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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 25, 2019 19:45:03 GMT -6
Can't believe we are already seeing all this digital snow on the models. Time flies and if you remember it was just in the 90s just over 3 wks ago 😲. Over the whole 18z GFS run snow totals...just around 1/8 the total "forecasted" digital snow without Kucherio snow conversations (more like 1/5 after taking that into account) would be historic for October climatology records! Oh so much potential, oh so exciting! Something still doesn't seem right, is it all a dream with this recent data? I hope not. I'll take flurries like Chris is saying! I would be so happy if we just got 1in haha!!
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 25, 2019 10:00:29 GMT -6
What are ground temps currently running? I'm thinking it would take an awfully intense dump of snow to get accumulation considering only a few weeks ago temps were still 90. Haven't checked but would think they are running in the 50s. agebb.missouri.edu/weather/reports/soilTemp2.aspYou are right!
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 24, 2019 17:27:33 GMT -6
At this point the NWS forecast for Halloween is sunny and 48. Kids would still need coats but no flakes flying NWS typically factors in climo more heavily in the later part of their forecast...as well as ensembles which are going to smoothe out some of the more extreme operational solutions. Good point! It's rare to see the NWS or a forecasting outlet forecast model runs verbatim from operational model runs especially in a season (fall) now when snow is not common at all. I would be anxious to hear your view on ensemble forecasting in the future? I believe ensemble forecasting will become much more common and advanced soon. It already is, but I mean in a way which the news outlets start using it in the future for TV forecasts to the public. NWS uses mos and other blends right now. Many advanced forecasters use it, that's why I think it's the best way to go when it comes to the 3-5 day (medium range) window for sure.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 24, 2019 9:17:05 GMT -6
I guess I better get snow equipment out and make sure it all is operational for another season. Usually try to get this done by October 15th but has been a very busy year so far. Don't jinx the snow chance away next week haha
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 19, 2019 11:02:23 GMT -6
The crazy thing is that it has been showing this pattern now for multiple days!
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 18, 2019 23:11:41 GMT -6
The 00z GFS looks like fun around these parts in about 10 days! We would be talking about snow. Pure fantasy, but this upcoming blocking pattern with southern moisture supply looks good tho early. Maybe too good to be true haha. Either way a hard freeze is becoming more likely before October is done! My parent's house in Wildwood already touched 30 last Sat morning for a bit, but not at or below 26. We COULD be at or below 26 for a sustained period in the coming week plus. It will be interesting to see what the model runs show in about 3-5 days and how this ends up.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 2, 2019 12:10:10 GMT -6
Heading out on the road for the morning weather later on. I'll be meeting up with one of our very own members here! He is launching a weather balloon with his class...it should be fun. You should watch Didn't watch. So was it through...Dr. Pasken's class at SLU? I remember being involved with one back in my earlier college meteorology days!
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Post by ndolan387 on Sept 28, 2019 8:09:57 GMT -6
A decent cell is coming for you Snowman99, should be over you in like 5ish minutes! Looks like the I-44 corridor has been hit, south county and further south are next. Looks like it slid south of Union. True, your right! St. Clair is getting hit. Some more rain on the way for Union.
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Post by ndolan387 on Sept 28, 2019 7:56:17 GMT -6
A decent cell is coming for you Snowman99, should be over you in like 5ish minutes! Looks like the I-44 corridor has been hit, south county and further south are next.
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Post by ndolan387 on Sept 27, 2019 15:05:14 GMT -6
92 is the new record, dethroning the old record of 91 from 1891! It's amazing what big time warm advection and a strong ridge can do!
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Post by ndolan387 on Sept 27, 2019 14:56:06 GMT -6
Are you a extremist? You like really cold and hot. I like it when we break weather records for cold and snow, but not heat haha. You can take this heat 😫! lol. I like this weather. Then snow ranks as my second favorite. Extreme cold is down there pretty far on my list. You might be recalling my rant abt the ssw last year a bit out of context. That thing was talked abt for a month before it impacted us with 2 days of extreme cold. I dont like cold without snow, if its cold it may as well snow. Oh okay. I understand your stance better!
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Post by ndolan387 on Sept 27, 2019 9:48:06 GMT -6
After looking at the location of the thermal ridge...and getting comfortable with the limited impact from any morning storms down near I-70... I have bumped highs up to record levels for today. Southwest winds, a thermal ridge ahead of a cold front... all spell highs at or above 90 for the metro. The record for today is 91.... set in 1891! That is definitely in jeopardy IMO. Frankly, ill take it. I say this every year...im not a fall fan. Are you a extremist? You like really cold and hot. I like it when we break weather records for cold and snow, but not heat haha. You can take this heat 😫!
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Post by ndolan387 on Sept 22, 2019 21:59:16 GMT -6
Not really seeing the big above normal temps later this week Care to elaborate?
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Post by ndolan387 on Sept 18, 2019 13:00:58 GMT -6
It looks like we may have to get used to it for the next couple weeks through muted compared to now, thanks to a lower sun angle and less hours of daylight! I'm waiting less patiently now for that trough out west to slide east into our neck of the woods.
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Post by ndolan387 on Sept 10, 2019 8:58:02 GMT -6
September seems to be shaping up as a toasty month overall!
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Post by ndolan387 on Sept 1, 2019 21:29:22 GMT -6
For those of you who follow such nonsense... persimmon seeds have spoons in them this year. Means snowy winter right haha?
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 31, 2019 12:32:36 GMT -6
And we think we are inconvenienced when the models flip flop on winter storms. Imagine one day thinking your house is going to be swept away to the next day being told it should stay offshore and vise versa. Models continue to get worse. I believe it's really hard to know if models have gotten better or worse. The medium long range 3-5 days I think has gotten better over the years. Though the hurricane model family (WRFs) may have not had as much funding recently. Also Dorian is a very complex hurricane to forecast! Anyone know specifics on the hurricane models?
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 30, 2019 15:46:22 GMT -6
Tornado warning (rotation), but not on the ground going toward eastern Wildwood and Clarkson Valley. Which is just east of me in Wildwood off Wildhorse Creek Road.
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 26, 2019 2:19:28 GMT -6
Did not expect a tornado warning out of this line of storms. Nevertheless I see that weak rotation just south of Hermann I didn't either. You can see the hook pretty well on the radar signature. I imagine there is a cool pool and some good shear as well.
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 25, 2019 12:54:41 GMT -6
GFS brings the 5400 to touch the lower 48 out in the fantasy periods. Right on cue seasonally. Just can't believe how fast this summer has gone by. Sad. Why what do they show? The magical thickness layer aloft in the atmosphere to roughly use as a tool to predict the rain/snow line. Hope that helps!
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 25, 2019 11:07:15 GMT -6
Nice downpour the last 20ish min here in Wildwood.
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 23, 2019 12:40:18 GMT -6
Old Farmer's Almanac says winter will be "Snowy, Icy, Icky". Tbh I feel like they say basically the same thing every year, but just with different synonyms or adjectives haha! But I will say it's fun to look at as I have caught myself doing it, especially more in the past.
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 22, 2019 6:44:17 GMT -6
Thanks guys!
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 21, 2019 21:02:02 GMT -6
Anyone else having issues with RadarScope showing 7+ hr old radar but current lightning strike? Only on kslx radar for me. Even checked on iPad and wife’s iPhone as well St. Louis radar is down for repairs. Use the terminal radar at Lambert Can send out a link? I'm having trouble finding it. Thanks! We have had heavy rain here in Wildwood, seems to have slowed down a bit now.
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 19, 2019 11:29:48 GMT -6
Congrats Chris! That's awesome!!
Any reason why the radar is down at NOAA?
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 18, 2019 10:07:49 GMT -6
Thanks. Just watched it. Overall it was a great weather program for the public. Still adjusting from Dave’s forecast though when it comes to specifics. I’m ready to track some snowstorms lol Dave's will be out this Thursday the 22nd on Facebook by around 5:00pm and on the radio (97.1) at 4:30pm.
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 16, 2019 11:40:43 GMT -6
If I’m reading the models right next week we could see a couple days in the upper 70s for highs. Am I right? The 12z GFS says 70s for highs the following week starting on 8/26. I just saw 90s for next week. I don't know what the Euro is saying. Too far out though. Overall, you are right the trend is for a cool down, but it looks like the last week or so of August right now.
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 11, 2019 21:10:18 GMT -6
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 9, 2019 11:54:24 GMT -6
What does the ring of fire pattern entail? Storm complexes tend to follow the edge of the ridge/heat dome and we're riding that line into next week with a lot of energy coming ashore off the Pacific. It seems like Kansas City has been in that region this week. Now it's going to shift east. Cool thanks!
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Post by ndolan387 on Aug 7, 2019 20:46:06 GMT -6
The main storm train looks to stay to our west but some may sneak east starting tomorrow. Looks like the ring of fire pattern really gets going around here next week as frequent energy comes over the top of the flattening ridge... What does the ring of fire pattern entail?
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