Chris's Corner - Happy Easter!

You are in my and all of us on this board thoughts and prayers MoSue. I'm so sorry to hear this.

I have been on here a long time and I truly have become a weather lover no matter the season and learned a lot! I’ll try and keep you informed as long as I can! Love you!

Mosue, I am sorry you have a difficult diagnosis. I know people think highly of you on this board. Prayers to you and your family.

MOSUE,I am so very very sorry to hear this! Sending Hugs,and prayers your way.

4.8 magnitude earthquake centered in Whitehouse Station, NJ. Strongest earthquake reported in New Jersey since 1884

GFS has a 4km thick cirrus layer. ECMWF has a 1km thick cirrus layer. CMC and UKMET are completely clear. GFS obviously would be bit problematic though not necessarily catastrophic, ECMWF is somewhat favorable, and CMC/UKMET are highly favorable.

A partly cloudy sky. You definitely wanna go south where it's 100 %

Imagine watching a movie from the parking lot, all you can hear is the bass rumble through the wall.

Totality is one of the wonders of the world. More spectacular and awe inspiring than an ef5 tornado. People spend 10s of thousands of dollars and travel thousands of miles just to get the chance to experience it for a few minutes. A partial is not even close to being in the same ballpark. Definitely get there if you can. If not, hopefully we are all still around in 2045.

You must get into the path of totality. It's like the difference between driving a Ford and a Porsche.

So basically about the same, right?

Yesterday's model runs did not trend in the right direction. Both the GFS and ECMWF are now what I'd call problematic. The UKMET shifted to only somewhat favorable. That leaves only the CMC with highly favorable conditions. The issue is the subtropical jet moistening the upper atmosphere so cirrostratus clouds are probably going to sweep over a large portion of the CONUS. Different models show varying degrees of thickness ranging up to 4 km. Obviously the thicker they are the less of the Sun you'll see. The 7Z run of the NBM has 540 W/m2 of uneclipsed equivalent insolation at 1 pm (the real insolation will be much lower due to the eclipse). This compares to clear sky conditions of about 900 W/m2. You can do the math...540 / 900 = 60% or 40% of the light is blocked. The good news is that this is only problematic and not catastrophic like would be the case with stratus or altostratus. Even a poorly placed cumulus clouds would be catastrophic for viewing. So if we're going to get clouds then cirrostratus (or even better cirrus) is what you want. Even at 40% blockage you still should get a good view of the eclipse. It'll just look fuzzy. I tried researching at what point the corona gets washed out through cirrostratus. I was not able to find a good answer. Let's just hope the cirrostratus stays on the thinner side just in case it's a problem.

I was just looking at that radar loop that's posted on the NWS site regarding April 1st storm. You can see the big complex/QLCS, as the issues with the radar outages were ongoing, as it was coming into Jefferson County. You can see that line split and that was right over my house so very thankful for that. Hopefully, timing wise, outages like that don't ever occur again.

Yeah, you could be right. Trying to research this has proven to be challenging. I'm getting mixed information. Some say cirrostratus is no bid deal. Some say it could fuzz things out too much to see Bailey's Beads which I don't personally care about, but some do. I think the corona will still be visible even through a reasonably thick layer of cirrostratus which IMHO is the neatest part of the experience. Your concern about CU is well taken too. Right now I'm optimistic. The dewpoint depressions in the lower part of the atmosphere in combination with the reduction in solar insolation should help keep those suppressed. But the weak front and closeness of the vorticity advection at 500mb certainly keeps it from being a lock.