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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 5, 2024 10:17:35 GMT -6
The drought wins again... Sangamon got some. Amazing how central il can get rain.... |
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Post by mchafin on Mar 5, 2024 13:34:01 GMT -6
I'm also having more problems than usual trying to get any snow reports from the Sierras. I have looked on all the NWS sites in that area and not one of them has a link for recent snowfall totals or storm reports I've searched those sites and cannot find any. I seen a bunch of YouTube videos of stranded Vehicles up on I-80 by Donner Pass from the last several days but, again, I haven't seen any YouTube videos of anyone posting any snow videos or reports. You couldn't go anywhere 3, 4, 5 days before this "Epic Blizzard" hit without seeing something about it. Maybe everyone in that area has no power and can't get any information out. I just find that extremely strange and I'm sure it's operator error somewhere on my part.🤔🤪 Follow @tahoeweather on Twitter (won’t call it X, because that’s a stupid name). It gives you all sorts of data points. |
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Post by amstilost on Mar 5, 2024 22:16:08 GMT -6
I'm also having more problems than usual trying to get any snow reports from the Sierras. I have looked on all the NWS sites in that area and not one of them has a link for recent snowfall totals or storm reports I've searched those sites and cannot find any. I seen a bunch of YouTube videos of stranded Vehicles up on I-80 by Donner Pass from the last several days but, again, I haven't seen any YouTube videos of anyone posting any snow videos or reports. You couldn't go anywhere 3, 4, 5 days before this "Epic Blizzard" hit without seeing something about it. Maybe everyone in that area has no power and can't get any information out. I just find that extremely strange and I'm sure it's operator error somewhere on my part.🤔🤪 Follow @tahoeweather on Twitter (won’t call it X, because that’s a stupid name). It gives you all sorts of data points. Thanks mchafin, some pretty WILD videos of snowfall on there. If only that could happen here, for just 10-12 hours even. This place would go in meltdown.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 6, 2024 9:16:58 GMT -6
12z nam brings a brief period of very heavy snow to the metro Saturday morning.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 6, 2024 9:27:14 GMT -6
Heard some guy talking about the warmth and morels. I told him to not jump the gun
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 6, 2024 11:46:36 GMT -6
Heard some guy talking about the warmth and morels. I told him to not jump the gun Late freeze and stunted crop seems to be the standard any more...betting this year delivers on that |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 6, 2024 11:49:57 GMT -6
12z nam brings a brief period of very heavy snow to the metro Saturday morning. I did notice some of the models were showing some potential for a secondary with that a couple days ago. |
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 6, 2024 14:20:56 GMT -6
The GEFS ensemble is now in range. If you'll remember the 0Z cycle goes out to 840 hours, but it is lagged by almost a day. So right now we only have the 3/5 run available. There's about a 60-65% chance of clouds in the path of totality. It is my understanding that the GFS and GEFS do not simulate eclipses so this will probably result in a high bias in terms of cloud coverage due to the cloud thinning effect the eclipse itself causes. Obviously I question the skill even for a probabilistic ensemble this far out, but at least we can start gathering data and if nothing else do a time-lagged ensemble to get a better feel for the probabilities.
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 834
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Post by modracer on Mar 6, 2024 16:16:02 GMT -6
The warm weather and rain has the radishes, turnips and beets resprouting in all my plots at the farm. We’ve had over 10” of rain so far this year in deep S Illinois
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 6, 2024 16:43:20 GMT -6
The GEFS ensemble is now in range. If you'll remember the 0Z cycle goes out to 840 hours, but it is lagged by almost a day. So right now we only have the 3/5 run available. There's about a 60-65% chance of clouds in the path of totality. It is my understanding that the GFS and GEFS do not simulate eclipses so this will probably result in a high bias in terms of cloud coverage due to the cloud thinning effect the eclipse itself causes. Obviously I question the skill even for a probabilistic ensemble this far out, but at least we can start gathering data and if nothing else do a time-lagged ensemble to get a better feel for the probabilities. I would just look at April cloud cover rates within the region of totality and go with that. I estimate the 840 hour GEFS has a 0.1% skill level. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 6, 2024 17:25:22 GMT -6
The GEFS ensemble is now in range. If you'll remember the 0Z cycle goes out to 840 hours, but it is lagged by almost a day. So right now we only have the 3/5 run available. There's about a 60-65% chance of clouds in the path of totality. It is my understanding that the GFS and GEFS do not simulate eclipses so this will probably result in a high bias in terms of cloud coverage due to the cloud thinning effect the eclipse itself causes. Obviously I question the skill even for a probabilistic ensemble this far out, but at least we can start gathering data and if nothing else do a time-lagged ensemble to get a better feel for the probabilities. I would just look at April cloud cover rates within the region of totality and go with that. I estimate the 840 hour GEFS has a 0.1% skill level. Climo says 45 percent chance of clouds. Not great. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 6, 2024 18:16:29 GMT -6
Ensembles look downright cold later this month with a deep and persistent trof developing across the E US around the 15th with a west-based -NAO and -EPO.
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Post by let it snow11 on Mar 6, 2024 20:32:39 GMT -6
Ensembles look downright cold later this month with a deep and persistent trof developing across the E US around the 15th with a west-based -NAO and -EPO. The same thing happened last March, right as Spring began. I took a trip to the Gulf Coast and had to have a winter coat on the pier at Pensacola Beach. The cold air followed me all the way down there. It was not ideal. Honestly, late March and beyond cold snaps do not appeal to me at all. I'm hoping it's not so bad this year. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Mar 6, 2024 20:48:11 GMT -6
Ensembles look downright cold later this month with a deep and persistent trof developing across the E US around the 15th with a west-based -NAO and -EPO. I'm still sticking with my thought of a snowstorm the last part (2nd half) of March. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 6, 2024 21:19:26 GMT -6
Pivotal just got a few NSSL models added to it
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Post by amstilost on Mar 6, 2024 21:44:47 GMT -6
All right I really need some help from some people in here. I just can't seem to get a straight answer from the NWS. I mentioned in here we're getting a roof on today, well it didn't happen. Now they're scheduled for tomorrow which two days ago the rain was supposed to start after 12:00 p.m. When they didn't show today I got on the NWS site to see if the forecast was the same. Now the rain wasn't supposed to start till 5:00 p.m. tomorrow.👍👍🤞🤞 This was maybe 6 hours ago. Now I get on there and it's supposed to start raining by 11:00 a.m. tomorrow.👎👎🤬🤬 How does anyone that works outside or has a business that needs accurate info deal with this?
I was told that he will know by 5:00 in the morning if they are coming tomorrow. He's basically going to get up and look out the window and check the forecast. I just thought we had gone way past that with our technology.🤔🤔 Maybe the drought conditions will push it off farther in the day.🤔🤔 Don't mean to sound whiny but I really want to get this done. The shingles have been sitting up on the roof since March 1st.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 6, 2024 23:13:54 GMT -6
Ensembles look downright cold later this month with a deep and persistent trof developing across the E US around the 15th with a west-based -NAO and -EPO. I'm still sticking with my thought of a snowstorm the last part (2nd half) of March. 00z gfs goes crazy with snowstorms starting on the 19th. I go to Miami on the 25th, so you can count on something special then. I expect plenty of snow for baseball season in the Upper Midwest. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 7, 2024 6:06:13 GMT -6
I'm still sticking with my thought of a snowstorm the last part (2nd half) of March. 00z gfs goes crazy with snowstorms starting on the 19th. I go to Miami on the 25th, so you can count on something special then. I expect plenty of snow for baseball season in the Upper Midwest. The GEM ensemble mean had a pretty pronounced wave moving through around the 20th that would probably have cold air connection. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 7, 2024 7:17:22 GMT -6
Lightning all over the place in central Missouri but weakens as it gets closer to metro STL.
Par for the course.
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Post by ndolan387 on Mar 7, 2024 9:35:24 GMT -6
Many on here were writing off winter. What winter lol jk?We've all seen this redeo before this time of year. It's just this winter the warmth was unprecedented in some instances. I kept the faith and belief that we weren't done with snow and cold. Hopefully we cash in now.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 7, 2024 10:23:28 GMT -6
done with it
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Post by sgdragons on Mar 7, 2024 10:59:09 GMT -6
One year ago, 19 percent of the Midwest was considered to be in a drought(D0-D4), right now we are sitting at 77 percent. Pointing out the obvious, but, this is not good.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 7, 2024 23:30:56 GMT -6
This is rather lack luster...
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 8, 2024 9:04:36 GMT -6
Nice steady rain for the last 90 minutes or so
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Post by REB on Mar 8, 2024 9:27:17 GMT -6
Friends,
Things have been really rough this past week. Your continued prayers are appreciated.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 8, 2024 9:38:16 GMT -6
Nice steady rain for the last 90 minutes or so Finally. Up to a quarter inch. Plants are running 20 days ahead from what I read yesterday. Grass is getting really green and the blackberries are getting leaves |
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Post by amstilost on Mar 8, 2024 9:48:50 GMT -6
Friends, Things have been really rough this past week. Your continued prayers are appreciated. 🙏🙏 More prayers for strength and healing for you and your family. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 8, 2024 9:55:45 GMT -6
Friends, Things have been really rough this past week. Your continued prayers are appreciated. Prayers. Reach out if you need anything |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 8, 2024 11:44:46 GMT -6
Friends, Things have been really rough this past week. Your continued prayers are appreciated. You and yours have prayers on the way. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 8, 2024 13:08:04 GMT -6
Friends, Things have been really rough this past week. Your continued prayers are appreciated. Prayers headed your way |
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