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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 10, 2022 12:32:00 GMT -6
Severe Weather Season Arrives in St. Louis Well… sure looks like we are jumping from cold and snow into severe weather quickly over the next few days. Today is beautiful and temperatures will continue to warm well into the 70s for most of us. There are two main episodes of severe weather for us here. The first is tonight… and the primary focus continues to be on hail…with some wind possible. There is a risk of a few tornadoes in southwest Missouri… but the capping inversion looks tough to break further east and I’m not sure we can break through that in our neck of the woods. So while I keep an eye on it… my biggest concerns in our area focus on large hail…as rotating storms aloft can be mighty prolific hail producers. Much of the activity will shift out of the viewing area tomorrow morning and I’m not sure how much we get after that. Some of the far southern most counties and communities…like around Fredericktown and Perryville may still be in line for redevelopment… but the rest of us look to be well into the stable air at that point behind the front. Tuesday appears to be a “down day” of sorts…. And very warm! Looking at Wednesday… the NAM is particularly concerning because it is slower with the frontal passage and allows for a significant severe threat to develop over eastern Missouri into Illinois. The SKEWT below is from the NAM at midday Wednesday pulled right over downtown STL! The GFS is faster and further east… waiting to develop the severe storms until the front passes just east of the Mississippi River. That timing is going to be critical and will be one of the major points of emphasis in the forecast going forward.     |
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 10, 2022 12:50:43 GMT -6
First.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 10, 2022 13:34:07 GMT -6
Just one NAM run, but it has some beefy CWASP values on Wednesday  |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Apr 10, 2022 16:36:27 GMT -6
Reed Timmer did a breakdown of the severe threat, he talked mainly about Arkansas. Hoping we don't get too bad here, I don't need a damaged car.
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Post by WeatherGuyRyan on Apr 10, 2022 17:32:21 GMT -6
What time will the radar become active ?
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Post by Jeffmw on Apr 10, 2022 17:37:18 GMT -6
So the real chance for us looks like Wednesday?
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 10, 2022 18:07:12 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 10, 2022 19:28:14 GMT -6
And...We have ignition with storm cells firing across the northwestern quadrant of the viewing area.
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Post by Jeffmw on Apr 10, 2022 20:04:14 GMT -6
You know Spring is definitely here when it’s 75 degrees at 9pm.
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Apr 10, 2022 22:58:57 GMT -6
It's trying 🌩⛈🌨🌧☔️💦🌬💨🌪
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Apr 11, 2022 4:29:13 GMT -6
Had some pea size hail with this storm that just moved through.
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Post by bororug on Apr 11, 2022 4:46:48 GMT -6
Just had some pea to marble size hail come thru Festus. Now just heavy rain.
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Post by amstilost on Apr 11, 2022 4:49:20 GMT -6
That sure was loud on the roof. Surprised (and glad) to only see 3/8 or so hail. a little smaller than marble sized here. Our alert did not go off. It looked on radar that the core hail was just south-southeast of me at 7 miles west of De Soto. Worried to see the garden and recently built plastic covered greenhouse as daylight gets here. Glad it wasn't worse and has me worried for Wednesday.
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Post by amstilost on Apr 11, 2022 5:02:05 GMT -6
I just pulled 2 of the larger hail off the deck, up against the side of the house and measured and took a pic. 5/8 and 3/4". I will download pic after uploading to comp.
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Post by amstilost on Apr 11, 2022 5:36:14 GMT -6
 Yippee, |
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Post by amstilost on Apr 11, 2022 6:35:20 GMT -6
I still have a good 'dusting' of hail throughout the yard and field. Even after 2 hours I still found a couple hailstones at 1" along the elongated side, not a complete 1" diameter. Plastic on greehouse held up. I was really nervous when I seen hailstones lined up 8' INSIDE the unfinished framed door. Must have just blew in. No holes in the roof. Really need a 'thumbs up' in here.
BTW, to clarify, the 'yippee' in the previous post was success in pic posting, not that we got 3/4" hail.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Apr 11, 2022 6:59:44 GMT -6
Had some hail at the lake just southeast of Marissa …. Mostly quarter size with a few bigger ones …. Thankfully it only lasted a few minutes
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 11, 2022 8:01:11 GMT -6
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mrbogs
Weather Weenie
Posts: 19 
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Post by mrbogs on Apr 11, 2022 8:26:20 GMT -6
Hey Deerkiller - House Springs...please check your PMs.
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 11, 2022 8:33:53 GMT -6
The GFDL's 3km GFS is showing some robust updraft helicity tracks from the STL metro area and points south for Wednesday.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 11, 2022 10:37:00 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 11, 2022 10:42:28 GMT -6
Yep, Wednesday is looking potentially nasty here. Time of day unfortunately is about perfect for max severe potential.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 11, 2022 11:49:42 GMT -6
HRRR looks pretty scary for Arkansas this evening, showing multiple large supercells.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 11, 2022 11:56:00 GMT -6
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Post by mosue56 on Apr 11, 2022 15:39:18 GMT -6
Rain rain go away! Now thunder in Festus, the first since the crack of dawn!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 11, 2022 16:46:40 GMT -6
Wednesday is definitely looking like a pretty ripe setup for sigsevere stuff around here and down across the Arklatex/Lower MS valley. Negatively titled shortwave ejecting out with strong diffuence and veering flow developing during peak heating...that's a recipe for a potentially big outbreak. Quite a few models depict bands of supercells developing across Central MO and spreading across the river valley mid-afternoon.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 11, 2022 19:06:55 GMT -6
Wednesday is definitely looking like a pretty ripe setup for sigsevere stuff around here and down across the Arklatex/Lower MS valley. Negatively titled shortwave ejecting out with strong diffuence and veering flow developing during peak heating...that's a recipe for a potentially big outbreak. Quite a few models depict bands of supercells developing across Central MO and spreading across the river valley mid-afternoon. Several things that are ominous to me... 1) The lead shortwave in the southern stream is forecast to zip along and should only help put a lid on convection after it passes through the AM hours Wednesday. This same subsidence should also allow for more heating in the wake of the late night early morning activity that will impact mainly southern IL. 2) The potential for very limited... if any... disruption of the warm sector from the previous days severe weather (or lack-there-of) There is a solid chance that not much develops south of I-70 Tuesday in KS and MO because of the cap strength and the displacement of the upper support. Instead... an arcing band of supercells seems likely from near OMA down to near St. Joe... with those storms rapidly lifting northeast tomorrow evening. If storms fail to penetrate into central Missouri tomorrow night...then we will have an untouched and very unstable airmass over eastern Missouri for Wednesday midday into the afternoon ahead of the front. That's bad news! If we get to that point, then this situation certainly will merit an upgrade. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 11, 2022 19:38:02 GMT -6
Some pretty big supercells in Arkansas. Near Little Rock.
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 11, 2022 19:43:24 GMT -6
12Z GFDL 3km GFS is still looking robust with the UH tracks for Wednesday. In fact, I'd say they are more numerous on the 12Z cycle vs the 0Z cycle in Missouri. SBCAPE is > 1000 j/kg in the warm sector and approaching 2000 j/kg along the front west of the metro at 18Z on the latest cycle.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 11, 2022 20:59:59 GMT -6
00z NAM and 3km NAM both look pretty nasty Wednesday afternoon, advertising a squall line of embedded supercells in a ripe environment.   |
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