|
|
Post by perryville on May 7, 2024 8:04:32 GMT -6
This definitely caught my attention from the NWS
The top 2 CIPS analogs for Wednesday`s event are two of our more
significant May events in the past 20 years: May 8,
2009
derecho (https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=derecho)
(80-
100 mph winds) and May 6, 2003
tornado (https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=tornado)
outbreak that resulted in 21
tornadoes in our
cwa (https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=cwa)
.
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on May 7, 2024 8:05:21 GMT -6
I was just driving down highway H and as I came around the corner and the sun hit just right I noticed vapor and Mist evaporating off the road and heading up into the atmosphere. Will all of this extra moisture that is completely around our area of the country right now have any ability to add extra fuel into the storms tomorrow? All around my area everything is completely saturated and the ground cannot hold anymore so I just assume more moisture, or transpiration I believe it is, will be rising into the atmosphere during the day today and tomorrow. Any thoughts??
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on May 7, 2024 8:18:38 GMT -6
HRRR and now Hi-res showing a few cells popping up tonight now.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on May 7, 2024 8:51:52 GMT -6
There is an unusually large spread in the models regarding how tomorrow will play out. This includes pretty much any forecastable parameter you can think of.
|
|
|
|
Post by John G -west belleville on May 7, 2024 9:15:23 GMT -6
HRRR and now Hi-res showing a few cells popping up tonight now. Not surprising. It's a little warm and humid this morning |
|
|
|
Post by REB on May 7, 2024 9:20:24 GMT -6
Have to drive to Ballwin in the am and return to Belleville around 2 pm. I sure hope I can get home before things get bad. Thoughts?
|
|
twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
|
Post by twocat on May 7, 2024 9:24:17 GMT -6
Have to drive to Ballwin in the am and return to Belleville around 2 pm. I sure hope I can get home before things get bad. Thoughts? I just cancelled an appointment for early tomorrow afternoon in O'Fallon, MO. We were at Westport on April 28, 2012. Had a Jeep basically destroyed by hail. No thank you. |
|
|
|
Post by REB on May 7, 2024 9:56:12 GMT -6
Have to drive to Ballwin in the am and return to Belleville around 2 pm. I sure hope I can get home before things get bad. Thoughts? I just cancelled an appointment for early tomorrow afternoon in O'Fallon, MO. We were at Westport on April 28, 2012. Had a Jeep basically destroyed by hail. No thank you. My concern. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on May 7, 2024 9:57:40 GMT -6
The core of the damage in Barnsdall last night looks like EF-4 to me. I'm no surveyor but it is eerily similar to the 2017 Perryville damage with some homes completely leveled and some tree debarking, along with some large trees snapped low.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on May 7, 2024 11:04:30 GMT -6
Preliminary report of an EF-1 in Sullivan this morning and EF-0 near Defiance
Still waiting on official word from the NWS
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 7, 2024 11:28:58 GMT -6
There is an unusually large spread in the models regarding how tomorrow will play out. This includes pretty much any forecastable parameter you can think of. Regardless of finer details/noise, tomorrow's setup checks off a lot of boxes... |
|
|
|
Post by Kathy Walker - Fredericktown on May 7, 2024 11:49:28 GMT -6
Have to drive to Ballwin in the am and return to Belleville around 2 pm. I sure hope I can get home before things get bad. Thoughts? I just cancelled an appointment for early tomorrow afternoon in O'Fallon, MO. We were at Westport on April 28, 2012. Had a Jeep basically destroyed by hail. No thank you. As a long time member here, I've never been one to post here or Facebook asking others what about tomorrow at this or that time will the storms push thru. Well, here I am. My 86 y.o. Mom has an eye apptmt at Barnes Location on Butler Hill Road tomorrow. I'm coming from Fredericktown and the apptmt is at 10:15am for 90 minutes.  I'm terrible driving in storms as I'm not used to it. I feel I already know the answer but I'm wondering if the storms will hold off or slow down until noon and then I can get another 90 minutes back down to home? - Kathy |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 7, 2024 12:23:14 GMT -6
This definitely caught my attention from the NWS The top 2 CIPS analogs for Wednesday`s event are two of our more significant May events in the past 20 years: May 8, 2009 derecho (https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=derecho) (80- 100 mph winds) and May 6, 2003 tornado (https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=tornado) outbreak that resulted in 21 tornadoes in our cwa (https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=cwa) . Interesting to note the dates on those two events given today's date is May 7. |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on May 7, 2024 12:33:30 GMT -6
The core of the damage in Bardsville last night looks like EF-4 to me. I'm no surveyor but it is eerily similar to the 2017 Perryville damage with some homes completely leveled and some tree debarking, along with some large trees snapped low. I assume you mean Barnsdall OK? Yes the damage looks extreme. We've seen several instances over the years where homes completely swept are only assigned an EF3 rating due to poor construction (e.g. no/improper anchoring) so you never know until the surveyors assess not only the damage, but the construction too. |
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on May 7, 2024 12:33:56 GMT -6
Storms firing
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on May 7, 2024 14:23:27 GMT -6
Mean storms rolling off the southern tip of Lake Michigan. They may end up producing more than in the southern plains yesterday.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on May 7, 2024 15:10:51 GMT -6
The core of the damage in Bardsville last night looks like EF-4 to me. I'm no surveyor but it is eerily similar to the 2017 Perryville damage with some homes completely leveled and some tree debarking, along with some large trees snapped low. I assume you mean Barnsdall OK? Yes the damage looks extreme. We've seen several instances over the years where homes completely swept are only assigned an EF3 rating due to poor construction (e.g. no/improper anchoring) so you never know until the surveyors assess not only the damage, but the construction too. Yes sorry, thanks for pointing it out. Corrected on original post. |
|
|
|
Post by weatherman222 on May 7, 2024 15:35:54 GMT -6
Really been getting into using Pivotal during severe weather. Very fascinating solutions tomorrow across the area. HRRR shows some troubling solutions with PDS Tor tagged soundings. Other models aren't as exciting of course. Really has everyone's attention being the anniversary of the May 8th 2009 derecho
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on May 7, 2024 15:52:43 GMT -6
A big question for tomorrow is not only how far but how fast the warm front lifts north when storms arrive. For those of us along the I-70 corridor it remains to be seen where that ends up, but for our southerners it appears very likely a high STP environment will be in place by early afternoon. And I would not be surprised to see a moderate risk upgrade at some point especially down there extending into southern IL and KY.
|
|
|
|
Post by dgl1004-Moberly, MO on May 7, 2024 15:53:06 GMT -6
Really been getting into using Pivotal during severe weather. Very fascinating solutions tomorrow across the area. HRRR shows some troubling solutions with PDS Tor tagged soundings. Other models aren't as exciting of course. Really has everyone's attention being the anniversary of the May 8th 2009 derecho I’ve been on Pivotal a lot lately but I am still learning to read a lot of the models. |
|
|
|
Post by dgl1004-Moberly, MO on May 7, 2024 15:53:54 GMT -6
Mean storms rolling off the southern tip of Lake Michigan. They may end up producing more than in the southern plains yesterday. A couple of PDS tornado warnings just issued. |
|
|
|
Post by weatherman222 on May 7, 2024 15:57:38 GMT -6
Really been getting into using Pivotal during severe weather. Very fascinating solutions tomorrow across the area. HRRR shows some troubling solutions with PDS Tor tagged soundings. Other models aren't as exciting of course. Really has everyone's attention being the anniversary of the May 8th 2009 derecho I’ve been on Pivotal a lot lately but I am still learning to read a lot of the models. Same here! There is a lot to take in. Hanging around here helped me to pick up a lot in analyzing soundings and model solutions |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on May 7, 2024 15:58:33 GMT -6
Mean storms rolling off the southern tip of Lake Michigan. They may end up producing more than in the southern plains yesterday. A couple of PDS tornado warnings just issued. Yup. Bad deal…you could just tell by the shape of the cells early on what they were going to do. |
|
|
|
Post by let it snow11 on May 7, 2024 16:04:44 GMT -6
I don't know that I had ever seen a daytime sky so black as I did during the May 8th, 2009 derecho.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 7, 2024 16:24:19 GMT -6
I don't know that I had ever seen a daytime sky so black as I did during the May 8th, 2009 derecho. That's how the 2006 derecho was...a big, gnarly boiling black mass. |
|
|
|
Post by let it snow11 on May 7, 2024 16:33:25 GMT -6
I don't know that I had ever seen a daytime sky so black as I did during the May 8th, 2009 derecho. That's how the 2006 derecho was...a big, gnarly boiling black mass. I remember that one as well. Was playing catch in the yard with my boys. The sky to the north got black and we actually lost power BEFORE the storm hit us. It was weird. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on May 7, 2024 16:44:29 GMT -6
Mean storms rolling off the southern tip of Lake Michigan. They may end up producing more than in the southern plains yesterday. A couple of PDS tornado warnings just issued. Tornado Emergency was issued a short time ago as well. First one ever in Michigan |
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 7, 2024 16:45:17 GMT -6
There is a mass casualty in MI... from that tornado. Hit a warehouse
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on May 7, 2024 17:08:22 GMT -6
That's how the 2006 derecho was...a big, gnarly boiling black mass. I remember that one as well. Was playing catch in the yard with my boys. The sky to the north got black and we actually lost power BEFORE the storm hit us. It was weird. I’ll never forget that darkness. Or the baseball hail we had (2009). |
|
ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
|
Post by ilnois on May 7, 2024 17:12:29 GMT -6
Is anyone able to view this morning's radar and tell me if there is any evidence of a spin-up at 38.392406, -90.041064?
There was a roof blown off a shed and deposited to the north of its location.
|
|
