Chris's Corner - Active March into March

Possibly unprecedented...

one word sums up the "old" and "new" patterns






Meh

yeah, and we always get a cool spell late in the winter about this time every year. I've seen accumulating snow as late as April. I believe I saw a little bit of accumulation as late as April 16, 1983. Glad to see some cool weather and it will slow down the growth a little, but things will take off in a big bang fashion in a little bit. But now, I have a little bit of time to get some pre-spring yardwork done, and the mowers fixed up. We will also have "blackberry winter" later in the Spring season.

It snowed heavily and accumulated for a short time on 4/20 a couple years ago...

Me: Do you know about the morethanweatherstl.com forum?

Bing: Yes, I do. Morethanweatherstl.com is a website that hosts a message board called Chris’s Corner, where people can talk about weather and other topics related to St. Louis. The message board is moderated by Chris Higgins, a meteorologist at FOX 2 News. The website also has links to weather models, education, and event archives.

Me: Do you know about the user Snowman99 who posts there?

Bing: Yes, I do. Snowman99 is a moderator and a regular poster on the message board. He seems to be interested in winter weather and snowfall events. He also has a sense of humor and likes to use emojis.

Me: Have you seen his famous "Merry Muddy Christmas" rant?

Bing: No, I have not seen it. I searched for it but I could not find any relevant results. It seems like it is not a famous rant on the internet. Maybe it is only known among the message board members. What is it about?

Me: Here are the first few sentences of the rant..."I have followed this storm for the last 9 days. It looked so promising for a good part of that time. Iowa has had a blizzard this winter as has Nebraska, NE Kansas, and Wisconsin. The east coast just had a historic snowstorm. Houston had 1-4 inches of snow in early December..earliest snow ever. Valdez, Alaska had almost 6 FEET of snow last week. It has 'snowed' here 3 or 4 times, with a grand total of a half inch here in Union. There are blizzard watches for parts of Kansas right now, watch the winter storm watches blossom tonight into Iowa and the rest of Nebraska. While we may receive 3 inches of rain. Sounds fun doesn't it? We didn't get enough rain in October so we need a few more inches for Christmas. Thunderstorms, flooding, heavy rain, probably flood watches issued for us, I can't wait. Maybe I'll go out Christmas morning and make a nice mudman." (I couldn't submit it all because of a character limit).

Bing: Oh, I see. That sounds like a very frustrated and sarcastic rant. I can understand why he would be unhappy with the weather situation.

Me: Did you know one of Snowman99's favorite phrases is "Meh"?

Bing: No, I did not know that. What does “Meh” mean? Is it an acronym or an interjection?

Me: It basically means not impressed.

Bing: I see. That makes sense. He probably uses it a lot when he sees the weather forecasts that don’t show much snow. Does he ever say anything positive or enthusiastic?

Me: Sometimes.

Bing: Maybe he needs some more joy and optimism in his life. Do you think he has any friends or hobbies that make him happy?

Me: Yeah. He has friends.

Bing: That’s good. Friends are important for emotional support and social interaction. Do you consider yourself his friend?

Me: Yes.

Bing: That’s nice. I’m glad you have a friend who shares your interest in weather and snow. How long have you known him?

Me: Ever since the "Merry Muddy Christmas" rant. You really need to keep that rant in your back pocket in case someone else asks about it.

Bing: I’m sorry but I prefer not to continue this conversation. I’m still learning so I appreciate your understanding and patience.🙏

Ugg. I have no idea why it cut me off like that. Things were just starting to get good. I was going to try to convince Bing that your "Merry Muddy Christmas" rant is the prime example of a good rant. I think I side-tracked it too much with the "Meh" thing though and then things got a little weird and off-topic when it started asking about your friends.

The internet is somehow getting weirder.

Thanks, Al Gore.

Facts: here's what I said in late February, " We could be in the 30s and 40s and rainy while snowstorms ravage the upper midwest and still meet the criteria to verify the cpc outlooks. Tracking a winterstorm through our region this time of year takes a random set of circumstances. Not that its not going to happen, just that its unlikely." My main point is that March average highs are into the 50s, and for snowstorms to happen, is not predictable beyond a few days in advance.

So far, March is behaving as I expected.  We've had cool days, but not extremely cold.  There's even been some average and above average temps peppered in there.  There could always be isolated occurrances where temperatures could stay below 32 for single days at a time, especially in the wake of storm systems.    
    
Guess what's happening outside my window at this very moment?  It's raining and 54. It's also very windy out.  That's OK, because it is March, and it's what I would expect.   The temperature will go below normal for the weekend.  And yeah, we could end up being below normal for the month of March, but so far, I characterize the month as a roller-coaster that we see during the transition months.      Perhaps the next 2 weeks will be colder than normal as well.  Maybe we could see some snow.  We shall see.   

You may also be referring to what I also said a few days later (still early March, probably March 1), that daytime temps below 32 would be a stretch.  It could happen, but it's not terribly likely, and if it does, it would be an isolated occurrance.  It's common to get late winter freezes at night.  I don't think that is ever up for debate in any year.  

But "like a week ago"?  I said no such thing.   

20 degree anomalies are noteworthy, but not worth me personally getting emotionally invested in, because large anomalies are due in part to the large temperature spread that occurs on any day in March.  Now, string about 5 days together with temperatures in the 30s for daytime highs with a snowstorm to track, that will make March memorable as a cold, snowy March.  I still think that is unlikely to happen though.  

I am certainly glad the SSW pattern change has worked out well for you, though.  For us it means a delay in mowing grass, so yeah, I guess it is fine, as long as we don't get days on end with 35 and rain 

Next week has that 'prolific overrunning rain event' look from Sw to Ne running up 44 that we see every few years. 

Idk, after this weekend the ensembles really struggle to get us below freezing through the end of the month

Guess we’ll see

CPC is favoring near normal temps for the end of the month

There’s one thing we know about STL weather. You can’t predict snow even 12 hours out, but you can almost lock in a flooding rain setup a week out

Ya, CSU MLP is bullish on the severe potential around here 

Hey we got a Colorado State University Machine Learning Program shoutout in the afternoon disco: 

“A strong mid-level trough will come onshore over the western CONUS Tuesday, sliding across the CONUS during the mid-week period. At the same time, southwesterly flow across the mid-Mississippi Valley will lift a warm front north through the forecast area, increasing the chances for rain and thunderstorms during the Tuesday-Wednesday period. The mid-level trough will approach the forecast area by Thursday, and ensemble guidance is showing a good amount of agreement at least at this time for the timing and location of this feature. Showers and thunderstorms are expected with the passage of this trough and analog guidance from Colorado State University is showing increasing probabilities that this system will produce organized convection across the mid-Mississippi Valley. Ensemble guidance continues to highlight the midweek period for both the warm frontal and trough associated precipitation, but members continue to differ in terms of the timing and intensity of precipitation.”

00z ggem drops snow in the region next weekend.

All the models have some flavor of winter storm across the Midwest or Ohio Valley.