Chris's Corner - Welcome to the Warmest Start Ever to Feb!

18z NAM tracks the mid-level features very close to the GYB wheelhouse for the Metro...this one is starting to interest me a bit more.

Still liking the 0-2" call though, lol

I have 1 inch or less Monday day. Up to 1/2 inch Monday night for Waterloo!..meh.
18z gfs has no cold intrusion..models are on the struggle bus..or they know and I just don't like what I see.

10:1 it drops 8" in Marissa.  Obviously that's not counting compaction or melting.

00z GFS looks for the Metro and points just south.

I think time of day and lack of cold air is going to severely hamper this system in the metro and IL side

The NBM shows decent totals across SW MO that trail off to almost nothing up this way

Tracking these systems with no cold is getting really old really fast

Looks like our northward shift have stopped, now trending south again. Steady as she goes like chris says.

Bluebirds are singing this morning...I've never been more ready for spring in my life!

Beautiful sunshine too, as I sip my coffee. I agree 100%.

Someday we need to compile the data.

I have looked at the new observational and forecast data and I just don’t see anything that makes me want to deviate significantly from the placement of the heavier snow band I’ve had forecast for the past several days. The only tweak I’ve made, geographically, was to expand the more significant accumulations a little more to the southeast… taking in Perry and all of Madison County in Missouri. While the placement has changed very little, I now have enough confidence in the location of that heavier band to boost numbers a little bit. I’m going with a 2-5 inch, wet sloppy snow… an increase from the 1-3 inches I was showing with that band earlier. The potential limiting factors have been well documented over the past few days… marginal air and ground temps and time of day. Originally, this looked like a pre-dawn event, but over the past several days the system has slowed and the vast majority of it will fall during the day. It will take some pretty exceptionally heavy snow to get it to accumulate.. which is possible over the eastern Ozarks given the very favorable dynamics that are in place for a strong, narrow band of snowfall…. To say nothing of the potential for upright convection as well! Yes, thunder snow is a very real possibility between Salem MO and Farmington tomorrow. It’s possible some could see more than 5 inches…but given the strong mitigating factors, I think it is wise to not get too aggressive with forecast totals. The other factor that may help with snowfall efficiency is the elevation of the eastern Ozarks. Now, with a 2-5 inch band… I need a buffer zone and the one I have painted on there is likely too generous in some places. The actual drop from 2 inches to nothing is probably going to be over single miles… not tens of miles. But I wanted to leave some wiggle room there…especially up into metro St. Louis. That being said. I think the UHI is likely to curtail and snow accumulation of consequence in metro STL… assuming we are able to get any snow up that way at all. Obviously the metro is on the northern fringe of the precipitation field. As for the Illinois side of the river… the drop in elevation, time of day and model trends to weaken the mesoscale banding in Illinois for a time have me keeping much of southern Illinois in the trace to 2 inch range.

Just blah.

Models may have shifted south a bit, but the theme is the same. Mostly noise now as the output floats on either side of the mean track that has been pretty solid actually for the past couple of days. I'm holding steady for the most part.

The simulated radar products I posted are from the in-house IBM model... but shifted north a few miles to better match the ensemble 850mb low tracks.