twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Jun 8, 2024 15:58:14 GMT -6
The Davis on the roof in North St. Pete recorded .35 from this morning.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 8, 2024 16:30:44 GMT -6
Tstrm watch issued for SW counties.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 8, 2024 17:22:22 GMT -6
Severe t-storm north of Springfield, MO. Looks to be headed a little south of due east.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jun 8, 2024 18:29:10 GMT -6
Easy to see boundary just south of the city on radar and visually from city Park
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 8, 2024 20:11:04 GMT -6
Nice light show looking south from Mascoutah.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jun 8, 2024 20:39:15 GMT -6
We were out at Belleville West for my sister's dance recital. The lightning was amazing.
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Post by tedrick65 on Jun 8, 2024 21:31:53 GMT -6
0.67" this morning, 0.37" this evening for 1.04" today in High Ridge. Nearly 26" YTD.
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Jun 9, 2024 7:09:59 GMT -6
it's Very Moist đź’¦
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Post by REB on Jun 9, 2024 7:24:45 GMT -6
It’s a Goldilocks thing. Some of us too much, some too little and some of us just right.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 9, 2024 7:47:36 GMT -6
It’s a Goldilocks thing. Some of us too much, some too little and some of us just right. The porridge is perfect out here! The tomatoes and onions are looking forward to some dry time. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 9, 2024 8:12:25 GMT -6
Has anyone seen any precipitation totals from across the the Ozarks overnight? Just curious. There looks like there should be some pretty hefty totals.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 9, 2024 8:40:23 GMT -6
Has anyone seen any precipitation totals from across the the Ozarks overnight? Just curious. There looks like there should be some pretty hefty totals. Radar estimate shows widespread 2-5" amounts SW of a JEF to FAM line |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 9, 2024 10:09:42 GMT -6
Looks like we'll have to watch the Thurs/Fri timeframe for a couple potential ridge runners as the ridge builds to our West and heat/instability builds.
Beyond that, models are still showing a potential system developing in the N Gulf that may try to lift into the region late next weekend or early next week.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jun 9, 2024 10:45:36 GMT -6
Looks like we'll have to watch the Thurs/Fri timeframe for a couple potential ridge runners as the ridge builds to our West and heat/instability builds. Beyond that, models are still showing a potential system developing in the N Gulf that may try to lift into the region late next weekend or early next week. Last summer it seems the ridge was often overdone in the forecast and didn't end up as bad a lot of the time. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 9, 2024 12:17:48 GMT -6
Looks like we'll have to watch the Thurs/Fri timeframe for a couple potential ridge runners as the ridge builds to our West and heat/instability builds. Beyond that, models are still showing a potential system developing in the N Gulf that may try to lift into the region late next weekend or early next week. Last summer it seems the ridge was often overdone in the forecast and didn't end up as bad a lot of the time. I'm cautiously optimistic that trend will continue this summer...this coming week into next will be a good gauge of that. |
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Post by dmbstl on Jun 9, 2024 12:26:01 GMT -6
It’s a Goldilocks thing. Some of us too much, some too little and some of us just right. Who is too dry around here? |
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Post by REB on Jun 9, 2024 12:57:32 GMT -6
It’s a Goldilocks thing. Some of us too much, some too little and some of us just right. Who is too dry around here? I don’t think too dry would be correct. Some have received a lot less than others and not optimal for gardens. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Jun 9, 2024 16:24:12 GMT -6
From the forecast this week. Does it look like we are breaking out this rain pattern?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 9, 2024 17:06:48 GMT -6
From the forecast this week. Does it look like we are breaking out this rain pattern? For several days at least...after that, storm chances look to increase some. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 10, 2024 14:47:21 GMT -6
Looks like summer is finally here later this week
Several days of mid to upper 90s
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 10, 2024 16:31:00 GMT -6
The dry spell that is sure to come at some point may be delayed. Likely some tropical moisture in play early next week.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jun 11, 2024 11:58:28 GMT -6
The dry spell that is sure to come at some point may be delayed. Likely some tropical moisture in play early next week. The little system looks to traverse Florida into the Atlantic. They are busting a drought in a big way |
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Post by dschreib on Jun 12, 2024 10:42:35 GMT -6
Question for the smart folks: Are tomorrow's temps strictly heat-island related? I see mid to upper 80s all around the STL metro on the GFS, but 96 over the metro...so it's not like we're getting WAA.
EDIT: I guess maybe it's the Ozark region that's just "cooler" than areas to the SW.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 13, 2024 13:22:33 GMT -6
Mostly UHI.
But the caveat to that is that away from the UHI... especially north and east of STL... the humidity may spike a bit higher do to the evaportransporation of moisture off the vegitation. I say may, because I don't know how far along the crops are at this point... especially corn. It may not be far enough along to contribute a whole lot.
My big question for tonight is how far south will scattered clusters/line segments make it to the south late this evening? The CAPE really drops off quickly once you get to I-70 in our area. I could see a situation where storms fall apart just north of STL but because of the favorable downburst conditions end up throwing out a long stretching outflow that could kick up winds to 50+ mph for a couple hours past after the initiating storms are gone. Kind of like dropping a couple big rocks in a small pond... the ripples last for while.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jun 13, 2024 15:25:05 GMT -6
Mostly UHI. But the caveat to that is that away from the UHI... especially north and east of STL... the humidity may spike a bit higher do to the evaportransporation of moisture off the vegitation. I say may, because I don't know how far along the crops are at this point... especially corn. It may not be far enough along to contribute a whole lot. My big question for tonight is how far south will scattered clusters/line segments make it to the south late this evening? The CAPE really drops off quickly once you get to I-70 in our area. I could see a situation where storms fall apart just north of STL but because of the favorable downburst conditions end up throwing out a long stretching outflow that could kick up winds to 50+ mph for a couple hours past after the initiating storms are gone. Kind of like dropping a couple big rocks in a small pond... the ripples last for while. Lots of guys struggled to get corn in so I bet the impact of evapotranspiration aren't very high. If anything frontal compression may spike see points north of the area. Not a terrible day today. Good breeze at the pool. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 13, 2024 15:27:51 GMT -6
The corn around here is mostly between 1-3' tall and the beans are mostly just starting to come up...I'd say the crops aren't contributing to EVT a lot at this point. There is still quite a bit of ground moisture below the surface though.
Models seem torn with the evolution of the storms this evening and overnight...the 40km NAM and HRRR splits us while the 3k NAM and RAP are more bullish with a broken line of storms or a cluster of multi-cells. It may be a struggle for widespread convection with toasty mid-level temps(700mb ~12*C) and waning instability. But models do show a sharp low-level trof and some mid-level height falls so there is quite a bit of forcing for ascent. We'll see how it goes. I'm going to water the garden for good luck, lol.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 13, 2024 15:44:08 GMT -6
Corfidi vectors and thickness contours strongly support that cluster of storms in NE MO dropping down the river valley...the HRRR is out to lunch with initialization big time.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 13, 2024 15:49:04 GMT -6
Corfidi vectors and thickness contours strongly support that cluster of storms in NE MO dropping down the river valley...the HRRR is out to lunch with initialization big time. I was just coming here to point that out. The HRRR is not even initializing with any convection to our NW. It's going to be tough to get storms south of 70 tonight with lack of instability and capping but a mature MCS can keep going longer than you’d think. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jun 13, 2024 15:51:38 GMT -6
Corfidi vectors and thickness contours strongly support that cluster of storms in NE MO dropping down the river valley...the HRRR is out to lunch with initialization big time. That thing is nasty. 5 inch hail report |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jun 13, 2024 18:26:19 GMT -6
Tornado on the ground in central Illinois
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