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Post by amstilost on Jan 10, 2024 20:57:24 GMT -6
Why does the model 'jump' the red 'L' around so much. At hr 39 we have a 988 L in NW Ark. 3 hrs later we have a 984 L north of STL. WTH I'm guessing that as it goes negative, it's deepening and redeveloping the low north So, if it stayed weaker, would we have a L in our 'wheelhouse'? Or is it not going to matter in this case since it would likely be rain? I had always understood (apparently wrongly) that a strengthening system 'manufactures' it's own cold air. What a waste these two storms have/could become, snow wise, for us. It is still a hell of a storm. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2024 21:05:00 GMT -6
I'm guessing that as it goes negative, it's deepening and redeveloping the low north So, if it stayed weaker, would we have a L in our 'wheelhouse'? Or is it not going to matter in this case since it would likely be rain? I had always understood (apparently wrongly) that a strengthening system 'manufactures' its own cold air. What a waste these two storms have/could become, snow wise, for us. It is still a hell of a storm. You want it to rapidly deepen just to the east to draw the cold air in. Need a dynamic system with perfect timing given the marginal temperatures. Too weak, and you’ll get a steady rain. Too strong and a bunch of warm air will get pumped up out ahead and it won’t matter. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 21:06:31 GMT -6
It's more how quickly we can get the 850 temps to wrap up... going negative quickens the process. The surface low jumping around will be a reflection of that.
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 10, 2024 21:06:55 GMT -6
Although it wasn't similar from a synoptic standpoint, I'm already thinking about 1/11/19, as I was one of those people who were on the road for nearly 6 hours trying to go 10 miles. The debate that day, as it should be for Friday, is whether people should be at school or work Friday morning. There's a good chance that it could be a complete big time swing and miss, but there is a realistic chance that Friday pm could be horrible.
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 10, 2024 21:12:15 GMT -6
Although it wasn't similar from a synoptic standpoint, I'm already thinking about 1/11/19, as I was one of those people who were on the road for nearly 6 hours trying to go 10 miles. The debate that day, as it should be for Friday, is whether people should be at school or work Friday morning. There's a good chance that it could be a complete big time swing and miss, but there is a realistic chance that Friday pm could be horrible. I was in that as well ironically trying to get from Illinois to Chesterfield were I was going to plow Snow for the next 36 hrs straight..turned into 43-44 after my 7-8 hr drive that normally takes just under an hour. That was a different set up entirely if I'm not mistaken and thinking same storm just a heavy thump of WWA Snow..like a foot in Chesterfield it just started right at 130-2 and the rest was history or in that case stand still to 5 mph total as soon as I past Busch stadium on 64.. |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 10, 2024 21:13:41 GMT -6
Although it wasn't similar from a synoptic standpoint, I'm already thinking about 1/11/19, as I was one of those people who were on the road for nearly 6 hours trying to go 10 miles. The debate that day, as it should be for Friday, is whether people should be at school or work Friday morning. There's a good chance that it could be a complete big time swing and miss, but there is a realistic chance that Friday pm could be horrible. Sorry you did mention different set up..my bad for speed reading..😬 |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 10, 2024 21:18:32 GMT -6
Icon shows the same thing as it goes negative and wraps that heavy snow around us.
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 10, 2024 21:30:55 GMT -6
Although it wasn't similar from a synoptic standpoint, I'm already thinking about 1/11/19, as I was one of those people who were on the road for nearly 6 hours trying to go 10 miles. The debate that day, as it should be for Friday, is whether people should be at school or work Friday morning. There's a good chance that it could be a complete big time swing and miss, but there is a realistic chance that Friday pm could be horrible. Sorry you did mention different set up..my bad for speed reading..😬 My point is that day didn't turn out that much different than what was forecast, and everyone assumed they could react in time if it turned out faster or stronger. That didn't work then, but fortunately it wasn't particularly cold or windy with that storm. Friday will have extreme winds and crashing temps regardless of what precipitation there is. |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 10, 2024 21:33:41 GMT -6
Sorry you did mention different set up..my bad for speed reading..😬 My point is that day didn't turn out that much different than what was forecast, and everyone assumed they could react in time if it turned out faster or stronger. That didn't work then, but fortunately it wasn't particularly cold or windy with that storm. Friday will have extreme winds and crashing temps regardless of what precipitation there is. I agree especially with Winds and Cold..could get real ugly fast..FYI. Snow Squall Warning now up in Iowa.. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 10, 2024 21:52:50 GMT -6
00z HRRR is showing thunderstorms Fri. I would've never thought we would be seeing possible thunderstorms then backside sleet/snow with dropping temps in the lower teens. A flash freeze is a big threat. Any residual water will freeze on any surface in less than an hr! Then less than 3 days later maybe 20/25 to 1 snow ratios. Then possible sub zero air temps and wind chills way below zero. Whatever happened to a snow storm when it's in the mid 20s to near 30* the whole time?
Expect the unexpected!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 10, 2024 22:15:04 GMT -6
This will hopefully keep your spirits up a bit... The in house IBMgraf model... which nailed last Friday's event 3+ days out and did a fantastic job with the early week system is printing out this...  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 10, 2024 22:20:22 GMT -6
I am NOT going to post a map from the IBM snowfall totals tonight. I don't want folks to latch on to the picture...
However, I will just say that under the circumstances and compared to other models... it is generous.
The model is printing out...2-4 along I-44 including STL City and points west...with 1-2 metro east.
And up to 8+ in Pike County! With 50-60 mph winds, etc.
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Post by grizzlebeard on Jan 10, 2024 22:27:27 GMT -6
If that were the scenario for 2-3 hours they would have to issue blizzard warnings. It's not winter storm criteria. That would be as high as impact it gets around here. Agree. I understand the concern about getting it wrong, but the point of those warnings to me is to make the public aware and ACT. The whole county gets a tornado warning not because it will wipe everyone out, but because the potential for damage is great and they have to get everyone's attention to keep them safe. I have NEVER been hit by a tornado, but have never felt it was a bust if I was in an area under a warning. I was grateful I knew to be aware of the risk. A few hours of high winds, flash freezing, snow and low visibility is a high impact, rare event. It needs more attention than the same warning about the potential for slick roads and 4-6 inches of snow. If it seems imminent, the NWS needs to step up and risk being wrong IMHO. A tough call. Lets hope if it verifies, everyone is safe. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 10, 2024 22:28:49 GMT -6
The GFS tries to wrap something up in our wheelhouse  |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 10, 2024 22:32:16 GMT -6
This will hopefully keep your spirits up a bit... The in house IBMgraf model... which nailed last Friday's event 3+ days out and did a fantastic job with the early week system is printing out this... Does it go out 96+ hours?  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2024 22:55:19 GMT -6
00z Ukmet with a massive snowstorm for MLK day in southern Missouri.
Wow
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2024 22:57:15 GMT -6
The UKMET goes crazy with the system Sunday/Monday This is qpf just in that timeframe With how cold the airmass will be, that would be a ton of snow for most of the area Southern counties would be buried  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 10, 2024 22:59:21 GMT -6
00z Ukmet with a massive snowstorm for MLK day in southern Missouri. Wow There is a massive difference between the models with how to handle that energy. The GFS just wants to shear it out and forget about it The euro camp wants to spin it up into a full fledge nor Easter |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 10, 2024 23:07:06 GMT -6
00z Ukmet with a massive snowstorm for MLK day in southern Missouri. Wow There is a massive difference between the models with how to handle that energy. The GFS just wants to shear it out and forget about it The euro camp wants to spin it up into a full fledge nor Easter Need it to spin up enough to get winds out of the northeast and you guys can have the rest. |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 10, 2024 23:52:33 GMT -6
So, if it stayed weaker, would we have a L in our 'wheelhouse'? Or is it not going to matter in this case since it would likely be rain? I had always understood (apparently wrongly) that a strengthening system 'manufactures' its own cold air. What a waste these two storms have/could become, snow wise, for us. It is still a hell of a storm. You want it to rapidly deepen just to the east to draw the cold air in. Need a dynamic system with perfect timing given the marginal temperatures. Too weak, and you’ll get a steady rain. Too strong and a bunch of warm air will get pumped up out ahead and it won’t matter. Thanks coz and WSC. Looks like GFS is going full Ice Age towards the end of the run |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 11, 2024 0:35:11 GMT -6
Just getting to finally look at the data since 12z yesterday...
I thought I'd be coming into a butch of negativity again on here. But to my surprise it's pretty positive. Keep the hope alive folks!
In all seriousness, even though we won't have huge amounts of snow. Anything that does fall will freeze quickly once the temperatures come crashing in!
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 11, 2024 0:37:11 GMT -6
00z Ukmet with a massive snowstorm for MLK day in southern Missouri. Wow Umm ya well, let's hope that comes north like the rest of them have been.... But like someone said either yesterday or the night before. It'll stay south and leave a void of snow right though STL. LOL. |
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