|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 11, 2024 1:55:17 GMT -6
I thought we needed to shake things up a bit and see if we couldn't make some magic happen for snow lovers. Here's my timeline and messaging for the upcoming winter storm. I almost threw in the words "Blizzard Like" but I wanted to wait and get one more model run tomorrow morning to see if the IBM model holds firm. It did a great job with last Friday's storm and did a super job handling the speed of the rain to snow changeover earlier this week. Here you go... have a good night!  |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 11, 2024 2:19:39 GMT -6
Maybe that MLK day storm will shift a bit north like every other low this week and we can eek out something decent.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 11, 2024 2:20:48 GMT -6
Maybe that MLK day storm will shift a bit north like every other low this week and we can eek out something decent. That's what I said too. 🤞 |
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 11, 2024 2:21:38 GMT -6
00z CFS, unfortunately shows that snow void right though STL like we are fearing Friday-Monday...
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 11, 2024 2:23:18 GMT -6
BTW other than cold is there anything else coming down the pipe next week?
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 11, 2024 2:33:19 GMT -6
BTW other than cold is there anything else coming down the pipe next week? Nope |
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 11, 2024 2:34:36 GMT -6
Yeah looks like the atmosphere will be taking a break...
Ugh....
|
|
giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
|
Post by giarC71 on Jan 11, 2024 3:46:16 GMT -6
The atmosphere will have to recharge ....
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 11, 2024 5:24:28 GMT -6
I guess it was bound to happen. It's been cranking pretty good for the last 10-14 days.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 11, 2024 6:29:03 GMT -6
This mornings run of the icon looks good for Sunday, and gfs is slightly better as well if I am seeing that correctly.
|
|
modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
|
Post by modracer on Jan 11, 2024 6:43:26 GMT -6
I was going to head down to our farm in S Illinois(Vienna), for the final days of deer season, but with thunderstorms, flash flooding with up to 2” of rain, and high winds now forecasted, I’m just going to write off this weekend at the farm. 🤦♂️
|
|
|
|
Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 11, 2024 8:01:31 GMT -6
I was going to head down to our farm in S Illinois(Vienna), for the final days of deer season, but with thunderstorms, flash flooding with up to 2” of rain, and high winds now forecasted, I’m just going to write off this weekend at the farm. 🤦♂️ This will be the weekend when the buck of a lifetime walks 20 yards away from your stand and mills around there for an hour! 🤣 |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 11, 2024 8:04:24 GMT -6
I was going to head down to our farm in S Illinois(Vienna), for the final days of deer season, but with thunderstorms, flash flooding with up to 2” of rain, and high winds now forecasted, I’m just going to write off this weekend at the farm. 🤦♂️ This will be the weekend when the buck of a lifetime walks 20 yards away from your stand and mills around there for an hour! 🤣 *Flies. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2024 8:32:51 GMT -6
NAM and 3km NAM both look better for a quick hit of backside snow tomorrow
The deformation precep looks convective on the 3km NAM simulated radar
May even have some thunder
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 11, 2024 8:46:58 GMT -6
need the cold air to crash in a couple hours earlier and we could get something halfway decent. Hope the in house model still shows what it did last night
|
|
|
|
Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Jan 11, 2024 8:57:21 GMT -6
need the cold air to crash in a couple hours earlier and we could get something halfway decent. Hope the in house model still shows what it did last night On Futurecast this morning, Angela showed something very similar to the image Chris showed here yesterday. |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 11, 2024 9:29:50 GMT -6
The spread in models at this point from a more regional impact (Midwest, not necessarily STL) level is kind of pathetic.
I’m not impressed with the short range models at all.
Globals did a great job picking this out at a big lead, so at least there is that.
|
|
|
|
Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 11, 2024 9:34:11 GMT -6
I think an early dismissal for schools tomorrow would be wise.
|
|
|
|
Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Jan 11, 2024 9:49:39 GMT -6
I think an early dismissal for schools tomorrow would be wise. I was just talking to someone in our building about this very thing. Dismissal looks like it could be a mess. |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 11, 2024 9:52:39 GMT -6
The 12Z GFS has the 850 mb low way up there at the MO/IA/IL border. Obviously that is way too far north for us to get anything substantial. It does look like there could be a 1-2 hour window for snow squalls tomorrow. We'll see how that plays out. Anyway the 13Z NBM is obviously light with the snow which isn't a surprise given the track. Hopefully we can at least get those snow squalls to get us over the 1" mark and to polish up this turd as we wait for our next disappointment.  |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 11, 2024 9:52:42 GMT -6
Some models have the changeover here in west areas around noon..even 10 or 11. And stl early to mid afternoon.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 11, 2024 9:56:36 GMT -6
Some models have the changeover here in west areas around noon..even 10 or 11. And stl early to mid afternoon. I'm really hoping some of it is convectivey. I want to see some meaty cellular like snow squalls tomorrow. I realize it is a low probability call, but some of the mesoscale models do at least hint at the possibility. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 11, 2024 9:58:40 GMT -6
Well we could get an inch on Sunday while we watch the entire state of Arkansas get 3-8. So there's that. This has been one if the worst weeks weatherwise ...snow wise ...model wise ever.
|
|
|
|
Post by chowderhead54 on Jan 11, 2024 10:00:53 GMT -6
I think an early dismissal for schools tomorrow would be wise. I was just talking to someone in our building about this very thing. Dismissal looks like it could be a mess. I know Waterloo at least the High School is on a scheduled half day already for MLK Weekend there out at 11:15. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 11, 2024 10:04:38 GMT -6
The GFS has a few rounds of light powder snow Sunday through Tuesday so there’s that
It seems like the models are hinting more at a trough developing early next week
That’s what the UKMET did last night when it went crazy across the area with snow
|
|
|
|
Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Jan 11, 2024 10:23:25 GMT -6
I was just talking to someone in our building about this very thing. Dismissal looks like it could be a mess. I know Waterloo at least the High School is on a scheduled half day already for MLK Weekend there out at 11:15. Yeah, the basketball games got moved up to tonight, which is a good idea, IMO. I teach in Jennings, and most of our kids walk or get picked up. I imagine if the wording gets ramped up for timing, a lot of our kids will get picked up early. |
|
bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
|
Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 11, 2024 10:25:33 GMT -6
ICON keeping hope alive for Sunday
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 11, 2024 10:46:53 GMT -6
Im not a fan of school closures due to impending bad weather. But if there was a time to do it, id probably call off tomorrow if i was in wentzville, wright city, warren troy, and points west. The reason being is there is nothing holding that front back and it seems possible that things could change earlier than expected. Part of this is the fact that schools are likely closed monday due to holiday. Might as well make it a longer weekend, and make the day up later. The other part of my thinking is that, we have had very little snow so far, and we are entering a dry period. The temps will likely begin to moderate during this downtime, and i dont see anything in the immediate future to take seriously in terms of winterstorm potential. So imo, we can probably take off 1 day and not effect the school calendar so why take the chance tomorrow, especially those districts to the nw of st louis.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 11, 2024 10:49:13 GMT -6
And shockingly the ukie now is basically a complete miss Sunday. I couldn't be more surprised if I woke up in the morning with my head sewn to the carpet. Pathetic
|
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Jan 11, 2024 10:58:21 GMT -6
And shockingly the ukie now is basically a complete miss Sunday. I couldn't be more surprised if I woke up in the morning with my head sewn to the carpet. Pathetic Nobody's walking out on this fun, old-fashioned Corner letdown. We're all in this together. We're going to press on...and then I can't write any more because the boss told us to keep it clean. |
|
