Over the Atmospheric River and through the Woods
Nov 20, 2024 17:13:03 GMT -6
REB, guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters, and 1 more like this
Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 20, 2024 17:13:03 GMT -6
At long last, the fresh smell of a new blog with the added bonus of some legit interesting weather the next week+. As always, interesting does not necessarily mean lots of precip, but it does mean some tough forecasting may be ahead.
There is no question the pattern has turned towards a more active and more early winter look…although it also remains somewhat chaotic. The cold air spilling into the Midwest the next few days will have some bite to it when put up against the mild temperatures of the past few days. I have to say to evolution of the Great Lakes system(s) is very interesting to watch as well as the various spins interact to generate the larger upper level low. The temperature profiles are crazy with that system as the warm air wraps all the way up to the north of the circulation and the cold air (cold enough to support snow) tucks around behind and south of the system. There could be some decent snowfall rates and reduced visibilities across eastern Wisconsin into northern Illinois Thursday as the strongest piece of energy curls south through the Great Lakes. Accumulations will be limited by warm ground and time of day… but I expect to see a few inches up that way Thursday into Thursday evening. The trajectory has shifted every so slightly to the east in the past few rounds of data which means only our far eastern most counties appear to be in the running for a few flakes of snow Thursday evening…with a much better chance of majestic “mood snow” further east into Indiana and Ohio.
Thanks to the potent jet stream associated with the atmospheric river along the west coast, our pattern will quickly return to progressive which means this shot of cold air will not be around long. The weekend looks quite mild – especially Sunday!
Thanksgiving week continues to offer some interesting potential. It would be fun (and not fun if you are traveling) to see a 12z GFS solution play out. There are a lot of variables in play next week that could drastically change how the entire pattern comes together. The dual jet streams…with strong flow in both the northern and southern streams. Potential for some (or no) phasing… jet interactions/dynamics and then there is the timing of major energy ejecting east from the west coast. The big picture set-up certainly favors at least a seasonably cold Thanksgiving week… if not even a bit below normal. The alignment of the upper-level flow also argues for some sort of over-running event at some point… but whether the air in the Midwest is cold enough to support widespread snow remains highly uncertain at this time. Also uncertain is whether a solid chunk of energy gets ejected from the west coast trough… or not. With all those variables still outstanding, there will be no shortage of interesting twists ahead to watch. I’m definitely forecast colder weather to return next week along with some scattered showers for Wednesday. With all the uncertainty, I’m not going to mention any wintry precipitation at this time as there is still time to ramp up into that. Is it possible… for sure. Is it a high enough chance to risk escalating the panic meter over the mere mention of snowflakes? DEFINITELY NOT!
There is no question the pattern has turned towards a more active and more early winter look…although it also remains somewhat chaotic. The cold air spilling into the Midwest the next few days will have some bite to it when put up against the mild temperatures of the past few days. I have to say to evolution of the Great Lakes system(s) is very interesting to watch as well as the various spins interact to generate the larger upper level low. The temperature profiles are crazy with that system as the warm air wraps all the way up to the north of the circulation and the cold air (cold enough to support snow) tucks around behind and south of the system. There could be some decent snowfall rates and reduced visibilities across eastern Wisconsin into northern Illinois Thursday as the strongest piece of energy curls south through the Great Lakes. Accumulations will be limited by warm ground and time of day… but I expect to see a few inches up that way Thursday into Thursday evening. The trajectory has shifted every so slightly to the east in the past few rounds of data which means only our far eastern most counties appear to be in the running for a few flakes of snow Thursday evening…with a much better chance of majestic “mood snow” further east into Indiana and Ohio.
Thanks to the potent jet stream associated with the atmospheric river along the west coast, our pattern will quickly return to progressive which means this shot of cold air will not be around long. The weekend looks quite mild – especially Sunday!
Thanksgiving week continues to offer some interesting potential. It would be fun (and not fun if you are traveling) to see a 12z GFS solution play out. There are a lot of variables in play next week that could drastically change how the entire pattern comes together. The dual jet streams…with strong flow in both the northern and southern streams. Potential for some (or no) phasing… jet interactions/dynamics and then there is the timing of major energy ejecting east from the west coast. The big picture set-up certainly favors at least a seasonably cold Thanksgiving week… if not even a bit below normal. The alignment of the upper-level flow also argues for some sort of over-running event at some point… but whether the air in the Midwest is cold enough to support widespread snow remains highly uncertain at this time. Also uncertain is whether a solid chunk of energy gets ejected from the west coast trough… or not. With all those variables still outstanding, there will be no shortage of interesting twists ahead to watch. I’m definitely forecast colder weather to return next week along with some scattered showers for Wednesday. With all the uncertainty, I’m not going to mention any wintry precipitation at this time as there is still time to ramp up into that. Is it possible… for sure. Is it a high enough chance to risk escalating the panic meter over the mere mention of snowflakes? DEFINITELY NOT!
