|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 7:11:38 GMT -6
Little bit of glaze here in Brighton this morning. Was expecting more sleet/snow than ZR...guess there was no snow growth in the column.
GEFS mean remains remarkably consistent with the track of the SLP through the benchmark next week...this latest run has it near 990mb as it lifts into the lower OHV.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Feb 25, 2023 7:58:40 GMT -6
Check out the EPS. We now have a cohesive low at 850mb and its pretty close to the benchmark. I'm just sayin...
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 8:03:45 GMT -6
Check out the EPS. We now have a cohesive low at 850mb and its pretty close to the benchmark. I'm just sayin... The GEFS actually tracks the mean 850mb low across the Metro along I70...a blend of the two paints a pretty picture. |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Feb 25, 2023 8:10:03 GMT -6
Check out the EPS. We now have a cohesive low at 850mb and its pretty close to the benchmark. I'm just sayin... The GEFS actually tracks the mean 850mb low across the Metro along I70...a blend of the two paints a pretty picture. Yep. And the GEPS is right down the middle of the strike zone. A blend of the three paints a perfect picture. Let's hope the paint sticks. |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Feb 25, 2023 8:11:07 GMT -6
Had a very light glaze on the cars this morning that has quickly melted in St.peters, low last night was 31 so it was very borderline.
Im ready to put winter to bed and see what the spring snow season brings, as if March actually produces starting late next week I am going to just say we have experienced a heck of a seasonal shift for our snow season here.
I am not excited yet but cautiously optimistic we can get one solid snow the next 30 days.
Have a great weekend guys and thank you for all the information you all contribute.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 25, 2023 9:09:15 GMT -6
Lock in # 17  |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 9:10:03 GMT -6
The GEFS actually tracks the mean 850mb low across the Metro along I70...a blend of the two paints a pretty picture. Yep. And the GEPS is right down the middle of the strike zone. A blend of the three paints a perfect picture. Let's hope the paint sticks. Very close to the benchmark for sure. Operational runs are likely too far suppressed considering how far N/NW their ensemble means are. Plus, there's not a lot to keep the storm from lifting...the block over the top isn't overly strong by that point and there's a SE ridge in place. I like where we sit currently. A bit quicker negative tilt/phase would put us solidly in the game.  |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 9:28:29 GMT -6
The uber low-res JMA has a nice hole in the QPF field around STL...lock it in, lol!
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2023 10:11:40 GMT -6
12z gfs is a straight blizzard for the metro.
Crazy
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 25, 2023 10:13:35 GMT -6
Hard to get a better upper level look than that GFS run  |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2023 10:20:22 GMT -6
12z ggem is suppressed unfortunately
|
|
|
|
Post by freezyfree on Feb 25, 2023 10:32:34 GMT -6
I know I should go back and look myself, but will ask anyway: what is the timeframe for this possible storm? Thank you!
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2023 10:34:04 GMT -6
I know I should go back and look myself, but will ask anyway: what is the timeframe for this possible storm? Thank you! Thursday night into Friday if it happens. Huge IF at the moment |
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 25, 2023 10:35:28 GMT -6
I know I should go back and look myself, but will ask anyway: what is the timeframe for this possible storm? Thank you! Thursday night into Friday if it happens. Huge IF at the moment That's "IF" in 60pt font. |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Feb 25, 2023 10:43:19 GMT -6
That is a a 976 mb Memphis low on the GFS. The outermost closed isobar is 1004 mb so that's a 28 mb cyclone. That's deep for our part of the country.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2023 10:44:51 GMT -6
12z Ukmet with a big jump north.
That is hugely important
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 25, 2023 10:54:11 GMT -6
Well the spread in the members is still huge, but the GEFS has a mean 992mb low pretty close to our wheelhouse  |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2023 11:00:44 GMT -6
Well the spread in the members is still huge, but the GEFS has a mean 992mb low pretty close to our wheelhouse Freaking beautiful |
|
|
|
Post by maddogchief on Feb 25, 2023 11:30:37 GMT -6
Lock in # 17 The takeaway from this map is that almost every member paints accumulating snowfall somewhere in the coverage area. A good trend indeed. |
|
|
|
Post by maddogchief on Feb 25, 2023 11:33:41 GMT -6
SPI forecast discussion isn’t too jazzed about the GEFS. But, they didn’t rule it out completely.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 25, 2023 12:22:45 GMT -6
Marginal risk for the area tomorrow on the latest update
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2023 12:30:03 GMT -6
At 126h it looks like the Euro will be coming north some this run potentially Came a little north, but not like the Ukmet. Hopefully, the EPS is good. |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Feb 25, 2023 12:43:13 GMT -6
Yea I spoke too soon not much change
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2023 13:24:20 GMT -6
12z EPS is a touch east of 00z.
Some nice members on the west side of the envelope.
We shall see.
Definitely west of the operational model.
The 12z Ukmet was the real win this model suite.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 13:40:33 GMT -6
Nice to see the UKIE jump on board but the GEM/EC operationals are still solidly in the sheared/suppressed camp. Given how the EC has performed lately, I'd put more weight in the phased/NW solution of the GOOFUS/UK. The GFS was the first to jump north with the last big storm that hit MN IIRC, so that gives it some credence.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 13:45:29 GMT -6
12z GEFS still pretty much right through the wheelhouse with the SLP/850/500 features...maybe even a tick NW of where you'd like it. Great spot for this range with about half the guidance further S/E.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 25, 2023 15:00:31 GMT -6
Not sure whether to believe the NAM or not, but it's still showing an isolated but extremely favorable severe environment early Monday morning as the squall line blows through here. 64kts of 0-3km shear is nuts  |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 25, 2023 15:08:53 GMT -6
Right over downtown
Edit: Guess Chris deleted it  |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 25, 2023 15:17:55 GMT -6
SREF mean sounding isn't nearly as bullish on instability  |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 25, 2023 15:25:15 GMT -6
Huge shift northwest on the 18z Icon.
Looks to have joined the major winter storm for our area team.
Heck yeah!
|
|
