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Post by toddatfarmington on May 5, 2022 7:44:19 GMT -6
There sure are a lot of reports of flooding. Shouldn't a warning have been issues. At least aereal flood warning. Per chat earlier this morning, "We're continuing to watch the flooding situation, but so far the rain has been falling at a slow enough rate that flash flooding isn't an issue yet". They noted some areal flood advisories were hoisted to address rises in some streams.
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 5, 2022 6:54:07 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 4, 2022 20:44:58 GMT -6
Locket TX may have taken a direct hit. Their is a pic of the tornado as it was going through Locket, very destructive looking tornado
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 4, 2022 19:39:09 GMT -6
Some absolutely amazing video footage out of both TX and OK on some unfortunately destructive storms tonight
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 4, 2022 14:12:36 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 2, 2022 13:27:49 GMT -6
www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0171.htmlTornado watch covering nearly 2/3 of the state of OK and southern KS * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail expected with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 1, 2022 5:26:34 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 30, 2022 13:29:52 GMT -6
Why did the SPC Watch Issuance disco show a large area in eastern and south eastern MO but then the Tornado Watch is issued further north and east completely out of the SPC disco. Am I missing a piece of info somewhere? 2 watches issued
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 30, 2022 13:09:08 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 30, 2022 12:14:49 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 30, 2022 0:43:18 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 29, 2022 21:10:54 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 27, 2022 6:38:10 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 20, 2022 20:56:10 GMT -6
Finally found enough morels to fill a fry pan but just barely. Seems like things are just getting started where I hunt...there's some very fresh greys just coming up. Might be a nice flush coming on after the warm weather later this week with all the rain but we'll see. Easily the slowest start to the season I've ever seen with these frequent cold snaps but far from the latest start so it's an odd season so far. My first find was two full weeks ago and it's barely advanced since. Seems like only the earliest spots have flushed so far. Me and a buddy went to Shawnee Forest Easter Sunday and only found one small yellow. It seemed like it hasn't even really started down there yet. Very odd. Good luck out there! Found four sacks full of morels on Saturday. Looked again today and came up empty.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 13, 2022 12:49:01 GMT -6
/photo/1
Kevin Deitsch has sent out an email as well regarding this event titled "What Happened to the Severe Weather Today" to all the partners who attend the conference calls with a graphic explaining what happened. I feel for all the forecasters as they will take it on the chin over this. Everything pointed to a substantial severe weather day, today just reaffirms the fact that the data available to the meteorologists isnt flawless or perfect.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 13, 2022 10:39:47 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 13, 2022 10:16:43 GMT -6
Tornado Watch going up momentarily
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 13, 2022 9:22:20 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 13, 2022 8:24:23 GMT -6
.UPDATE... ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT WED APR 13 2022
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF POPS FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STILL FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, LARGELY FOR AREAS FROM THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AS OF 14Z, THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, JUST EAST OF KIRKSVILLE AND JUST WEST OF COLUMBIA. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF IT HAVE WEAKENED A BIT, BUT THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/CLOUD COVER FROM THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND INSTABILITY. LATEST HRRR HAS INITIALIZED THE CURRENT CONVECTION WELL AND INDICATES THAT THE STORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE STL METRO AREA BY 17Z-18Z TIMEFRAME. IF THE LINE OF STORMS BECOME SEVERE, THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WINDS GUSTS, MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.
ANOTHER ISSUE THAT HAS NOT BEEN ADDRESSED IS THE PROBABILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY HIGHER THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT ANYWHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS AND RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 13, 2022 8:21:10 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 13, 2022 8:18:25 GMT -6
NWS STL will be updating their messaging soon to reflect the trends in guidance by HRRR. Quick synopsis is that storms entering SW MO from OK will build northeast along I-44 this morning with the northern extent reaching the STL Metro by the lunch hour. The front is making steady progress east and the amount of convective debris/cloud cover will limit insolation and instability. The threat of severe weather late this morning and this afternoon remains for locations largely from STL and points south and east. "IF" this line of thunderstorms becomes severe it will be capable of producing severe wind gusts, marginally severe hail and a few tornadoes. Two different times? Or in concert with one another? Once the front clears the metro around midday the storm threat will no longer exist.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 13, 2022 8:01:36 GMT -6
NWS STL will be updating their messaging soon to reflect the trends in guidance by HRRR. Quick synopsis is that storms entering SW MO from OK will build northeast along I-44 this morning with the northern extent reaching the STL Metro by the lunch hour. The front is making steady progress east and the amount of convective debris/cloud cover will limit insolation and instability. The threat of severe weather late this morning and this afternoon remains for locations largely from STL and points south and east. "IF" this line of thunderstorms becomes severe it will be capable of producing severe wind gusts, marginally severe hail and a few tornadoes.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 13, 2022 7:51:02 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 13, 2022 6:29:23 GMT -6
HRRR continues to speed things up, with storms arriving by lunchtime for most of us. This could mitigate the severe threat a little, but don't let your guard down just yet...lots of shear in play. HRRR certainly painting a different picture this morning than it did yesterday. However completely agree that it has to be taken with caution as the severe threat certainly isn't off the table.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 12, 2022 14:21:52 GMT -6
Metro area could really dodge a bullet on this, but the metro east and especially southeastern tier of counties is under the gun. Models seem to be heading towards a faster exit from the area, but if incorrect or too fast then things could get ugly. Timing is key! Per the NWS, actually what happens with the storms overnight (or lack therof) is the primary concern on how tomorrow may play out.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 12, 2022 14:20:21 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 12, 2022 13:40:50 GMT -6
NWS Conf call at 13:30 today, nothing that hasn't really already been put out their already, so no need to recap, however they do have a heightened concern over timing, as this event is likely to impact the area earlier than normal and schools and businesses will likely still be occupied. Latest Sitrep covers updates: www.weather.gov/media/lsx/DssPacket.pdfThe NWS did ask that the preparedness info in the below slides be aggressively shared with the public, so here you are Edit: I cant seem to get the individual slides to post correctly, please visit NWS STL Twitter twitter.com/NWSStLouis?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor/photo/1
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 12, 2022 7:06:29 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 11, 2022 10:37:00 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 8, 2022 7:18:26 GMT -6
Some Minor accumulations this morning around KFAM area on non-roadway surfaces.
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