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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 13, 2024 12:44:10 GMT -6
Day 2 was just updated to include most of the area in a 5% tornado and 15% hatched hail  Ya with the latest model trends. I was wondering if spc would adjust. Curious to see what models spit out tonight and tomorrow. Storms tonight, could get a bit loud along and north of the warm front close to 7pm. Which looks to set up along and north of hwy 70. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 13, 2024 13:32:36 GMT -6
I'm assuming vil will be impacted by using neighboring domes?
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Post by scmhack on Mar 13, 2024 13:41:34 GMT -6
I'm assuming vil will be impacted by using neighboring domes? Maaaaayybe Paduca |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 13, 2024 13:52:12 GMT -6
I'm assuming vil will be impacted by using neighboring domes? Maaaaayybe Paduca Beam heights for my house according to radarscope: Lsx 600 ft Pad 10.5k ft Ilx 12.9k ft |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 13, 2024 14:03:06 GMT -6
Severe watch possible soon  |
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Post by amstilost on Mar 13, 2024 14:33:38 GMT -6
Well I'm glad I read the last couple of texts cuz I was just about to jump on here going Hallelujah, the tables have turned, one lone cell and it's heavily raining over my place with thunder. Then I see the Meso scale discussion about storms with hail. Oh yeah, new roof is two days old.😳😳
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Post by amstilost on Mar 13, 2024 14:37:24 GMT -6
And as soon as I post that we have little hailstones falling out of the sky. I take back the Hallelujah.🤪🤪🤪🤪
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Post by scmhack on Mar 13, 2024 14:48:55 GMT -6
And as soon as I post that we have little hailstones falling out of the sky. I take back the Hallelujah.🤪🤪🤪🤪 And this is why we dont taunt the weather gods |
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Post by scmhack on Mar 13, 2024 14:51:36 GMT -6
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Mar 13, 2024 14:52:11 GMT -6
Watch issued.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Mar 13, 2024 14:56:53 GMT -6
And as soon as I post that we have little hailstones falling out of the sky. I take back the Hallelujah.🤪🤪🤪🤪 Shingles are still pliable probably won't crack. I went through the same situation last summer |
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Post by amstilost on Mar 13, 2024 15:19:56 GMT -6
And as soon as I post that we have little hailstones falling out of the sky. I take back the Hallelujah.🤪🤪🤪🤪 And this is why we dont taunt the weather gods 😁😁 NEVER |
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Post by amstilost on Mar 13, 2024 15:22:43 GMT -6
And as soon as I post that we have little hailstones falling out of the sky. I take back the Hallelujah.🤪🤪🤪🤪 Shingles are still pliable probably won't crack. I went through the same situation last summer 👍👍 yeah, aside from the threat to life and limb obviously, I just don't like severe storms anymore because of the damages they cause. I prefer nice thunder showers any more.😊 These shingles came with a 50 warranty/life span. Closing in on the magical number 65 I don't think I'll have to worry about them wearing out anyway.🤔🤔 I could make 115 a goal.🤪🤪 |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 13, 2024 16:18:28 GMT -6
That cell just south of Cedar Hill is looking a little suspicious
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 13, 2024 16:34:53 GMT -6
Some of the CAMs are awfully feisty around here tomorrow afternoon. The RRFS has discrete supercells erupting across the area. Its not alone in showing that solution  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 13, 2024 16:40:15 GMT -6
Yeah, tomorrow looks like a potentially volatile day...good setup for discrete supercells with the weak height falls and the boundary situated more WSW to ENE
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 13, 2024 16:54:37 GMT -6
Yeah, tomorrow looks like a potentially volatile day...good setup for discrete supercells with the weak height falls and the boundary situated more WSW to ENE Smells like our first Enhanced, possibly low end Moderate Risk tomorrow. Not saying that's what they'll go with, but depending on how fast we break the cap and how much sun we get, there's a shot. |
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Post by chowderhead54 on Mar 13, 2024 18:02:37 GMT -6
Yeah, tomorrow looks like a potentially volatile day...good setup for discrete supercells with the weak height falls and the boundary situated more WSW to ENE |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 13, 2024 18:24:16 GMT -6
We had some hail just south east of Marissa …. Marble sized … I have seen pictures out of Ruma of the ground covered in hail …. Looks like snow
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 13, 2024 18:39:11 GMT -6
Smithton, IL getting nailed now. looks like it could be quarters to golfballs there based on the VIR and hail core.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 13, 2024 18:41:11 GMT -6
Drive down IL-159 would be something right now south of Belleville.
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Mar 13, 2024 18:44:06 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 13, 2024 18:55:27 GMT -6
She's a beaut! I think I even saw a 'Beaver Tail' in that shot. Nice view of a Supercell! |
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 13, 2024 18:56:34 GMT -6
Very cool
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 13, 2024 19:05:08 GMT -6
Well it looks like things are starting to slow/shutdown locally, but action has quickly turned back to KC and northeastern Kansas for round two where there's some big storms gathering steam there. Some models bring it down to our area in the early morning, but some miss entirely. If the former is the case we could get off somewhat easier tomorrow evening/night. If not, then we could be in some trouble. I think anywhere along and south of I-70 is in the line of fire tomorrow evening/night. North of there might get off easy comparatively.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 13, 2024 19:12:07 GMT -6
That Kansas tornadic storm had an incredible radar presentation  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 13, 2024 19:21:31 GMT -6
That Kansas tornadic storm had an incredible radar presentation Wow! |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 13, 2024 19:33:53 GMT -6
I'd say this severe weather season could be the most active in our area in the past several years. Rest of the spring pattern just has the look. Tough west, deep gulf flow into the Mississippi River Valley, and strong ridging along the southeast. Not all the time of course, but 3-4 major episodes seem likely. We're in one now, and again in end of March/first week of April, followed by last 10 days of April into the first 2 weeks of May, and again in early June. Summer could see us in the firing zone of MCS clusters as well but time will tell.
The period in late April/May is the most concerning overall due to it's length and ideal time of year.
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Post by goutkvols KCMO on Mar 13, 2024 19:40:31 GMT -6
Severe Thunderstorm warning for 3.5 inch hail in the KC metro area
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 13, 2024 19:52:09 GMT -6
Severe Thunderstorm warning for 3.5 inch hail in the KC metro area guess we're going straight to softballs then... Interesting. The system definitely has been outperforming even some of my 'extreme' predictions as far as hail size and it's still not even the 'main' event. |
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