Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 29, 2019 11:00:31 GMT -6
Time to freshen things up. Yesterday, we passed the date of the earliest recorded freezing temperature in St. Louis. Below you can see in the image other historically significant dates for freezing temperatures. Obviously, we have nothing imminent in terms of freezing around here... but after some near record heat early this week...we will chill back to some true fall air late in the week. I have always maintained that... on average...the longer and more extreme the warmth is going into Fall... the more likely it is for a colder winter...and that the transition from one to the other gets shortened. It doesn't always work...but it is a good starting point. Like last year, I will not produce any specific long range forecasts for this winter. The main reason is that I'm not the chief... and that job rests with the chief. I don't want there to be conflicting messages out if there is disagreement.
So... with that in mind... here are those important dates for freezing temperatures....and enjoy the upcoming week of major temperature swings!
1/4” of moisture this morning and you sure can feel it when walking outside this afternoon. Took the day off to go over range/stove shopping with my wife and ended up getting a fridge/freezer as well.......would have been a LOT CHEAPER to go to work today!!!
Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 29, 2019 17:05:45 GMT -6
Not including today (because the numbers are not final) September's average temperature is 77.5 As you can see... that is still good enough for the hottest on record. Considering the temperatures we had today and what is expected tomorrow... it sure looks like September 2019 will go in the books as the warmest ever in St. Louis.
If you include the presumed high/low for today as reported on the early update... then the average jumps to 77.7. If you include the forecast high/low for tomorrow (92/73) then the average goes up to 77.8.
So unless something totally unexpected occurs... this will be the hottest September on record!
There's a pretty interesting battle going on between the GFS and ECMWF in regards to Lorenzo's future. GFS has one of the most convoluted and complex set of interactions I've seen on a model run. It shows the extratropical low near Greenland before changing course and making landfall in Iceland. The Euro has it missing the phase and sends it into the Bay of Biscay. The D5 difference between the two is nearly 1700 miles!
maddogchief: LOUD NOISES!!!
Feb 25, 2019 2:31:00 GMT -6
grizzlebeard: I'll put this here since it rarely rolls over: Please include your location in your profile, or identify your location when posting observations. You saying it is 20 and raining doesn't help if we don't know where you are. That is all.
Feb 7, 2019 13:44:40 GMT -6
giarC71: Hello...this could be historic. And those models of 16 inches or 19 inches.. coild be real..
Jan 11, 2019 18:04:52 GMT -6
snowday_lover: So weird.... sun is really out here right now. I just expected it to be full cloud cover by now. Hopefully the clouds move in soon. I'm ready to see what we get down here.
Feb 6, 2018 12:15:23 GMT -6
tk: Wagons East- Never was close....I'm with Snowman for once even though he is crazy negative but I get it....
Jan 9, 2018 20:50:54 GMT -6
STGOutdoors: Why is forum locked?
Dec 18, 2017 10:55:20 GMT -6
gonefishin - WashMO: Okay. I know these storms are no laughing matter, and I don't know if anyone has posted this, AND I know it's from the Weather Channel, which in and of itself causes it to lose some credibility, but this is one of the funniest things I've ever seen.
Sept 10, 2017 11:27:09 GMT -6
bellevillewxguy: Let's give a BIG Shout for the Great American Total Solar Eclipse! Here's to good viewing conditions for everyone!
Aug 20, 2017 19:09:33 GMT -6
MakeitRain: The 12z NAM wants to develop a line of storms through the metro around 1-2pm this afternoon. However, the HRRR is not picking up on this piece. I would not rule out the chance of severe weather as we head into the afternoon.
May 18, 2017 11:13:07 GMT -6
REB: 1.57 Wednesday. 2.31 since midnight. 5.92 since Friday. Total........7.49 and still coming down.
Apr 30, 2017 9:59:34 GMT -6
fojginmo: Glad I'm on higher ground & won't have to worry about flash flooding any more.
Aug 2, 2016 21:58:56 GMT -6