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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 18, 2024 14:49:55 GMT -6
Singular cell moving into Saint Clair County and Northern Monroe County in Illinois could be a watcher!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 18, 2024 12:08:03 GMT -6
Severe Storm Watch issued
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 18, 2024 10:11:12 GMT -6
SPC seems a bit more concerned with the very large hail threat followed by the wind with a hatched 30% for Significant Hail over use, and unhatched 30% for wind along with the 5% probs for tornado. Noon update should be out in within the hour for 16:30 UTC update. Current one is from 12 UTC.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 1, 2024 9:09:27 GMT -6
Not to be outdone by the threat of Severe Storms today, but Wednesday could be interesting as cyclonic flow along with a solid cool pool aloft with several disturbances rotating around the upper/mid level low could bring some sloppy wet snowflakes into the mix especially northeast of St. Louis, but can't rule it out even here. One thing is for sure my head is killing me today, which is usually a good sign of a very strong storm system and or dynamic one moving in!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 31, 2024 15:22:15 GMT -6
Looks like 82*F did us for the high today. Once again a couple degrees warmer on the east side then in downtown/Lambert Airport.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 31, 2024 11:53:52 GMT -6
Latest update took away the 10 percent and hatched tornado threat. Boo. And that's a bad thing how? Still plenty of threat for wind and hail. Somewhere is gonna get a good soaking, likely along and north of I-44/1-70.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 29, 2024 17:24:21 GMT -6
Models and Ensembles looking more promising as we get closer to the eclipse 4/8. Now looking like we'll be more likely then not dry and likely fair to partly sunny skies. Looks like the next big storm holds off till the 9-11th period.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 23, 2024 7:41:04 GMT -6
GEFS and GEPS all suggesting wetter than normal conditions for the period around the Eclipse... Grrr....
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 19, 2024 17:03:16 GMT -6
Likely an amateurish question, but it seems winds/sustained winds have been fairly consistent over the last couple weeks. Wondering if some sort of dominating condition is responsible… Thanks! Typical spring patterns. Jet Stream is still quite close and the differential of the stronger heating of the Earth from the sun and colder airmasses aloft mixing. Happens pretty much every year and winds down as April and especially May approaches and Summer nears.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 19, 2024 17:01:37 GMT -6
Ah, those over performing temps especially on the metro-east side. Looks like we got into the mid 70s, with 73 @ 5PM's update. Down to 71*F now as of the 6PM one. At St. Louis Downtown Airport near Grizzly Stadium/Sauget.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 14, 2024 14:41:09 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 14, 2024 14:40:48 GMT -6
It's been Tornado Warned now.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 14, 2024 14:31:41 GMT -6
Storm heading towards Jefferson County, MO is now Severe Warned.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 14, 2024 14:30:09 GMT -6
Cell is now east of Hermann seems to be right turning a bit, Tornado likely to form shortly with it, if not already.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 14, 2024 14:27:40 GMT -6
Action getting frisky west of Ceder Hill and Hillsboro a concern as it moves toward Jefferson County.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 14, 2024 14:24:43 GMT -6
I'd be Tor Warning that cell, but obviously not my call...
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 14, 2024 14:17:20 GMT -6
Storm northwest of Hermann, MO starting to get suspicious. She might be forming a hook.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 14, 2024 13:17:52 GMT -6
Also storms firing up around Jefferson City, here we go!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 14, 2024 13:16:48 GMT -6
Posted on the LSX FB page "As of 3/14/24 the NWS St. Louis radar is back in service and available for use." Yep, the old Montgomery Scott thing from Star Trek. Say it's gonna take 2 weeks, then get it done in 6 days. That way it seems like miracle work! Plus if there is issues it's built into the timeframe, and if nothing bad happens and it's done early everyone is happy!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 14, 2024 13:05:44 GMT -6
Yeah from the probabilities it looks like Hail is going to be the main star of the show as expected, but definitely some tornado potential there!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 14, 2024 12:39:08 GMT -6
To battle stations!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 14, 2024 12:34:25 GMT -6
Sirens sounding in Shrewsbury. My office is evacuating to the stairwells in Chesterfield. All the warnings north of here. Why ? Bc sirens are activated county wide Which is silly and numbs people to it. If the NWS can use/issue polygonal warnings, why can't counties and municipalities activate sirens in similar fashion? Only activating in areas perhaps 1-2 miles from the edge of the polygon and of course along and inside of it. While those beyond 1-3 miles will not be warned unless the warning polygon chances or spotters/Law Enforcement/Emergency Services sees the tornado changing direction if it's on the ground and relaying to the emergency response coordinator/office in charge of activating sirens.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 14, 2024 12:17:18 GMT -6
Did the LSX office turn on the radar? Its available!!!! Perhaps the upgrade got done sooner then expected or their just briefly testing it.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 14, 2024 12:07:35 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 14, 2024 11:54:14 GMT -6
Anyone chasing today?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 13, 2024 21:14:12 GMT -6
Ah love that model spread. FV3-HiRes shows a very active day starting around 2-3PM as well as one of the WRFs while the NAM and other WRF are showing the St. Louis split (not a bad thing in this case) with the action well north and south of the metro. Pretty much comes down to how the morning plays out at this point.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 13, 2024 19:52:09 GMT -6
Severe Thunderstorm warning for 3.5 inch hail in the KC metro area guess we're going straight to softballs then... Interesting. The system definitely has been outperforming even some of my 'extreme' predictions as far as hail size and it's still not even the 'main' event.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 13, 2024 19:33:53 GMT -6
I'd say this severe weather season could be the most active in our area in the past several years. Rest of the spring pattern just has the look. Tough west, deep gulf flow into the Mississippi River Valley, and strong ridging along the southeast. Not all the time of course, but 3-4 major episodes seem likely. We're in one now, and again in end of March/first week of April, followed by last 10 days of April into the first 2 weeks of May, and again in early June. Summer could see us in the firing zone of MCS clusters as well but time will tell.
The period in late April/May is the most concerning overall due to it's length and ideal time of year.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 13, 2024 19:05:08 GMT -6
Well it looks like things are starting to slow/shutdown locally, but action has quickly turned back to KC and northeastern Kansas for round two where there's some big storms gathering steam there. Some models bring it down to our area in the early morning, but some miss entirely. If the former is the case we could get off somewhat easier tomorrow evening/night. If not, then we could be in some trouble. I think anywhere along and south of I-70 is in the line of fire tomorrow evening/night. North of there might get off easy comparatively.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 13, 2024 18:55:27 GMT -6
She's a beaut! I think I even saw a 'Beaver Tail' in that shot. Nice view of a Supercell!
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