BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202 
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Post by BDS on Apr 6, 2024 11:21:04 GMT -6
I honestly think a thin veil of cirrostratus is favorable for viewing...thin being the key word. The wrench in the gears is a weak front that could set off some CU locally. Yeah, you could be right. Trying to research this has proven to be challenging. I'm getting mixed information. Some say cirrostratus is no bid deal. Some say it could fuzz things out too much to see Bailey's Beads which I don't personally care about, but some do. I think the corona will still be visible even through a reasonably thick layer of cirrostratus which IMHO is the neatest part of the experience. Your concern about CU is well taken too. Right now I'm optimistic. The dewpoint depressions in the lower part of the atmosphere in combination with the reduction in solar insolation should help keep those suppressed. But the weak front and closeness of the vorticity advection at 500mb certainly keeps it from being a lock. In the 2017 eclipse, Columbia MO where I watched it from was locked in with cirrostratus the whole eclipse time, and it did not damper the experience at all. The only concern then was the cumulus clouds that tried developing as totality approached, but they seemingly were knocked down considerably by the lack of extra daytime heating from the eclipse. I’m not going to panic at all if cirrus or cirrostratus develop. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 6, 2024 12:57:11 GMT -6
Yeah, you could be right. Trying to research this has proven to be challenging. I'm getting mixed information. Some say cirrostratus is no bid deal. Some say it could fuzz things out too much to see Bailey's Beads which I don't personally care about, but some do. I think the corona will still be visible even through a reasonably thick layer of cirrostratus which IMHO is the neatest part of the experience. Your concern about CU is well taken too. Right now I'm optimistic. The dewpoint depressions in the lower part of the atmosphere in combination with the reduction in solar insolation should help keep those suppressed. But the weak front and closeness of the vorticity advection at 500mb certainly keeps it from being a lock. In the 2017 eclipse, Columbia MO where I watched it from was locked in with cirrostratus the whole eclipse time, and it did not damper the experience at all. The only concern then was the cumulus clouds that tried developing as totality approached, but they seemingly were knocked down considerably by the lack of extra daytime heating from the eclipse. I’m not going to panic at all if cirrus or cirrostratus develop. You could actually watch on satellite the cumulus stop growing and start to dissipate in the hour or so leading up to totality. I’m sure someone has a video out there on YouTube. |
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 6, 2024 13:01:47 GMT -6
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 6, 2024 14:18:12 GMT -6
It appears this time the Arch effect is working in our favor. There was another map I saw from the NWS that showed an even smaller hole that this right over the mid-Mississippi River valley.  |
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Post by yypc on Apr 6, 2024 14:22:27 GMT -6
It appears this time the Arch effect is working in our favor. There was another map I saw from the NWS that showed an even smaller hole that this right over the mid-Mississippi River valley. That’s the map from yesterday. Check today’s map, they filled in the gap with clouds lol. |
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 6, 2024 14:36:19 GMT -6
Yeah, you could be right. Trying to research this has proven to be challenging. I'm getting mixed information. Some say cirrostratus is no bid deal. Some say it could fuzz things out too much to see Bailey's Beads which I don't personally care about, but some do. I think the corona will still be visible even through a reasonably thick layer of cirrostratus which IMHO is the neatest part of the experience. Your concern about CU is well taken too. Right now I'm optimistic. The dewpoint depressions in the lower part of the atmosphere in combination with the reduction in solar insolation should help keep those suppressed. But the weak front and closeness of the vorticity advection at 500mb certainly keeps it from being a lock. In the 2017 eclipse, Columbia MO where I watched it from was locked in with cirrostratus the whole eclipse time, and it did not damper the experience at all. The only concern then was the cumulus clouds that tried developing as totality approached, but they seemingly were knocked down considerably by the lack of extra daytime heating from the eclipse. I’m not going to panic at all if cirrus or cirrostratus develop. This is good eye witness information. I was trying to research how thick the cirrostratus layer would have to be to dampen the experience and it was really hard getting a definitive answer. |
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 6, 2024 14:39:47 GMT -6
The latest NBM looks really good. There is a 20 in the SKY column which means 20% coverage of which I suspect all of that would be cirrus or cirrostratus. There is a 73 in the SOL column which means 730 W/m2.
NBS TEXT BULLETIN - STATION KCGI
#
KCGI NBM V4.1 NBS GUIDANCE 4/06/2024 1300 UTC
DT /APR 6/APR 7 /APR 8 /APR 9
UTC 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12
FHR 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 53 56 59 62 65 68 71
TXN 45 73 47 79 57
XND 2 2 3 1 1
TMP 57 62 58 51 48 48 48 59 65 70 67 61 56 52 50 64 75 78 71 64 63 62 60
TSD 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2
DPT 35 36 37 36 37 36 37 45 53 57 57 54 50 47 46 52 50 50 52 54 57 58 58
DSD 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2
SKY 7 1 2 5 14 37 27 57 63 64 22 14 6 40 60 31 20 21 27 60 72 89 89
SSD 19 1 2 7 30 38 30 26 19 39 20 22 21 31 36 22 23 21 21 28 18 8 11
WDR 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 17 18 19 20 19 21 20 18 19 19 19 17 17 18 19 18
WSP 7 8 8 9 10 13 14 16 15 17 12 9 5 5 4 7 9 10 9 9 10 9 9
WSD 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 2
GST 10 11 11 13 15 19 20 24 23 25 18 13 8 8 7 11 14 15 12 14 15 14 14
GSD 2 2 2 3 3 3 5 3 4 3 5 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 2 3 3
P06 0 0 5 24 44 28 1 0 3 15 63
P12 5 59 25 3 66
Q06 0 0 0 0 13 4 0 0 0 0 38
Q12 0 13 4 0 38
DUR 1 7 1 0 6
T03 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 4 7 13 18 10 3 0 0 0 0 2 5 7 12 15 13
T06 1 1 2 11 30 16 1 1 7 15 20
T12 3 31 16 7 30
PZR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PSN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PPL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PRA 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 34 86 34 37 6 22 14 18 0 0 2 7 36 40 78 66
S06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
I06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CIG -88-88-88-88-88-88-88 45 22 13-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88-88120 49 6 4
IFC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 16 7 2 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 7 29 43
LCB 270-88-88-88140 90 90 32 21 13 60 20-88-88 70150260270240110 41 4 4
VIS 100100100100100100100100100 70100100100100100100100100100100100100100
IFV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 2 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 6
MHT 35 33 5 4 5 5 5 18 17 27 7 4 4 4 4 8 55 57 4 4 5 7 7
TWD 12 13 11 13 13 13 14 18 18 21 20 22 24 23 21 19 20 20 18 17 18 19 18
TWS 7 8 9 12 15 16 16 24 18 21 13 10 9 7 7 9 15 16 12 13 13 15 12
HID 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 4
SOL 84 67 13 0 0 0 1 46 10 30 7 1 0 0 2 30 73 77 55 1 1 0 0
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 6, 2024 14:45:34 GMT -6
GFS and ECMWF soundings look better relative to yesterday's runs. I'm only seeing maybe a 1.5 km layer of cirrostratus. And the forecasted radiation blockage from the GEFS and SREF is only 12% and 5% respectively according to Pivotal Weather. This is giving more confidence that favorable viewing conditions will prevail.   |
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Post by yypc on Apr 6, 2024 18:59:32 GMT -6
How bad do you all think the roads will be Monday? With missouri/illinois being probably the best cloud cover spot outside of vermont/maine, I hope it isnt too bad.
Update on some popular spots:
-Jackson Falls parking lot full
-Garden of the Gods recreation area parking lot full
-Cedar Lake boat ramp parking lot full
-Indian Point, backpackers parking lot, Garden of the Gods, full
-Dutchman Spillway parking lot full
last updated: 4/6/2024 12:55 pm CST
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Post by yypc on Apr 6, 2024 19:24:10 GMT -6
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 6, 2024 19:52:06 GMT -6
Lessons learned from 2017...people trickle into the path of totality slowly. They leave all at once. I can vouch for the fact that I-55 was bumper to bumper from at least Perryville where I was to St. Louis. I'm sure the jam went further south than that though. If our area truly is going to be mostly sunny then it could be worse than 2017. Plan accordingly. what will make it worse this year is that the totality will stay south of St. Louis. So, instead of people in a large urban area watching it from their backyard, they will migrate southward to small towns like Poplar Bluff and Cape Girardeau, where there's only one way in or one way out of town. It will be a rough commute Monday evening as I-55 empties onto I270/I255 northbound. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 6, 2024 20:08:52 GMT -6
My primary target is Cape Girardeau's riverfront. The Cape County Park at 61 and 55 is closed to the public all day for the eclipse, and with some parks the city is going to set up barricades for traffic control. I'm going to try to avoid those places and try to navigate to the riverfront. There are some microbrewerys in town there after some pilot house bbq. But if we can't make it into town, Jackson has Wibs bbq and then there's a winery in northern Cape County near Perryville that we could bail on. We plan to stay for dinner if we can get a table. I'm sure we will be paying a premium with eclipse prices. I'm told to quadruple the time it takes to get home, so obviously I took the next day off. I refuse to pay $500 hotel prices in a town that clearly is not known for its tourism.
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 6, 2024 20:18:43 GMT -6
0Z HRRR is forecasting the largest weather effects to be in Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois. The temperature drop in this region is 7 F and wind speeds get cut almost in half with directions changing from SSE to more S.
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Post by yypc on Apr 7, 2024 6:37:25 GMT -6
1 day out and models are still all over the place. Just gotta go with your spot and hope for the best.
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 7, 2024 7:39:36 GMT -6
Looking at modeling this morning this is my assessment of what they are showing. Only the RAP is unfavorable. It does concern me that the GFS and ECMWF are what I call problematic. They both have a 1.5 km thick layer of saturation in the upper troposphere. I think at the very least this could prevent the stars from popping out. At the worst it might obscure the corona or even the disk itself. Fortunately the CAMs are mostly favorable so hopefully that is indication that the GFS and ECMWF are too aggressive with the cirrus.
NBM: favorable
GFS: problematic
ECMWF: problematic
GDPS: ideal
ICON: favorable
UKMET: favorable
NAM: favorable
RAP: unfavorable
RDPS: favorable
NAM3k: favorable
WRF-ARW: ideal
WRF-NSSL: favorable
HRW-FV3: favorable
RRFS: favorable
SREF: favorable
HRRR: favorable problematic (Edit: 12Z cycle shows thicker cirrus)
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 7, 2024 7:53:52 GMT -6
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Post by dgl1004-Moberly, MO on Apr 7, 2024 7:57:31 GMT -6
Yeah, you could be right. Trying to research this has proven to be challenging. I'm getting mixed information. Some say cirrostratus is no bid deal. Some say it could fuzz things out too much to see Bailey's Beads which I don't personally care about, but some do. I think the corona will still be visible even through a reasonably thick layer of cirrostratus which IMHO is the neatest part of the experience. Your concern about CU is well taken too. Right now I'm optimistic. The dewpoint depressions in the lower part of the atmosphere in combination with the reduction in solar insolation should help keep those suppressed. But the weak front and closeness of the vorticity advection at 500mb certainly keeps it from being a lock. In the 2017 eclipse, Columbia MO where I watched it from was locked in with cirrostratus the whole eclipse time, and it did not damper the experience at all. The only concern then was the cumulus clouds that tried developing as totality approached, but they seemingly were knocked down considerably by the lack of extra daytime heating from the eclipse. I’m not going to panic at all if cirrus or cirrostratus develop. And 30 miles north in Moberly we had rain and clouds. It was still cool to see it get dark in the middle of the afternoon but still disappointing. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 7, 2024 8:51:57 GMT -6
1 day out and models are still all over the place. Just gotta go with your spot and hope for the best. Just like the models do for snowstorm. At least they're consistent with their inconsistency. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 7, 2024 9:09:47 GMT -6
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Post by yypc on Apr 7, 2024 9:54:25 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 7, 2024 10:23:39 GMT -6
Latest HREF cloud forecast for tomorrow. That's a lot of high and even some mid level clouds.  |
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Post by yypc on Apr 7, 2024 11:11:09 GMT -6
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 7, 2024 12:10:33 GMT -6
Good results from the 12Z globals. GDPS, ICON, UKMET, and ECMWF are all favorable with the GDPS being ideal. GFS is the outlier now with problematic conditions. However, even with the GFS's thicker cirrus I think we'd still be able to see the disk and at least the inner corona. The outer corona and stars may be iffy views if the GFS is right.
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Post by dschreib on Apr 7, 2024 12:33:24 GMT -6
Just had a couple rounds of pea sized hail in Marissa a little while ago. Interrupted my nap…twice.
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Post by Ofallon mo weather fan on Apr 7, 2024 13:14:51 GMT -6
Short round of pea size hail in north Ofallon Mo.
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Post by amstilost on Apr 7, 2024 13:44:47 GMT -6
Looks like I got some cells popping just to my West but looks to me like they're going to go just a tick to the north of me. I can hear thunder out of them but seems like I can't buy a raindrop here in 7 miles west of DeSoto.🤞🤞🤞🤞
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snowcat
Junior Forecaster
Bowling Green, MO
Posts: 280 
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Post by snowcat on Apr 7, 2024 13:52:48 GMT -6
Hi, everyone…hubby and I are still undecided about where to travel to have the best chance to view totality tomorrow. Are any of you planning to meet up? We’re in Bowling Green, MO…willing to go as far as Vincennes, IN. Excited, as 2017 was such a surreal experience! That includes the nightmare traffic afterwards haha.
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Post by amstilost on Apr 7, 2024 14:09:38 GMT -6
Few drops of rain falling at the house with the Sun out. Looking at radar looks like the same split that happened on the First with the severe weather although the wind is blowing the few raindrops in on the windows I just cleaned on the west side of the house.😬🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪
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Post by John G -west belleville on Apr 7, 2024 14:33:04 GMT -6
Hi, everyone…hubby and I are still undecided about where to travel to have the best chance to view totality tomorrow. Are any of you planning to meet up? We’re in Bowling Green, MO…willing to go as far as Vincennes, IN. Excited, as 2017 was such a surreal experience! That includes the nightmare traffic afterwards haha. We are planning on heading down rt 13 towards pinckneyville and getting about 3 minutes of totality. Hopefully avoid the traffic |
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Post by amstilost on Apr 7, 2024 14:35:17 GMT -6
Really is incredible with the radar how the same split occurred as it did on 4/1 with the heavier cells to my North and my South and leaving me pretty much just sprinkled on. 🤔🤔 almost has to be something geographic that does whatever it does just before Western Jefferson County. I know several on here have mentioned the Ozark Plateau but I mean this happens just west of me when this phenomenon seems to occur.
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