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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 15, 2023 19:33:35 GMT -6
Guess our heat forecast next week will feel like a Winters Day compared to this...
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 16, 2023 6:53:46 GMT -6
Continuing to study the models it appears that the heat wave won't be as bad as I expected (big surprise right?) While the Upper Level Ridge's core does poke into the Bi-State region the 'Thermal Ridge' (Area of greatest temps aloft) will just graze us mainly on Sunday and possibly into Monday making those the hottest days of the week and the best shot of 100+F degree heat. Other then that, we are on the leeward side of the ridge which keeps us in northwest flow aloft and keeps temps pretty close to climatological temp values for most of the period. Does look like some tropical action might slip into the gulf towards the middle of the week which might need an eye kept on it. CFS starting to back down on the super hot compared to normal September and going back to a generally seasonable to slightly cooler then normal Fall overall.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 16, 2023 7:00:11 GMT -6
Other more interesting weather news is that it looks like California might be taking a direct or at least indirect hit from as as of yet named tropical system (should be named today) as it general tracks pole ward into the Baja region of Mexico or just east of it and into southern California over the next 5-6 days, possibly as still a decent tropical storm or even a minor Hurricane depending on how much land it has to travel to get to California and how strong it ultimately becomes.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Aug 16, 2023 8:43:19 GMT -6
Pouring here, that was a surprise! Nothing here. It was a very small shower.  |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Aug 16, 2023 13:25:24 GMT -6
Very tiny shower.
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Post by Jeffmw on Aug 16, 2023 14:16:08 GMT -6
Doesn’t look like this heat blast will last that long anyone else thinks that?
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 16, 2023 15:16:12 GMT -6
Doesn’t look like this heat blast will last that long anyone else thinks that? Ya fingers crossed |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Aug 16, 2023 15:33:59 GMT -6
Probably into the middle part of next week.
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Post by mosue56 on Aug 16, 2023 16:48:26 GMT -6
Long enough! That’ll be great!
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Post by cardsnweather on Aug 17, 2023 6:51:10 GMT -6
It sucks but I can handle a little heat in August because the end is near!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 17, 2023 7:02:11 GMT -6
Something abt late august/september heat that makes it more tolerable. Generally its less humid but with the recent rain i dont think that will be the case. It does seem that the heat this time of year holds on a bit longer than often progged every year, so im not letting my guard down.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 17, 2023 10:25:25 GMT -6
Wow that front is flying!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 17, 2023 10:28:44 GMT -6
Nice little picturesque line of storms on radar. I'm even getting some thunder.
 Edited to add - just had a quick 1 minute shower |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 17, 2023 11:19:16 GMT -6
Hurricane Hilary (could be a major hurricane soon) formed overnight in the Eastern Pacific as expected and is targeting southern California and the west coast of the Baja Mexico Region. Seems like the planet getting angry again! In Canada the entire city of Yellowknife in the Northwest Territories had to be abandoned due to Wildfires surrounding the city. They are air lifting people out of there. Monster heatwave is about to envelope almost the entire populated regions of the North American Continent, while excessive heat looks to surge into southern and central Europe as well. Typhoon has also been kicking around Japan for a couple of days. Does look like eastern Siberia will be chilling down and getting snow covered here in the next couple of weeks as well as Scandinavia, which should get the snowpack building towards the end of the month into September.
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Post by bdgwx on Aug 17, 2023 12:06:20 GMT -6
The last and only known tropical storm to make landfall in California was in 1939.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 17, 2023 13:26:51 GMT -6
The last and only known tropical storm to make landfall in California was in 1939. There's been remnants more recently than that, correct? |
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Post by bdgwx on Aug 17, 2023 13:37:26 GMT -6
The last and only known tropical storm to make landfall in California was in 1939. There's been remnants more recently than that, correct? Correct. They've had several remnants actually; too many to list. And they had a hurricane skirt the shore in 1858. There has been no known bona-fide hurricane landfall AFAIK. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 17, 2023 17:43:40 GMT -6
Most Hurricane Model guidance depicts a southern California Landfall as a Tropical Storm with a couple even showing a weak borderline Hurricane.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 17, 2023 17:45:12 GMT -6
Meanwhile our Ridge could reach 603 DM @ the 500MB level which is pretty much the upper top of Climatology and about as strong as these upper ridges can get. I expect Excessive Heat Watches to be hoisted tomorrow for Sunday till at least Wednesday. This looks to be one of those go big or go home heatwaves. Take it easy next week!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 17, 2023 17:54:38 GMT -6
So the heat is trending upward again?
I'm so confused...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 17, 2023 18:58:01 GMT -6
There is no question that Hillary has been giving the models fits in terms of how to handle downstream ridging and heat. But not that Hillary is a real, trackable entity, the modeling has settled down some ans any hope there was of a short break in the heat early next week seems to have vaporized.
One thing that will be interesting is how the surface temperatures respond the the massive pile of high heights ce ntered over the Midwest. I have no doubt it will be plenty hot and humid here. However, to reach 100+ here you almost always need a southwest wind of some magnitude. That is a missing ingredient for at least the first few days of the heat which has given me some pause on rushing to 100 in the forecast. However, by next week aa the ridge axis drifts east a bit, the low level flow picks up more of a westerly component... and that's when I think we have our best shot at triple digits. It is all fairly unimportant because the difference between 98 and 101 is negligible. It will be dangerously hot and humid for the longest stretch of the summer.
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Post by bdgwx on Aug 17, 2023 18:58:14 GMT -6
I heard a 600 DM ridge is coming. I can't figure out where it's going to be though. Can you guys help me out?  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 17, 2023 20:13:29 GMT -6
There is no question that Hillary has been giving the models fits in terms of how to handle downstream ridging and heat. But not that Hillary is a real, trackable entity, the modeling has settled down some ans any hope there was of a short break in the heat early next week seems to have vaporized. One thing that will be interesting is how the surface temperatures respond the the massive pile of high heights ce ntered over the Midwest. I have no doubt it will be plenty hot and humid here. However, to reach 100+ here you almost always need a southwest wind of some magnitude. That is a missing ingredient for at least the first few days of the heat which has given me some pause on rushing to 100 in the forecast. However, by next week aa the ridge axis drifts east a bit, the low level flow picks up more of a westerly component... and that's when I think we have our best shot at triple digits. It is all fairly unimportant because the difference between 98 and 101 is negligible. It will be dangerously hot and humid for the longest stretch of the summer. Lovely.... 😳🥵😫 |
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Raja72
Weather Weenie
Waterloo, IL
Posts: 47 
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Post by Raja72 on Aug 17, 2023 20:30:29 GMT -6
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Raja72
Weather Weenie
Waterloo, IL
Posts: 47
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Post by Raja72 on Aug 17, 2023 20:46:32 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 17, 2023 20:47:40 GMT -6
Starlink
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Raja72
Weather Weenie
Waterloo, IL
Posts: 47
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Post by Raja72 on Aug 17, 2023 21:12:49 GMT -6
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Post by REB on Aug 18, 2023 6:19:04 GMT -6
I know Chris answered but I would have said "Santa doing a trial run". |
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Raja72
Weather Weenie
Waterloo, IL
Posts: 47
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Post by Raja72 on Aug 18, 2023 6:25:19 GMT -6
I know Chris answered but I would have said "Santa doing a trial run". Hahaha! I like that answer better! |
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Post by amstilost on Aug 18, 2023 7:07:43 GMT -6
Yes, your posting/link worked fine. My daughter in Park Hills called me at 9:07pm last night to go out and look but as I was walking out in the yard she was saying they are 'disappearing'. I never did see them. There is an upcoming launch fron Vandenberg, CA that has been scrubbed a couple times so far. Now launch is scheduled for Tuesday, Aug 22 1:04 AM our time. |
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