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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 23, 2024 8:33:22 GMT -6
6z euro definitely came in north and more intact.
Temps will be a problem for the metro though
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 23, 2024 8:52:57 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 23, 2024 9:02:11 GMT -6
There is something nostalgic about the models bouncing around just like 15 years ago.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 23, 2024 9:11:45 GMT -6
FWIW the AIFS is much further south and colder next week and would favor the southern counties for snowfall
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 23, 2024 9:28:41 GMT -6
FWIW the AIFS is much further south and colder next week and would favor the southern counties for snowfall Definitely a thread the needle setup, but the potential is there |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 23, 2024 12:14:54 GMT -6
12z north continues its trend from 6z with a stronger and north solution.
Back and forth it goes.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331 
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Post by bob on Nov 23, 2024 12:22:41 GMT -6
Wc is the norh trend good for the metro
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 23, 2024 12:25:53 GMT -6
Wc is the norh trend good for the metro Yes and no. This particular run is too far north. But other models and runs have been too weak and suppressed. It will be very hard for it to produce meaningful snow in the metro, but a slightly toned done version of the 12z euro would be your best chance |
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Nov 23, 2024 12:27:34 GMT -6
Thnaks WC
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 23, 2024 12:41:59 GMT -6
The EC has come in amped up and north so it will be interesting to see if the flatter AIFS/EPS trends that way. We need to see the wave that comes across the N tier on Wed dig a bit more and flatten the flow across the lakes ala 00z AIFS. If the mid-level low tracks over us or to the north there's basically no chance for snow here other than a few flakes on the backside. The 12z GEM paints a narrow stripe of wet snow across the N counties with a flatter look.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Nov 23, 2024 13:08:07 GMT -6
Thnaks WC
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 23, 2024 13:13:03 GMT -6
Yeah the models have come in much flatter with the shortwave trough than the dream like scenarios days ago. Nonetheless, areas north of I-70 in the metro area are more in likely zone for snow (accumulating who knows?). Overall, I think the immediate metro and south has a chance to see some flakes fly at the very beginning especially at higher elevations before changing to cold rain and maybe some flakes on the cold air backing side of the system! As always we could end up high and dry with nothing! Still too early of course. More changes ahead.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 23, 2024 13:46:12 GMT -6
12z EPS has shifted aggressively north in line with the operational euro.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 23, 2024 14:59:21 GMT -6
Euro AIFS is still suppressed and snowy
Might be our last hope
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 23, 2024 15:42:56 GMT -6
Euro AIFS is still suppressed and snowy Might be our last hope The 12z AIFS EPS has abandoned the operational. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 23, 2024 16:19:04 GMT -6
If the 18z gfs was a little colder I’d be intrigued.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 23, 2024 16:32:58 GMT -6
FWIW the AIFS is much further south and colder next week and would favor the southern counties for snowfall Definitely a thread the needle setup, but the potential is there Same song, different year. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 23, 2024 17:39:10 GMT -6
Definitely a thread the needle setup, but the potential is there Same song, different year. It's about what you expect this time of year...getting meaningful snow before Dec. 1st takes a pretty ideal setup around here. It's tough enough in the heart of winter most years, lol |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 23, 2024 22:21:21 GMT -6
00z Icon, gfs, and ggem are all weak and suppressed.
More interesting opportunity appears to be next Saturday with a clipper and actual cold air.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 24, 2024 8:30:31 GMT -6
Enjoy the 60-70*F weather today! Looks like we won't be seeing anything close to that for a bit. Largely 30s, 40s, and maybe 50s for highs next 10 days. Lows could drop into the low 20s/upper 10s depending on winds, clouds, and if we get any of the white stuff.
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Post by rb1108 on Nov 24, 2024 11:27:03 GMT -6
If looking at "timimg", if we go cold next week, and then have a typical mild period afterwards, might we get lucky to go cold again around Christmastime?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 24, 2024 13:21:07 GMT -6
If looking at "timimg", if we go cold next week, and then have a typical mild period afterwards, might we get lucky to go cold again around Christmastime? Wouldn't bank on it. Holiday time is when it will likely warm up again taking us into at least the first couple weeks of January. After MLK Day and as we turn into February things could get wicked again, especially if a SSW Event gets going in January. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 24, 2024 13:26:39 GMT -6
Saturday Night into Sunday could be a watcher. Pretty much done with the Thanksgiving 'Storm' doesn't look like much if anything our way. (Too Suppressed). Weekend system could be our first accumulating snow. GFS a tad north, but likely warming us too fast, especially with an even colder shot of air behind next weekend's hybrid clipper.
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 24, 2024 13:51:51 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by yypc on Nov 24, 2024 15:10:09 GMT -6
Bitter cold December 2-4 so at least there’s that
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 24, 2024 22:32:22 GMT -6
Nice thump of snow showing up on the 00z ggem for Saturday night in the metro.
Clipper will bounce around in location and intensity by model and run, but encouraging to see it exist at all at this lead time.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 24, 2024 23:17:35 GMT -6
Nice thump of snow showing up on the 00z ggem for Saturday night in the metro. Clipper will bounce around in location and intensity by model and run, but encouraging to see it exist at all at this lead time. Yep that's our best chance to see some snow! It's been consistently on the models now. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 25, 2024 12:06:10 GMT -6
Well ukie and euro gi e us a white Thanksgiving weekend. Interesting.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 25, 2024 13:10:32 GMT -6
Saturday does look interesting
These clippers are notorious model headaches, so we’ll have to wait and see.
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Post by bdgwx on Nov 25, 2024 15:42:01 GMT -6
NBM is saying 30 F for KSTL tomorrow morning. Should that verify that will be first freeze of the winter season and second latest at the airport.
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