Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2014 16:09:37 GMT -6
Without a doubt, forecasting heavy snow is one of the most challenging and one of the most important things we do. It is also unquestionably the most high visibility forecast we make. Miss the location of the heavy snow band by even 10 miles and you may end up forecasting 10" for a place that gets 2" or vice versa. The GOLD STANDARD for forecasting the location of the heavy snow band is the Gore-Younkin-Brown (GYB) technique. Do not be suckered into following model QPF placement as the models are more often than not WRONG! If you use GYB correctly, I guarantee it will get you much closer than any model QPF will. It has saved me countless times. But it MUST be applied correctly. Not every event is a good candidate using GYB.
Here is an excellent link with the basics of the GYB. Note, this only helps forecast the LOCATION of the band... not the amount!
maddogchief: LOUD NOISES!!!
Feb 25, 2019 2:31:00 GMT -6
grizzlebeard: I'll put this here since it rarely rolls over: Please include your location in your profile, or identify your location when posting observations. You saying it is 20 and raining doesn't help if we don't know where you are. That is all.
Feb 7, 2019 13:44:40 GMT -6
giarC71: Hello...this could be historic. And those models of 16 inches or 19 inches.. coild be real..
Jan 11, 2019 18:04:52 GMT -6
snowday_lover: So weird.... sun is really out here right now. I just expected it to be full cloud cover by now. Hopefully the clouds move in soon. I'm ready to see what we get down here.
Feb 6, 2018 12:15:23 GMT -6
tk: Wagons East- Never was close....I'm with Snowman for once even though he is crazy negative but I get it....
Jan 9, 2018 20:50:54 GMT -6
STGOutdoors: Why is forum locked?
Dec 18, 2017 10:55:20 GMT -6
gonefishin - WashMO: Okay. I know these storms are no laughing matter, and I don't know if anyone has posted this, AND I know it's from the Weather Channel, which in and of itself causes it to lose some credibility, but this is one of the funniest things I've ever seen.
Sept 10, 2017 11:27:09 GMT -6
bellevillewxguy: Let's give a BIG Shout for the Great American Total Solar Eclipse! Here's to good viewing conditions for everyone!
Aug 20, 2017 19:09:33 GMT -6
MakeitRain: The 12z NAM wants to develop a line of storms through the metro around 1-2pm this afternoon. However, the HRRR is not picking up on this piece. I would not rule out the chance of severe weather as we head into the afternoon.
May 18, 2017 11:13:07 GMT -6
REB: 1.57 Wednesday. 2.31 since midnight. 5.92 since Friday. Total........7.49 and still coming down.
Apr 30, 2017 9:59:34 GMT -6
fojginmo: Glad I'm on higher ground & won't have to worry about flash flooding any more.
Aug 2, 2016 21:58:56 GMT -6