FINALLY... A NEW THREAD... Smells like a new car!
Aug 6, 2023 9:59:33 GMT -6
REB, WEAXWATCHER, and 1 more like this
Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 6, 2023 9:59:33 GMT -6
Ok… this is beyond overdue and I am truly sorry. The demands of wrapping up my military career and just the all around pace of our active summer weather has kept me hopping. But now, the retirement ceremony is in the books and I can start getting back to weather. Also, maybe I can finally catch up to my task of putting the blog behind the password wall. Time will tell lol.
Speaking of weather… interesting set-up today for severe weather (again). The SPC outlook may be a touch generous to the west today with the SLT (level 2) but I understand the idea of leaving some wiggle room especially with so many variables in play. I am focused on the northeast metro…and points east into southern Illinois…generally along and north of I-70. The threat for the Missouri side of the river will be largely dependent on how quickly the atmosphere can recover after this quick round of late morning showers and how fast the wind shift with the front kicks east. The unusually strong 500mb shortwave and associated speed max along with the surface low reflection does give some reason for concern for a couple of tornadoes in the above-mentioned region… although that tornado threat may end up a little further northeast if winds pivot more southwesterly in the low levels. Less backing will lower the helicity and "weaken" the hodograph compared to the rather pronounced hooking we saw in some models yesterday. It’s not a “super-charged” severe weather risk, but I do think the Level 2 is warranted for isolated coverage of severe potential … especially in that area I mentioned north of I-70 in Illinois and the northeast metro.
There are two scenarios that I see with how this midday garbage might mix things up this afternoon.
1) It slows the re-charge of the instability and things never get going in our region ahead of the surface trigger/front.... or
2) It leaves behind a boundary that results in slightly more backed surface flow...enhancing the low level turning/hodographs. This in conjunction with clearing skies, destabilizing atmosphere and front that arrives as modeled late this afternoon would make things interesting.
So, we watch, wait and see what happens. Not a day to raise the alarm bells too high... but also not a day to completely ignore either.
Speaking of weather… interesting set-up today for severe weather (again). The SPC outlook may be a touch generous to the west today with the SLT (level 2) but I understand the idea of leaving some wiggle room especially with so many variables in play. I am focused on the northeast metro…and points east into southern Illinois…generally along and north of I-70. The threat for the Missouri side of the river will be largely dependent on how quickly the atmosphere can recover after this quick round of late morning showers and how fast the wind shift with the front kicks east. The unusually strong 500mb shortwave and associated speed max along with the surface low reflection does give some reason for concern for a couple of tornadoes in the above-mentioned region… although that tornado threat may end up a little further northeast if winds pivot more southwesterly in the low levels. Less backing will lower the helicity and "weaken" the hodograph compared to the rather pronounced hooking we saw in some models yesterday. It’s not a “super-charged” severe weather risk, but I do think the Level 2 is warranted for isolated coverage of severe potential … especially in that area I mentioned north of I-70 in Illinois and the northeast metro.
There are two scenarios that I see with how this midday garbage might mix things up this afternoon.
1) It slows the re-charge of the instability and things never get going in our region ahead of the surface trigger/front.... or
2) It leaves behind a boundary that results in slightly more backed surface flow...enhancing the low level turning/hodographs. This in conjunction with clearing skies, destabilizing atmosphere and front that arrives as modeled late this afternoon would make things interesting.
So, we watch, wait and see what happens. Not a day to raise the alarm bells too high... but also not a day to completely ignore either.
