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Post by chowderhead54 on Feb 11, 2024 14:20:15 GMT -6
Well the 18z NAM is a complete swing and miss for the entire area lol I hope it's wrong but holy #@$%, went from 6-8 inches on 6z gfs to probably Sunny and 50...by the time we're done on this one!!.This Winter..or lack there of.. Bring on Spring! |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 11, 2024 14:50:01 GMT -6
Well better high and dry areawide as opposed to being just miles from a heavy snowfall and nothing at all. New models pretty much keep everything south of the Missouri and Illinois borders. Basically a Arkansas/Kentucky storm now.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 11, 2024 14:58:45 GMT -6
Nws is way more north with there thoughts and placement of the wwa I am not sure what they are seeing.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 11, 2024 15:04:29 GMT -6
I’m going to go out on a limb and say the WWA for 2-4” of snow will not verify in northern Jeffco
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 11, 2024 15:09:39 GMT -6
Nws is way more north with there thoughts and placement of the wwa I am not sure what they are seeing. Their forecast ... and mine for that matter... are based off careful review the morning model data for the most part. There isn't time to incorporate much of the 18z data into the 4pm forecast. You don't want to make any big decisions/changes based on partial information. Issuance of advisories needs to be coordinated between offices.. and that happens around midday to around 2pm. You have to draw the cutoff line for new data somewhere or you would just keep kicking decisions down the road and never put out a product. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 11, 2024 15:10:52 GMT -6
I’m going to go out on a limb and say the WWA for 2-4” of snow will not verify in northern Jeffco For what it's worth... I would not have included Jeff Co in the advisory. I was thinking most of the county would be a dusting to 1"... maybe 2 in far southern part of the county. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 11, 2024 15:48:07 GMT -6
Well I’m glad I wasn’t looking forward to this one or tracking it for days on end lol. That WWA is going to bust real hard.
Canadian takes the win on this one. It’s had it south/nothing the whole time.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 11, 2024 15:57:28 GMT -6
Lol. IT hasn't hAPPenED yEt.
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Post by sgdragons on Feb 11, 2024 16:17:10 GMT -6
So much for the N shift...NAM barely gets precip into the Metro now. I'm loosing track of how many times SEMO/SOIL has been jackpotted while we're high and dry up this way. Someday we need to compile the data. This year, that has not been the case. |
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Feb 11, 2024 17:11:41 GMT -6
Lol. IT hasn't hAPPenED yEt. Hahahaha |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 11, 2024 18:25:13 GMT -6
Lol to 23/24 season...
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150 
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Feb 11, 2024 18:42:17 GMT -6
Any persistent cold air in sight or are we just moderating our way straight into spring? At this point I'm done - stick a fork in it, this winter sucked.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 11, 2024 18:56:58 GMT -6
If the the 18z trends hold through 00z, this will go down as one of the worst model adjustments this close to an event that I can remember. Are the Russian's messing with our initialization data again?
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 11, 2024 19:14:27 GMT -6
This football game is as bad as our weather models
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 11, 2024 19:27:42 GMT -6
Well of the other models are like the HRRR, it will be a huge model vomit.
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Post by mchafin on Feb 11, 2024 19:40:36 GMT -6
If the the 18z trends hold through 00z, this will go down as one of the worst model adjustments this close to an event that I can remember. Are the Russian's messing with our initialization data again? I don’t recall Lucy pulling back the football this close to an event. Or am I being too kind? |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 11, 2024 19:43:18 GMT -6
I’m going to go out on a limb and say the WWA for 2-4” of snow will not verify in northern Jeffco Yeah. I'm looking at the models here during half-time and it's looking very questionable to say the least. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 11, 2024 19:45:46 GMT -6
I think it’s going to even miss us down here to the south…… snow still hates us
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2024 19:57:53 GMT -6
Gotta love it...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2024 20:00:30 GMT -6
This thing is getting a pretty good nudge SE as it ejects out into TX...it's still digging on satellite.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2024 20:05:03 GMT -6
At two different times the euro had this as a sub 980mb monster for northern Illinois lol.
More recently, it was an STL cement mixer multiple runs.
The back and forth and vacillation were pathetic.
I pointed out this being a more difficult pattern like 5 days ago, but this is beyond even what I thought.
Amazing these are the same models that picked the early January blizzard out at 276 hours.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 11, 2024 20:10:08 GMT -6
At two different times the euro had this as a sub 980mb monster for northern Illinois lol. More recently, it was an STL cement mixer multiple runs. The back and forth and vacillation were pathetic. I pointed out this being a more difficult pattern like 5 days ago, but this is beyond even what I thought. Amazing these are the same models that picked the early January blizzard out at 276 hours. Yeah, looks like there's 3 streams involved with this one...pretty complex flow regime for models to decipher. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2024 21:22:40 GMT -6
This football game is as bad as our weather models Well it got better |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 11, 2024 21:55:11 GMT -6
This football game is as bad as our weather models Well it got better I agree …. Now if only the models would get better lol |
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Post by Jeffmw on Feb 11, 2024 22:19:27 GMT -6
Now that Football is over. Question Do we want the Cardinals to come out hard and fast rack up the wins or build things up.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 11, 2024 22:22:44 GMT -6
This is one of the more challenging recalibrations of a forecast I can remember. I haven't had to do one like this in quite some time...which is good. But like everything in forecasting there is an art to it... but this time it is more challenging than most.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 11, 2024 22:30:00 GMT -6
what a weird last second major shift south. I was hesitant to believe it after one set of model runs but this looks like a huge bust. Good thing this was never meant to be really big but the WWA looks to bust hard.
I never expected much snow this winter but I knew I would jinx any potential when I bought that stupid snow blower.
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bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Feb 11, 2024 22:33:39 GMT -6
If the the 18z trends hold through 00z, this will go down as one of the worst model adjustments this close to an event that I can remember. Are the Russian's messing with our initialization data again? Wait. What does AGAIN mean? 😉 |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 11, 2024 22:43:26 GMT -6
Now that Football is over. Question Do we want the Cardinals to come out hard and fast rack up the wins or build things up. April wins count the same as September… Lots of positive regression with offensive sequencing and bullpen leverage is coming. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 11, 2024 22:47:00 GMT -6
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