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Post by jmg378s on Mar 13, 2024 20:04:14 GMT -6
Again the severe weather today is occurring with dewpoints in the mid-50s. Tomorrow dewpoints should be up around 60.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 13, 2024 21:14:12 GMT -6
Ah love that model spread. FV3-HiRes shows a very active day starting around 2-3PM as well as one of the WRFs while the NAM and other WRF are showing the St. Louis split (not a bad thing in this case) with the action well north and south of the metro. Pretty much comes down to how the morning plays out at this point.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 14, 2024 4:15:48 GMT -6
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued until noon.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 14, 2024 4:52:33 GMT -6
Looks like outflow from this AMs storms could push the effective boundary further S/E than expected...that should become the focus for storms later today behind this first wave as things destabilize. We'll have to see where that sets up.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 14, 2024 6:35:38 GMT -6
sirens. Looks like radar indicated rotation near Jerseyville.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 14, 2024 6:36:30 GMT -6
Three tornado warnings up that way.
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Post by cnagel3 - Festus on Mar 14, 2024 6:37:33 GMT -6
Who’s idea was it to schedule a major radar update at the start of spring severe weather season?
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Post by WeatherGuyRyan on Mar 14, 2024 6:43:08 GMT -6
Sirens sounding in Shrewsbury. My office is evacuating to the stairwells in Chesterfield. All the warnings north of here. Why ?
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 14, 2024 6:50:29 GMT -6
The cell west of California... whoa.
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 14, 2024 6:50:57 GMT -6
It has to be updated sometime. Severe weather or any other kind of significant weather can occur here literally any time of the year. It takes a lot of time and planning to do that stuff. It's a big job. They have to do it when they can. They got it handled just fine with the other radars around. I doubt they care much what us amateur weather dorks think lol.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 14, 2024 6:59:32 GMT -6
I thought this would weaken as it moved in this morning. Lol
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 14, 2024 7:09:25 GMT -6
I think another radar would be useful if installed at KBLV. Would alleviate the strain on radar maintenance for the LSX office and would fix a radar gap between NWS offices in this area.
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Post by Jeffmw on Mar 14, 2024 7:40:30 GMT -6
Well that was a fun wake up call this morning.
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 14, 2024 7:49:20 GMT -6
Looks like the boundary may retreat back to the metro this afternoon.
Could be initiation zone close to the metro
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 14, 2024 7:53:37 GMT -6
Looks like the boundary may retreat back to the metro this afternoon. Could be initiation zone close to the metro The atmosphere should recover rapidly this afternoon behind this line of storms. The HRRR has numerous supercells across the area this afternoon and early evening. |
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Mar 14, 2024 8:30:21 GMT -6
I always wanted to post and share footage, with Drone's and Go Pro's as a hobby it only made sense. Last night presented a cool opportunity to start a channel. Here is the first edited short video of last night's storm as it was exiting in the sunset. I captured a pretty good short time lapse. I wouldn't be upset if you subscribed  youtu.be/967mcd-xSOc?si=tNbNMspfy9itOFiY |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 14, 2024 9:10:14 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 14, 2024 9:21:20 GMT -6
Tough to be away and relax on beach today! But it is more humid here on the Florida panhandle today, a sign of the return flow amping up!
Good luck with the afternoon storms. It looks pretty nasty with the setup of the retreating outflow coming north. Tornado and large hail threat is very real today.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 14, 2024 9:27:21 GMT -6
Tough to be away and relax on beach today! But it is more humid here on the Florida panhandle today, a sign of the return flow amping up! Good luck with the afternoon storms. It looks pretty nasty with the setup of the retreating outflow coming north. Tornado and large hail threat is very real today. Thank you for your insight Chris! Enjoy the sun and sand! |
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Mar 14, 2024 10:24:10 GMT -6
BRTNWXMAN - You OK there? TV said Brighton got hit.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Mar 14, 2024 10:25:45 GMT -6
HRRR keeps showing a large rogue supercell this afternoon out ahead of the main line this evening. Time to be on guard today.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 14, 2024 10:27:56 GMT -6
BRTNWXMAN - You OK there? TV said Brighton got hit. I'm in Godfrey during the day but the reports of damage were a few miles north of home base, which is pretty typical. Seems like most of the severe weather goes north and south...especially hail storms. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 14, 2024 10:49:57 GMT -6
No major changes with the 1630Z day 1 update.
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Mar 14, 2024 11:09:28 GMT -6
Hi everyone,
What is the timing on the storms this afternoon/evening? Trying to organize dismissal for the walkers.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 14, 2024 11:25:42 GMT -6
Already rowing CU towers developing down near SGF
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 14, 2024 11:54:14 GMT -6
Anyone chasing today?
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 14, 2024 11:55:38 GMT -6
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Post by scmhack on Mar 14, 2024 12:03:00 GMT -6
Whatever forms on my way home from work |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 14, 2024 12:04:18 GMT -6
Mesoscale Discussion 0232
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Areas affected...parts of far southeast KS...northwest AR...MO and
western IL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 141758Z - 141930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Storm development appears likely early this afternoon
across a broad warm sector with multiple boundaries. Supercells
capable of all hazards appear likely given sufficient shear and
buoyancy. A WW is likely in the next hour.
DISCUSSION...Early afternoon visible imagery showed a broad cumulus
field becoming progressively more agitated east of a slow-moving
cold front across parts of far southeastern KS, northwest AR and
southwestern MO. Multiple modifying outflow/differential heating
boundaries lie across the warm sector and near the front as observed
by area ME TARS. Strong diurnal heating is ongoing and expected to
continue modifying the air mass across the warm sector and along
these boundaries. With the ongoing heating, surface dewpoints in the
low to mid 60s F are supporting 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE with
minimal CINH remaining. Area model soundings and VAD wind profiles
indicate moderate to strong effective shear of 45-55 kt supportive
of storm organization. While low-level flow is somewhat veered,
supercell wind profiles are in place and subtle forcing for ascent
will favor a more cellular mode, at least initially. Steep lapse
rates, moderate buoyancy and favorable shear will support a risk for
all hazards, especially significant hail, with storms able to
develop.
Hi-res CAM and experimental WOFS guidance solutions show storm
development along the front, across the outflow/differential heating
axis, and within the warm-sector across northwestern AR are all
possible early this afternoon. While an initially discrete storm
mode is expected, additional development southwest, and numerous
storm interactions appear likely. Upscale growth into multiple
clusters with supercell and short bowing segment structures will
support multiple severe hazards. Given the increasing severe risk a
new Tornado Watch is likely within the next hour.
..Lyons/Goss.. 03/14/2024
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 14, 2024 12:07:35 GMT -6
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