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Post by guyfromhecker on Feb 11, 2014 17:04:02 GMT -6
For those who bashed me for alluding to this winter as potentially being a 70s type thing I accept your apologies. All I see now are posts and articles comparing this winter to some of the worst in the 70s. I saw early season storm track and just had a feeling. They don't call it patterns for nothing. Some patterns are harder to shake than others. This one has hung on and made comebacks.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 11, 2014 18:40:26 GMT -6
No one is going to apologize to a conceited person like this. No need to. You have congratulated yourself time and time again because you pretty much know everything. You made a huge deal out of the school evacuation plan you came up with. No one has seen this plan yet, because you were afraid of "backlash". Post it like you promised you would. It's almost that time of year again.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Feb 11, 2014 19:18:51 GMT -6
No one is going to apologize to a conceited person like this. No need to. You have congratulated yourself time and time again because you pretty much know everything. You made a huge deal out of the school evacuation plan you came up with. No one has seen this plan yet, because you were afraid of "backlash". Post it like you promised you would. It's almost that time of year again. Chill out 99. Name calling from a mod. WTG! Holding a grudge? BTW, about the evacuation thing. It is way too complicated to be made into a model for all. I shoulda conceded that at the start. It would fit some schools, but not all. Probably more meant for rural schools. Some schools have actually done it in tornado alley before. I just think it has to be an option. It's better than ducking down your head in an ill-prepared building. Now, to correct you. My wife says I am self righteous at times, closed minded, and unrelenting, but says no on the conceited thing. She knows me better.  |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Feb 11, 2014 20:00:54 GMT -6
One of the reasons I expected a real bad winter simply had to do with the odds. Severe winters were being experienced over other parts of the N hemisphere the last few years and I just figured the polar jet wasn't gonna miss us forever. When this stuff is going on we get it eventually.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 12, 2014 8:16:59 GMT -6
Ok, I apologize Phil. I have been sick and in a bad mood, my dog now has diabetes, lol. So anyone asking for apologies just kind of set me off. So sorry for calling you conceited and coming off like an a$$, wasn't really my intent.
Carry on.
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Post by dschreib on Feb 12, 2014 12:16:39 GMT -6
To be fair, you can't just say a winter "like the 70s" and leave it at that. The 78 and 79 winters are really the benchmarks, just like the 82 snow. Unless something drastic happens, we won't be close to either of those. If you would have come out and said, "we're going to have snow and cold that will rival 197x", then we would have something to compare this winter to, and we could follow up with, "Phil nailed it" or "Man, Phil missed it by a mile". I don't recall ever seeing that. If you did, and I missed it, I'll apologize for that. Also, I think the comparisons on the Corner to the 70s are concerning the temperatures in MN, unless I missed a bunch of posts with facts that compare this winter in St. Louis to any in the 70s.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Feb 12, 2014 16:09:27 GMT -6
Ok, I apologize Phil. I have been sick and in a bad mood, my dog now has diabetes, lol. So anyone asking for apologies just kind of set me off. So sorry for calling you conceited and coming off like an a$$, wasn't really my intent. Carry on. I know the feeling snowman. I been sick since Friday. On Saturday my friend sent me a couple of texts just like any other weekend. I just ignored them because I couldn't find anything nice to say. He sent another and I told him to leave me the you know what alone. Oh man that is so sad to hear about your dog. I hate the D word. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Feb 12, 2014 16:15:46 GMT -6
To be fair, you can't just say a winter "like the 70s" and leave it at that. The 78 and 79 winters are really the benchmarks, just like the 82 snow. Unless something drastic happens, we won't be close to either of those. If you would have come out and said, "we're going to have snow and cold that will rival 197x", then we would have something to compare this winter to, and we could follow up with, "Phil nailed it" or "Man, Phil missed it by a mile". I don't recall ever seeing that. If you did, and I missed it, I'll apologize for that. Also, I think the comparisons on the Corner to the 70s are concerning the temperatures in MN, unless I missed a bunch of posts with facts that compare this winter in St. Louis to any in the 70s. Well, my whole point is this. Folks always go around hunting for the "matching" year when these winters end. I can tell you what I thought then and what I know now. They are not gonna be able to dig out anything in the past 30 years to compare it to. That's pretty much the way it is gonna be for a lot of the places in the upper MW and many places east of the Mississippi. This was a throwback to some other time. Maybe it was a 60s winter. All I know is it doesn't fit the modern era. That is what I was trying to say. I used the 70s because that's the winters I remember. It is kind of like, "back when winters were winters". I can't pull up the 60s that well. I was too young. |
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Webster Groves
Weather Intern
Posts: 753
Snowfall Events: '15-16 Running Total: 4.5"
___________________________
'14-'15
Feb 28 5.0
Feb 20 0.5 total ZR/IP/SN
Feb 16 2.5
Feb 5 0.5
Nov 26 1.75
Nov 16 1.9"
Running Total: 12.2"
_______________
2013-14: 27.5"
2012-13: 20.75"
2011-12: 3"
2010-11: 33"
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Post by Webster Groves on Feb 12, 2014 17:22:33 GMT -6
For those who bashed me for alluding to this winter as potentially being a 70s type thing I accept your apologies. All I see now are posts and articles comparing this winter to some of the worst in the 70s. I saw early season storm track and just had a feeling. They don't call it patterns for nothing. Some patterns are harder to shake than others. This one has hung on and made comebacks.
And yet it wasn't like the winters of the 70s. You cannot accept what it not given to you. Well, I guess you can, but technically, that's stealing. |
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 12, 2014 17:23:15 GMT -6
The thing that sticks out in my mind is the downright cold, even without snow. The snow department, IMO has not been impressive regardless of totals. Why, because of the nickel and dime snows. No big snow followed by add-ons, and no winter long snowpack. Just my opinion.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Feb 12, 2014 17:53:00 GMT -6
For those who bashed me for alluding to this winter as potentially being a 70s type thing I accept your apologies. All I see now are posts and articles comparing this winter to some of the worst in the 70s. I saw early season storm track and just had a feeling. They don't call it patterns for nothing. Some patterns are harder to shake than others. This one has hung on and made comebacks.
And yet it wasn't like the winters of the 70s. You cannot accept what it not given to you. Well, I guess you can, but technically, that's stealing. Webster, wait til they go looking for the magic matching analog. It sure isn't gonna fit anything from the 80s, 90s, or 00s. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Feb 12, 2014 17:55:30 GMT -6
The thing that sticks out in my mind is the downright cold, even without snow. The snow department, IMO has not been impressive regardless of totals. Why, because of the nickel and dime snows. No big snow followed by add-ons, and no winter long snowpack. Just my opinion. Only one or two of the 70s winters had a long term snowpack. The whole decade wasn't like that. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Feb 12, 2014 18:09:46 GMT -6
If I was gonna pick a year right now, I would go with 1973-74. We'll see.
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Webster Groves
Weather Intern
Posts: 753
Snowfall Events: '15-16 Running Total: 4.5"
___________________________
'14-'15
Feb 28 5.0
Feb 20 0.5 total ZR/IP/SN
Feb 16 2.5
Feb 5 0.5
Nov 26 1.75
Nov 16 1.9"
Running Total: 12.2"
_______________
2013-14: 27.5"
2012-13: 20.75"
2011-12: 3"
2010-11: 33"
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Post by Webster Groves on Feb 12, 2014 19:26:14 GMT -6
And yet it wasn't like the winters of the 70s. You cannot accept what it not given to you. Well, I guess you can, but technically, that's stealing. Webster, wait til they go looking for the magic matching analog. It sure isn't gonna fit anything from the 80s, 90s, or 00s. But that still doesn't make it like the 70s. You of course are free to say this winter reminds you of whatever year you wish...but the data does not support a true analog. |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 12, 2014 22:30:28 GMT -6
If I was gonna pick a year right now, I would go with 1973-74. We'll see.
Snowfall 1973/74 (Dec) 26.3 (Jan) 4.2 (Feb) 4.5 (Total) 35.0 Average temp - 32.0 Might as well use 2009/10: Snowfall 2010/11 (Dec) 7.9 (Jan) 14.7 Feb) 6.5 (Tot) 29.1 Average temp - 31.5 Current Winter: 2013/14 (Dec) 5.6 (Jan) 15.8 Average temp - Dec (33.4) Jan (27.6) Feb first 11 days (17.7)--so 28.6 for an average |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 12, 2014 22:31:11 GMT -6
I was actually thinking closer to 1981/82, but I don't think we'll be cold enough.
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Post by lizard7151971 on Feb 13, 2014 8:27:52 GMT -6
I had a lady tonight I work with tell me "I don't remember it ever being like this in the winter. The cold and the snow, and the wind Chills." Now this lady is a bit older then me, maybe 10-20 years older (If she is younger them me, then she tanned way too much). I told her that I remember as a kid, in grade school. The school started the Wind Chill rule. If the wind chill got below -30 the school called off. So she either has a very bad memory, or was not in IL/MO in the late 70's/ Early 80's. Heck I remember back in those times, a winter like this would be normal.
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Post by RyanD on Feb 13, 2014 23:16:45 GMT -6
I believe I was the first to mention I thought this winter would be more like '76/77 but I didn't think it'd be as cold as that winter. Maybe Phil beat me to it though but I never saw him mention it until after x-mas. Pretty hard to match that magnitude of cold from '76/77 but I did think we could match those kind of snow totals and have more bitter cold unlike we've seen around here in a very long time. I'm sure I posted that in late Nov. I was told it was unlikely because those winters had a very negative AO but this winter the AO has gone negative much more than predicted and the -EPO has been our real savior. I'm not about to say "I was right" because I didn't say it'd be just like that winter. I'm all for giving credit where credit is due but overall for me this winter has been better than any winter I can recall since the 80's or maybe early 90's. The '09/10 winter for me was forgettable. I recall nothing about it. I know we didn't get below zero here nearly as much, Lambert didn't drop below zero though on a global scale I believe '09/10 is a good analog. I also believe we are going into a pattern of several winters (much like the late 70's) of harsh winters. You can see how the polar vortex is being displaced by the warm anomalies over the arctic circle. I have no clue if that also occurred in the late 70's or not but I see no reason that won't continue for at least a few more years but that does concern me as it will continue to effect arctic ice levels. The forecasts that are going to bust hardcore were the ones calling for warmth and little snow. I think Friv called for a warm winter with little snow but then revised it to like 25" of snow? I'm not certain as I didn't catch those posts so I don't want to misquote him but I'm fairly certain he called for a warm winter but I can't blame him as the teleconnection predictions looked fugly at the time but it appears the AO forecast (for this winter) was very poor as I think it called for a highly positive AO and I don't believe that has been the case. It's gone from negative to positive. Taking a quick look it's been mostly negative all of Jan with only one positive spike which may have been during our warm week in Jan when most of the "blizzard" melted away. Speaking of which. Before the last few snows I had a 2" pile about 5x5' leftover from an old drift from the Jan 5th storm. I can't think of a winter where I had a patch of snow on the ground for a month straight that wasn't a pile from snow removal. In Feb the AO has trended back positive currently sitting around +1. Current forecast (which has been awful this year) has it going negative then positive then looks like about equal chances of going either direction.
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