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Post by ajd446 on May 8, 2024 7:05:57 GMT -6
I hope this thing misses the Metro to the south.
I think Rolla to Carbondale will be the bullseye. As Chris said the air is dry in the metro and the hrrr has it diving south of us.
Also spc trimmed the enhanced south a bit
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Post by John G -west belleville on May 8, 2024 7:11:15 GMT -6
I hope this thing misses the Metro to the south. I think Rolla to Carbondale will be the bullseye. As Chris said the air is dry in the metro and the hrrr has it diving south of us. Also spc trimmed the enhanced south a bit Storms are north of where here has them currently. |
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Post by Snowman99 on May 8, 2024 7:12:41 GMT -6
spc brought mod risk a bit north, to about Sullivan
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Post by bdgwx on May 8, 2024 7:13:38 GMT -6
Yeah, the HRRR initializes the MCS in the right area, but then the very next hour it forgets about it and just starts generating random cells really far south. Like...WTF?
The SPC extended the moderate risk a little further north. I don't think that's much of a surprise given that the MCS is on the northern side of expectations.
They are thinking EF2+ tornadoes are possible in the wake of that MCS's outflow boundary in southern MO.
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Post by cardsnweather on May 8, 2024 7:32:04 GMT -6
HRRR looks like it’s out to lunch right now It is way to far south with convection to our west compared to real world obs Compared to RAP it's not even close |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 8, 2024 7:34:42 GMT -6
12z analysis has the warm front down near the MO/AR border...it's got a long way to go but there are clear skies so it should retreat northward some. Definitely looks like the S half is favored for the greatest threat today, but the whole area is under the gun.
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Post by scmhack on May 8, 2024 7:37:27 GMT -6
I'm refusing to let any guard down. Every time with this system it has gone further north than the risk listed.
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Post by perryville on May 8, 2024 7:46:46 GMT -6
Fellow weather friend reports dewpoint of 70.2 and rising steadily in Jackson, MO. Warm front is definitely on the move north.
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Post by cardsnweather on May 8, 2024 7:49:14 GMT -6
FV3 obliterates N areas.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 8, 2024 7:49:22 GMT -6
Quite a hail core there over Cole Camp.
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Post by ajd446 on May 8, 2024 7:49:37 GMT -6
Looks like the southeast turn is happening near the lake
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Post by bdgwx on May 8, 2024 7:56:16 GMT -6
It doesn't show the ongoing MCS though. There's no way the warm front is going to get that far north at this point. |
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Post by ajd446 on May 8, 2024 7:57:32 GMT -6
It's getting cloudy quick. I have a optimistic feel we will be ok in the metro. But still do not want to let your gaurd down.
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Post by Snowman99 on May 8, 2024 7:57:41 GMT -6
f3 has no clue as to what's happening now. Nam 3 has a decent handle. Most of metro gets showers.lol |
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on May 8, 2024 8:09:00 GMT -6
f3 has no clue as to what's happening now. Nam 3 has a decent handle. Most of metro gets showers.lol Initially, the Nam 3 appears to be a few counties too far south. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 8, 2024 8:33:41 GMT -6
This is going to be a close call for the immediate metro
Atmosphere ahead of the MCS is rapidly destabilizing, but the storms may bend further south towards the higher instability
Either way, don’t let your guard down yet
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 8, 2024 8:51:40 GMT -6
That MCS is spinning like a top...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 8, 2024 8:53:06 GMT -6
Looks to me like the warm front isn't going to make it much further than Sullivan to Festus or so...if that far.
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Post by ajd446 on May 8, 2024 8:53:55 GMT -6
That's a great thing for the metro, maybe just some light sprinkles I hope. We do not need anymore rain
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Post by scmhack on May 8, 2024 8:57:00 GMT -6
We’re going to get more than just sprinkles still, it just wont be severe
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Post by John G -west belleville on May 8, 2024 9:00:58 GMT -6
Looking west, it's darkest to the nw
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Post by perryville on May 8, 2024 9:04:37 GMT -6
Timmer is heading across southern Missouri. Dew points well into the 70s down this way.
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Post by weatherj on May 8, 2024 9:08:28 GMT -6
Even here the DP is approaching 70* straight east of STL. I wonder if the moisture transport north once you get east of the ozarks into S IL that Chris mentioned is causing the higher DP here even though the warm front is to my S.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 8, 2024 9:09:16 GMT -6
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Post by packrat on May 8, 2024 9:17:01 GMT -6
Some very cool looking mammatus clouds in Ballwin.
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Post by ajd446 on May 8, 2024 9:33:54 GMT -6
Tornado watch for the south
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Post by perryville on May 8, 2024 9:35:52 GMT -6
74 degrees, 95% humidity and 72.5 dewpoint. Warm front is making its way north.
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Post by goosetalk - Troy, MO on May 8, 2024 9:39:46 GMT -6
Even in this light rain shield in Troy, Mo I’m getting window rattling thunder. Well, I can’t even say it’s really raining much if any.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 8, 2024 9:40:30 GMT -6
Looks like the southward movement of the MCS has halted and it’s moving much more easterly
Might be starting to feed off the instability gradient and higher dews to its east
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 8, 2024 9:41:14 GMT -6
Getting a bit darker in far north St. Peters. The MCS appears to be heading right towards metro STL.
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