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Post by stegenwx on Jan 9, 2024 8:31:55 GMT -6
it should be an arrestable offense to look at the NAM past 48 hours Wasn't it correct with the northward shift of this storm? Thought the NAM showed it first Friday night (after Hurricane Hunters) and the GFS / Euro followed. But generally speaking I agree with you, less than reliable outside of 36-48. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 9, 2024 8:39:52 GMT -6
it should be an arrestable offense to look at the NAM past 48 hours Hey, some people are into fantasy novels. Of course though, the NAM led the pack this storm….”Ah, the NAM is out to lunch with its northern solution. NAM at 84 hours is comical. Don’t look at the NAM past 48 hours.” Well, where’s our Tuesday monster??? North and wildly juiced. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 9, 2024 8:43:55 GMT -6
Well if we rely on the nam its all rain. Sunday looks to be our best shot
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 8:45:48 GMT -6
12z nam puts too much energy out front in the northern wave preventing the southern low from amplifying in time to generate a robust deformation zone.
Storm doesn’t come together until Indiana
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2024 8:46:00 GMT -6
meh..it had the low in Iowa. It's currently sitting right over us
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 8:47:41 GMT -6
meh..it had the low in Iowa. It's currently sitting right over us Agreed, it was way west and wrong. The other models, especially the ggem/rgem, were too far southeast. Additionally, the hurricane hunter data makes it a little unfair because the other models didn’t have that for their previous runs they are being judged on. |
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Post by birddog on Jan 9, 2024 8:57:04 GMT -6
Had a dusting of snow at 10:30 last night.
The good thing about this event is the .76" of much needed rain. Would have preferred snow but if we can't get that then bring on the much needed rain.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 9, 2024 9:12:12 GMT -6
Well if we rely on the nam its all rain. Sunday looks to be our best shot I disagree on Sunday. That has suppression city and DAM written all over it. 1053 H pushing south. Our best chance is Friday or middle of next week or 2 more weeks  |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 9, 2024 9:12:16 GMT -6
Looking at Storm Prediction Center surface map on the meso analysis for the nation that is a big old low pressure system, was right over us hour or so ago. And looking at the RAP2, 4, and 6 hour model forecast from an hour ago it had a 4-Hour spread where it went from 990 down to 982. Now it doesn't get till 982 until the 6-hour mark and it's right over the borders of Indiana and Ohio. And I don't have the computer space or speed or knowledge to go back and look to see which model did the best but I think that would be neat to know for everybody.
Sky really lightened up 7 miles west of DeSoto. Temperature a bone chilling 40°.
This crap really blows.🤬
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 9:15:47 GMT -6
12z rgem has a great track.
Have to extrapolate a frame or 2, but looks like a 2-5 or 3-6 inches with potential periods of blizzard conditions.
A nice run, and actually could be 6+ inches for some parts of the area.
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 9, 2024 9:27:56 GMT -6
12z rgem has a great track. Have to extrapolate a frame or 2, but looks like a 2-5 or 3-6 inches with potential periods of blizzard conditions. A nice run, and actually could be 6+ inches for some parts of the area. For what day? |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2024 9:29:39 GMT -6
friday
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2024 9:40:36 GMT -6
it should be an arrestable offense to look at the NAM past 48 hours I saw that. Remember the good ol' days when we'd talk about getting dry-slotted. It's nice to see that this mode of getting screwed is still on the table these days. |
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Post by dgl1004-Moberly, MO on Jan 9, 2024 9:45:04 GMT -6
This snow just looks like a heart attack waiting to happen when shoveling the driveway. My 12 year old will definitely have to help me out.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 9, 2024 9:46:20 GMT -6
Good news: Icon is moist and strong
Bad news: It is like a repeat of yesterday
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 9, 2024 9:48:45 GMT -6
Icon still gets a few inches of blizzard like weather
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 9, 2024 9:54:09 GMT -6
Gfs is gonna be good
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 9, 2024 9:55:19 GMT -6
GFS threads the needle and hits the CWA hard. Would be a major winter storm if that run verified.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 9, 2024 10:02:33 GMT -6
The GFS shows a janky 850 mb low. It doesn't really get fully closed off until it's up there near Michigan.
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Post by stegenwx on Jan 9, 2024 10:04:50 GMT -6
For Friday: GEM shows a 987 Memphis low and we get rain. Classic stuff.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2024 10:08:36 GMT -6
gem further south a bit than last night...several inches on backside
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 9, 2024 10:12:09 GMT -6
For Friday: GEM shows a 987 Memphis low and we get rain. Classic stuff. I would bet on a quicker transition on the NW side of the low given recent trends, dynamics, and upper level temps. I think we are still in play here. Also, most models are shifting south in general. And don't forget the blue norther Sunday...that is looking very steady. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 9, 2024 10:14:38 GMT -6
It's going to be a long rest of the week and weekend. Im too old for a week of sleepless nights.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2024 10:16:25 GMT -6
One of the longest weeks in a loooooooong time. Let's hope the payoff is a good one this time,instead of all for nothin'
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 9, 2024 10:17:55 GMT -6
If recent history is any indication... I'll just wait for it to start or miss.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 9, 2024 10:23:04 GMT -6
Everyone complained that November and December were boring. This may not be what you wanted but it's not boring.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 9, 2024 10:28:20 GMT -6
The GEFS continues to look solid for Friday
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 9, 2024 10:33:56 GMT -6
The GEFS continues to look solid for Friday Yep... And shows 50% probability of 4+" for almost the entire area. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 9, 2024 10:47:57 GMT -6
ukie sucks
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 9, 2024 10:48:35 GMT -6
The GEFS continues to look solid for Friday 12z Ukmet shows the other extreme side of the outcome envelope. Extremely amped and north |
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