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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 1, 2023 12:01:40 GMT -6
well since it's not going to snow here..
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Post by cardsnweather on Mar 1, 2023 12:11:32 GMT -6
EURO is bonkers... for NC IL up through Chicago
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 1, 2023 12:18:47 GMT -6
EURO is bonkers... for NC IL up through Chicago I still think we're in the game for some heavy, wet snow but it's gonna be close. Can't turn your back on such a powerful, dynamic system like this. Definitely a SE trend with the last couple cycles. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 1, 2023 12:24:04 GMT -6
EURO is bonkers... for NC IL up through Chicago At 10-1 ratios the euro gives me 16 inches of snow 😂 We are inside 60 hours and it is so depressing to see such a cool map and know the reality won’t match that at all. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 1, 2023 12:37:18 GMT -6
Wherever the upper level low and cool pool tracks could be in line for some pockets of grauple/large sleet or even small hail as there is some instability shown on the NAM and even the others, just that the NAM brings it right through St. Louis metro while the other models keep it all just to the south. This system will have some tricks up it's sleeve for sure.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 1, 2023 12:41:29 GMT -6
Finally slowly jumping on the cold train for mid March, in fact things could get rather interesting in our wheelhouse between the 12 to 15th of the month. Would like to wait a few more days before jumping fully on board and see what the latest weekly readings are on the PNA, MJO, and if the NAO and AO blocks can remain intact. If we can swing the MJO into phases 1 and 2 we could be in business.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 1, 2023 12:47:05 GMT -6
Also by tonight models should be getting a full sampling of all the bits and pieces of Thursday into Friday's system so tracks and any associated cold air, dynamics should be taken into account and we should have a pretty uniform consensus as for sensible conditions and how things will play out, but given the dynamics of the thing there is likely to be some surprises.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 1, 2023 13:08:20 GMT -6
12z EPS still has a lot of sub 980mb lows.
Pressure record remains in jeopardy.
Ideally, the low strengthens and bombs out as it crosses into Illinois before rapidly occluding.
This will help with dynamic cooling.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 1, 2023 13:10:21 GMT -6
nice snowstorm on day 10 of euro.
for Dallas and Little Rock
most likely scenario
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 1, 2023 13:53:41 GMT -6
The storm system for late this week was originally modeled to bring 12 plus inches to dallas.
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Post by landscaper on Mar 1, 2023 14:14:53 GMT -6
Yes models all beyond stink in the extended into mid March
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 1, 2023 14:15:13 GMT -6
12z EPS still has a lot of sub 980mb lows. Pressure record remains in jeopardy. Ideally, the low strengthens and bombs out as it crosses into Illinois before rapidly occluding. This will help with dynamic cooling. Still seems too far NW and amped...GFS/GEFS came right back in line with earlier runs that were further S. EC has been all over the place...from deeply suppressed to almost the NW outlier with a cutter ala NAM. The GEM started out suppressed like the EC but once it picked up on the phasing it's been pretty dead nuts and the GFS came towards it's solution the past couple runs. Basically, I don't trust the EC right now. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 1, 2023 14:15:58 GMT -6
They all show plenty of cold building and some storms somewhere in the region through Mid March
Not sure how that is bad at this lead time lol.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 1, 2023 14:21:25 GMT -6
Perhaps cold by march standards.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 1, 2023 14:26:05 GMT -6
Perhaps cold by march standards. I mean, it just has to be 32 degrees for winter precip and we are talking about sub freezing temps which is the whole point. Nobody said 0 degrees in STL. The context that it is March should make that obvious. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 1, 2023 14:29:00 GMT -6
18z nam has a raging blizzard for kirksville.
20+ inches of snow at 10-1 ratios and around 12 inches of projected positive snow depth.
978mb low directly over STL.
It is trending southeast.
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Post by cardsnweather on Mar 1, 2023 14:30:42 GMT -6
18z will come to fruition. That is pretty much the path I have been thinking since I saw this thing.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 1, 2023 14:38:11 GMT -6
18z will come to fruition. That is pretty much the path I have been thinking since I saw this thing. It has 50-70mph winds across the region. Heavy wet snow and those winds would lead to significant tree damage and power outages. Of course, it’s probably completely wrong. But this is what the nam is good for. Generating extreme scenarios that are fun to look at. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 1, 2023 14:40:30 GMT -6
We all know it's March. We all know extreme cold won't happen in March, it'll be 'March Cold'. We all know what the models showed 8 days ago is totally different than what is actually happening. It'll be the same 10 days from now. All of this is very obvious.
Almost as obvious as the fact we won't get snow on Friday lol.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 1, 2023 14:45:01 GMT -6
18Z NAM 3KM shows a lot of activity under the low on Friday with some low topped thunderstorms and concludes with a fast thump of very wet snow at the end. I'd take that for 1000 Alex.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 1, 2023 14:45:57 GMT -6
Looking forward to 50 mph gust and blinding heavy rain
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 1, 2023 14:58:55 GMT -6
Looking forward to 50 mph gust and blinding heavy rain You might end up within an hour drive of 2 inch per hour snow. Could be worth a day of PTO. Worst case scenario, you get a 3 day weekend. |
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 1, 2023 15:01:55 GMT -6
18Z NAM has this going down to 978mb. ECMWF and GFS goes down to 982mb and 980mb respectively. Will we go sub 980mb?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 1, 2023 15:10:45 GMT -6
Looking forward to 50 mph gust and blinding heavy rain You might end up within an hour drive of 2 inch per hour snow. Could be worth a day of PTO. Worst case scenario, you get a 3 day weekend. If I took a day off I’d probably head to southern IL to chase. Only problem is you would need a damn NASCAR to keep up with the storms lol  |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 1, 2023 15:31:02 GMT -6
Perhaps cold by march standards. I mean, it just has to be 32 degrees for winter precip and we are talking about sub freezing temps which is the whole point. Nobody said 0 degrees in STL. The context that it is March should make that obvious. [br 32 is a stretch. Upper 30s to mid 40s. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 1, 2023 15:42:42 GMT -6
I mean, it just has to be 32 degrees for winter precip and we are talking about sub freezing temps which is the whole point. Nobody said 0 degrees in STL. The context that it is March should make that obvious. [br 32 is a stretch. Upper 30s to mid 40s. 850s go well below zero later next week with deep northerly flow setting in. Seems like there's a lot of assumptions being made based on the fact that it's been a mild winter when there's a major pattern change underway that points to a significantly colder pattern emerging next week. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 1, 2023 15:47:05 GMT -6
[br 32 is a stretch. Upper 30s to mid 40s. 850s go well below zero later next week with deep northerly flow setting in. Seems like there's a lot of assumptions being made based on the fact that it's been a mild winter when there's a major pattern change underway that points to a significantly colder pattern emerging next week. Yeah, your claim is not at all supported. EPS is easily getting temps into the low to mid 20s in the extended period. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 1, 2023 16:03:23 GMT -6
The 19z NBM really killed off most of the accumulating snow for MO  |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 1, 2023 16:03:32 GMT -6
And i think with the higher sun angle temps wont go as low as what youd expect from an 850 0 isotherm. Also models have backed off the cold every time this winter as we get closer. I fully expect persistence in the overall pattern as well. But rather than argue about it, lets see how it plays out in 2 weeks.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 1, 2023 16:10:07 GMT -6
Persistence with a major pattern change?
It's a bold strategy, Cotton...let's see if it pays off for 'em.
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