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Post by ajd446 on Mar 8, 2024 13:18:51 GMT -6
Prayers for you and your family REB!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 8, 2024 14:34:55 GMT -6
Ended up with a half inch of rain in Arnold
Not bad, but still a long way to go to mitigate any drought conditions
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 8, 2024 16:21:27 GMT -6
Ended up with a half inch of rain in Arnold Not bad, but still a long way to go to mitigate any drought conditions .64 in Belleville. Drought wins again. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 8, 2024 16:53:34 GMT -6
Less than a half inch in Brighton..."not great"
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Post by blueblood on Mar 8, 2024 19:13:19 GMT -6
Friends, Things have been really rough this past week. Your continued prayers are appreciated. Sending prayers you and your family's way REB.....I hope things turn around quickly! |
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Post by REB on Mar 8, 2024 19:37:52 GMT -6
Ended up with a half inch of rain in Arnold Not bad, but still a long way to go to mitigate any drought conditions .64 in Belleville. Drought wins again. .78” over on this side. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 8, 2024 21:27:05 GMT -6
Friends, Things have been really rough this past week. Your continued prayers are appreciated. No problem, Reb. ❤️ |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 8, 2024 22:39:40 GMT -6
All right I really need some help from some people in here. I just can't seem to get a straight answer from the NWS. I mentioned in here we're getting a roof on today, well it didn't happen. Now they're scheduled for tomorrow which two days ago the rain was supposed to start after 12:00 p.m. When they didn't show today I got on the NWS site to see if the forecast was the same. Now the rain wasn't supposed to start till 5:00 p.m. tomorrow.👍👍🤞🤞 This was maybe 6 hours ago. Now I get on there and it's supposed to start raining by 11:00 a.m. tomorrow.👎👎🤬🤬 How does anyone that works outside or has a business that needs accurate info deal with this? I was told that he will know by 5:00 in the morning if they are coming tomorrow. He's basically going to get up and look out the window and check the forecast. I just thought we had gone way past that with our technology.🤔🤔 Maybe the drought conditions will push it off farther in the day.🤔🤔 Don't mean to sound whiny but I really want to get this done. The shingles have been sitting up on the roof since March 1st. As someone who has worked outside, weather forecasts are the least trusted thing in the world. Always plan to work and adjust in the morning |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 9, 2024 7:14:31 GMT -6
Chris please explain the Mesonet.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Mar 9, 2024 8:43:53 GMT -6
The Davis on the roof in North St. Pete is slowly getting over his disappointment with the measly .40 inches. What happened?
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 9, 2024 9:38:02 GMT -6
Chris please explain the Mesonet. The Oklahoma mesonet is system of weather stations. Really helps to provide ground truth conditions in the state during severe weather. Makes it easy to see surface features such as temp and wind direction. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 9, 2024 12:01:15 GMT -6
The Davis on the roof in North St. Pete is slowly getting over his disappointment with the measly .40 inches. What happened? I didn't think we got nearly as much as other had been reporting. |
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Post by let it snow11 on Mar 9, 2024 12:39:43 GMT -6
I have to admit, when I saw the forecast(s) earlier this week, for multiple rounds of beneficial rains for my area from Thursday to today, to produce 1 to 2 inches of rain, I said to myself, "I'll believe it when I see it." That's not to take away from anyone's forecasting abilities, it's just tough to beat a drought. I remember the drought buster in 2012 was the remnants of a hurricane. It takes a strong storm to overcome the pattern. And boy do we need it.
Prayers continue REB. 🙏
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 9, 2024 13:06:31 GMT -6
Will have to keep an eye on mid/late next week for possible severe around here
We just need rain at this point in anyway we can get it
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 9, 2024 14:11:58 GMT -6
Will have to keep an eye on mid/late next week for possible severe around here We just need rain at this point in anyway we can get it Was just looking at that...kind of a low key setup but has some potential. GFS kind of backed off on the cold pattern but the EC still brings down some very cold air by mid-month and beyond. |
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Post by amstilost on Mar 9, 2024 17:40:41 GMT -6
All right I really need some help from some people in here. I just can't seem to get a straight answer from the NWS. I mentioned in here we're getting a roof on today, well it didn't happen. Now they're scheduled for tomorrow which two days ago the rain was supposed to start after 12:00 p.m. When they didn't show today I got on the NWS site to see if the forecast was the same. Now the rain wasn't supposed to start till 5:00 p.m. tomorrow.👍👍🤞🤞 This was maybe 6 hours ago. Now I get on there and it's supposed to start raining by 11:00 a.m. tomorrow.👎👎🤬🤬 How does anyone that works outside or has a business that needs accurate info deal with this? I was told that he will know by 5:00 in the morning if they are coming tomorrow. He's basically going to get up and look out the window and check the forecast. I just thought we had gone way past that with our technology.🤔🤔 Maybe the drought conditions will push it off farther in the day.🤔🤔 Don't mean to sound whiny but I really want to get this done. The shingles have been sitting up on the roof since March 1st. As someone who has worked outside, weather forecasts are the least trusted thing in the world. Always plan to work and adjust in the morning Thanks, I need to remember the weather service is more about protecting people, which they do a great job of, instead of how it might impact a person that's getting his roof done.🤔🤔🤔🤔 Don't they know who I am??? Yeah, probably not.🤣🤣 Sure looks like the 18z run has some cold air out in the not too distant future. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 9, 2024 18:09:35 GMT -6
As someone who has worked outside, weather forecasts are the least trusted thing in the world. Always plan to work and adjust in the morning Thanks, I need to remember the weather service is more about protecting people, which they do a great job of, instead of how it might impact a person that's getting his roof done.🤔🤔🤔🤔 Don't they know who I am??? Yeah, probably not.🤣🤣 Sure looks like the 18z run has some cold air out in the not too distant future. Know how many guys watch the weather and get drunk because it's supposed to rain and then they don't get called off because it's sunny? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 9, 2024 20:55:11 GMT -6
Something something drought feeds drought  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 9, 2024 21:49:01 GMT -6
Looks like a drought buster down south...around these parts, not so much.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 10, 2024 8:36:24 GMT -6
GFS right back on the cold train with the 00z run and very close to a full blown winter storm in about a week. It's likely that anything that tries to develop in the S stream will get squashed by the N stream crashing in, but if that cut off can eject favorably there could be some potential like the GFS shows. The EC has SNSH activity next Sunday in the cyclonic flow which looks more realistic.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 10, 2024 8:38:49 GMT -6
GFS right back on the cold train with the 00z run and very close to a full blown winter storm in about a week. I was just looking at that …. Maybe something to watch |
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 10, 2024 10:31:33 GMT -6
I'm going to start posting the time lagged ensemble cloud cover percentage at 4/08 18Z at Cape Girardeau. The Members column is the number of members that went into the time lagged ensemble. The Avg column is the simple average of GEFS, GEPS, and EPS. GEPS and EPS won't be available until much later. The QWMA column is the 5 day exponential weighted moving average of the Avg column with quadratic weighting. It is the time lagged ensemble value. As of 3/9 the time lagged ensemble shows 52% coverage. That's about the climatological average. Cycle Members GEFS GEPS EPS Avg QWMA
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2024-03-05 21 66 66 66
2024-03-06 42 51 51 54
2024-03-07 63 47 47 50
2024-03-08 84 55 55 52
2024-03-09 105 51 51 52 |
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 10, 2024 12:56:46 GMT -6
Euro has an unstable warm sector and lots of shear Thursday. It's initiating scattered storms early in the afternoon in MO. GFS on the other hand is further east and faster with the front and isn't generating much in the way of convection. We'll have to see how this plays out, but if the Euro is closer to reality then some severe weather may be in the forecast later this week.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 10, 2024 14:23:17 GMT -6
Euro has an unstable warm sector and lots of shear Thursday. It's initiating scattered storms early in the afternoon in MO. GFS on the other hand is further east and faster with the front and isn't generating much in the way of convection. We'll have to see how this plays out, but if the Euro is closer to reality then some severe weather may be in the forecast later this week. Euro is also close to a full blown winter storm after that. Comes together just a hair east of where we need it and turns into an EC bomb |
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 10, 2024 15:41:26 GMT -6
lol
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Post by Jeffmw on Mar 10, 2024 17:14:49 GMT -6
Only 238 days till the end of Daylight Savings.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 10, 2024 18:02:59 GMT -6
I'm going to start posting the time lagged ensemble cloud cover percentage at 4/08 18Z at Cape Girardeau. The Members column is the number of members that went into the time lagged ensemble. The Avg column is the simple average of GEFS, GEPS, and EPS. GEPS and EPS won't be available until much later. The QWMA column is the 5 day exponential weighted moving average of the Avg column with quadratic weighting. It is the time lagged ensemble value. As of 3/9 the time lagged ensemble shows 52% coverage. That's about the climatological average. Cycle Members GEFS GEPS EPS Avg QWMA
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2024-03-05 21 66 66 66
2024-03-06 42 51 51 54
2024-03-07 63 47 47 50
2024-03-08 84 55 55 52
2024-03-09 105 51 51 52I'm not going to pretend to know what all that means, but !AccuNotWx! is showing mostly sunny for the last 3 days. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Mar 11, 2024 1:14:10 GMT -6
Only 238 days till the end of Daylight Savings. Sure would be nice if Congress got together enough to stop the semi-annual nonsense before we have to change back. |
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Post by sgdragons on Mar 11, 2024 8:51:05 GMT -6
Only 238 days till the end of Daylight Savings. Sure would be nice if Congress got together enough to stop the semi-annual nonsense before we have to change back. It's always a good time when you have three kids under the age of ten...... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 11, 2024 9:12:15 GMT -6
Thursday afternoon/evening continues to look interesting for severe weather in the Midwest. The NAM shows a good environment around here Thursday  |
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