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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 7, 2024 21:33:10 GMT -6
Hopefully the Fri/Sat system trends become more encouraging.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 6, 2024 23:08:18 GMT -6
That jet coupling at hour 144 on the GFS is mesmerizing. I was just looking at that! Absolutely no words. Groundhog Day 2011 revenge 2.0. GEM looks more realistic.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 6, 2024 23:06:43 GMT -6
00z gfs has STL go below 0 on the 14th-16th. Very impressive and dangerous cold Looks very realistic to me if we get that deep snowpack!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 6, 2024 9:22:25 GMT -6
Yeah they lowered the criteria from 6 in to 5 in for a watch/warning I believe.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 5, 2024 23:29:18 GMT -6
Systems like this evening remind me again why I fell in love with weather when I was 9 years old. Absolutely beautiful outside! Expect the unexpected. Let's keep this theme running thru next week. I hope we get to use the magical word that starts with the letter that comes after a.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 4, 2024 22:44:55 GMT -6
boy if the Canadian would just be right this time LOL I was dumb and bought a cheap electric snowblower that's supposed to be here Sat so I know I already jinxed my chances. Haha it looks even better for you in IL than the earlier 12z and 00z runs. Less impressive further west.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 4, 2024 22:24:17 GMT -6
The soundings from that GFS "death band" are wild This would be heavy heavy snow with monster flakes Probably some thunder as well It's getting real when the term "death band" is used. Very fun to look at. Just hope you're in the band. With that kind of setup comes a crazy tight snow gradient as others have mentioned.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 4, 2024 16:22:15 GMT -6
The stronger the system becomes means it's more likely someone is going to get dry slotted (caught in no man's land) on the deformation side of the system. That wouldn't be good if the majority of the WAA portion of this system could be rain (yes some wet snow too). I cherry picked a sounding and it's way too close for comfort. The high over the northern Rockies needs to shift further SE. I'll gladly take a flatter and weaker system relatively speaking if that means we don't get hosed with rain and then dryslotted. Luckily it's only Thursday. As others have said, once we get to Saturday we can start adding true confidence to the forecast.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 4, 2024 13:49:32 GMT -6
I really hope this doesn't end up like that storm last year that bombed out over the benchmark and sprayed us with heavy cold rain. That's a distinct possibility. It would be nice to have an unmitigated path for the cold air to take. The reality is though that from source to destination is brown. Some of it coming across an area that is still seeing a significant drought. That is concern #1 for me. However, that is mitigated somewhat by a vertically stacked system, so the ability of the storm to create its own cold is a bit greater IMO. As with any storm the last five years, there will be distinct winners and losers. Personally, I think the Godfrey area will be on the southern most portion of the snow, potentially even up to the northern counties of the viewing area. Those east of the metro better be preparing themselves for a nice cold rain, myself included up in SPI, IMO. QIN and COL seem safe at this point. All of that said, a slightly weaker or stronger system will be the determining factor I think. Stupid phasing. Just my .2 cents at this point. Trying not to get caught up in finer details right now. www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fseprd1045012.htmlYeah the snowfield doesn't look good.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 4, 2024 13:15:01 GMT -6
To me... the upper level features on the Euro this afternoon do not line up with the surface features. I will guess the later runs will again shift south. Your snowfall event totals caught my eye. In the last 10 years, there have only been 2 winters with snowfall totals above 20"! Winter of 2012 to 2013 would have been over 20" with the Palm Sunday Storm (March 24, 2013) sealing the deal.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 3, 2024 20:38:07 GMT -6
When the gfs and euro agree theyâre tough to beat. Kind of a Yadi Waino thing! Unless they agree on St. Louis being ground zero for a blizzard. Then you can be certain there will be a shift and they are wrong. Groundhog Day Storm in 2011.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 3, 2024 13:33:15 GMT -6
GFS looks good. Still showing a powerhouse low Most of the area would have a heavy hit of front end snow transitioning to rain before a hit of backside snow. Happy that we are in the 5-7 day window now. Yeah and the storm it shows on the 14th/15th is pure textbook.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 2, 2024 22:51:35 GMT -6
Goes slightly neg tilt as it strengthens and passes thru our area. Low placement is too far north, but we are still a week out. Location-wise... everything above 850mb looks great to me...just too strong which results in too much warm air advection at those levels for a change to snow. We want the track... just not the intensity. Below 850mb... the features are north of the classic bench marks for most of our viewing area. Yes good clarifying! Though some of the heavier bands seem SW/W/NW of the immediate metro as the low scoots north near STL. Yeah our "friend" climatology would bet on the WAA robbing us with rain even if it's a quality upper level track. Too early for getting too detailed.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 2, 2024 22:24:50 GMT -6
This is what you want to see at this range Goes slightly neg tilt as it strengthens and passes thru our area. Low placement is too far north, but we are still a week out.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 2, 2024 9:31:36 GMT -6
Sorry Snowman. Your Mom will continue to be in spirit with you, your Dad and your family.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 1, 2024 20:27:51 GMT -6
Today was just one of those days when the thick Jan stratus rules the day and the forecast highs are too warm and bust by 5-7*!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 1, 2024 20:23:28 GMT -6
Prayers to you, your Mom, and family Snowman. If we do get snow, hoping that Union is the jack pot zone for one of the storms!
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 1, 2024 20:17:08 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS is trending towards some winter love for late this week into the weekend. I know some of you have been talking about it at times already. And then there is that Jan 10-15 window. That could be fun... or agonizingly close... followed by winter heartache. It's not a STL winter if there's no heartache!
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 31, 2023 14:43:16 GMT -6
Jan 7th is looking better on the GFS. This is a going to be a complicated pattern because the cyclone on Jan. 7th is going to affect the evolution of the potential cyclone following it around Jan. 9th. That's why I like forecasting in the cold months! It's the time of the year where there are more variables at play than during the warm months. Thus, there are more possible outcomes. Severe weather is very hard to forecast (not to undermine it) as it usually turns into the nowcasting type of situation.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 29, 2023 22:00:13 GMT -6
Anybody catch that GFS run with 40" of snow in STL đ
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 27, 2023 23:03:06 GMT -6
It will be interesting to see if the band reintensifies as it drops south as the HRRR and RAP have been indicating around midnight or so. Yeah it looks less impressive than it did earlier. Additional dusting/heavy dusting in spots maybe.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 27, 2023 22:02:03 GMT -6
Yeah the atmosphere definitely exceeded my expectations for our area today with the snow. Hamsters. The little things!
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 27, 2023 15:22:48 GMT -6
A heavy dusting in Wildwood.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 27, 2023 11:37:20 GMT -6
Getting a little dusting on the grass. Massive big flakes.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 27, 2023 10:51:25 GMT -6
There's this white stuff falling from the sky. Not sure what it's. đ Seriously though, big flakes in Wildwood. So good to see it. đ
Temp has dropped from 37* to now 34*.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 26, 2023 20:23:37 GMT -6
I foresee some dramatic haves and have nots with this system. Someplace might pick up 2-3â and a few miles down the road may have seen a handful of flakes total Iâll be surprised to see accumulations that high, and if it does happen it will be outliers in elevated areas west and southwest of the STL metro. Yep elevation is higher the further west you go. The westerners could be the "winners" lol with maybe 2"+ lollipops.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 26, 2023 19:38:38 GMT -6
Update:
***Update: 12-27-23 to 12-29-23 Low Impact Deep Cyclonic Rain/Snow System Two Part System***
Part 1:
Start Time: Rain will spread west to east after 12am tonight.
Amounts: a dusting west of STL metro (near the middle part of the state). STL metro no accumulation. Looking more and more like rain with Part 1 for the STL metro. Starting as rain once again after midnight tonight. HRRR looks awfully wet, warm at first. HRRR has a wet bias, using a blend of other models I'd say the precipitation is going to be light for a lot of Part 1 (maybe moderate at times). Pretty bad that we can't even get snow in the middle of the night on Dec 26-27th. If the precipitation rate increases look for the rain to switch to a wet snow before sunrise tomorrow for the STL metro. This is a not a uniform socialistic precipitation pattern. There are going to different mesoscale bands. Just west of the STL metro all the way to central MO looks like the prime zone for heavier rain/snow. So it will be switching on and off between rain and snow. It's a slop fest! Winds out of the SE.
Part 2: Start Time: Timing is still iffy. Late Wed/After 12am Thursday.
Amounts: a heavy dusting...potentially 1"+ where the best mesoscale bands set up. Right now the zone between Jeff City and Warrenton is the jack spot zone for heavier amounts. A higher chance of 1-2". There should be a break from the mesoscale bands Wed evening/night before Part 2 comes early Thurs. morning (after 12am Thurs.). Part 2 is no longer a wild card. We are within the famous 48 hr to add some true confidence to the forecast. Part 2 is the meat of potatoes of this deep cyclonic 2 part rain/snow system!
The position and location of the TROWAL will determine where the strongest mesoscale bands set up. The temps look less borderline and colder (than Part 1) as this piece of cyclonic energy generates its own cold air supply. More moisture, higher snow/rain rates mean that the wet snow will have a better chance sticking to elevated surfaces and the grass before sunrise Thurs. The speed of this TROWAL is still up for debate. The slower and the deeper the cyclonic is, will determine if the STL metro sees a heavy dusting or dare I say 1"+ wet snow sometime Thursday.
Expect more changes in the start time of Part 1 and 2 and the speed, location of the mesoscale bands of rain and snow. Enjoy this mood snow! This system is a reminder that it's winter after all even though it's not impressive! â¨
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 26, 2023 11:00:25 GMT -6
Some thoughts (some of which aren't all correct):
***12-27-23 to 12-29-23 Low Impact Deep Cyclonic Rain/Snow Two Part System***
***Watch for Changes in the Coming Hrs/Days***
Do not expect big snow accumulations. This system is just a setup down toward a vibe that feels more like winter. Part 1 will be weaker and less impressive than the wildcard Part 2. Haha, I just contradicted myself. Elevation will play a role in it. The warm air advection could be more impressive than expected, leading to more rain than snow with Part 1. IF Part 2 pans out then it will be the meat and potatoes of our potential heaving dusting (maybe 1â+).
The atmosphere finally wants to play some winter minor league ball for the middle part of the country especially the St. Louis Metro. Itâs been a lackluster start to winter thus far. The theme in recent years is for a backloaded winter. The majority of our winter precipitation falls in late Jan, Feb, and March.
All eyes on our system (Part 1) of interest currently over the Northern Central U.S. Starting upstairs at 250 mb, thereâs a screaming jet streak to our south reaching 170 to 180 kts. We happen to be on the northern side of this jet streak. As area of low pressure slides to the east, we end up on the left exit region of this jet. So thereâs upper level divergence. In layman terms, the vector length of wind direction is increasing as well as spreading air out.
Looking at 500mb (50,000ish ft up in atmosphere), the features include a deep neutral cyclonic shortwave trough stretching from just west of the 4 corners region east all the way into the Ohio Valley. Deep positive cyclonic vorticity is focused across the middle of country and then the STL neck of the woods as this shortwave trough spins our way late Tuesday into Wednesday. Whatâs interesting about this system is the initial wave spin of energy early Wed may not be the full story. The shortwave does reach maximum strength in terms of vorticity late Tuesday just to our west. So we have our lift. As well, we have warm air advection out ahead with Part 1 so thatâs another lifting mechanism. The air feels cold, but itâs relatively warmer upstairs in the sky.
The area of low pressure starts out in the Nebraska area today and slides our way later in the week. Part 1 features a weaker low. Itâs a 1000+ mb surface low so it's weak sauce. If Part 2 delivers, the upper level low could become stronger as the TROWAL becomes an influence.
The true wildcard with this system is the TROWAL (Part 2) that tries to set up late Wednesday into Thursday/Friday. Timing on this is still iffy. With borderline temps elevation will play a role in if some areas see snow or rain. The area of low pressure is trying to reach max strength somewhere near our area. Whenever and wherever it closes off, will then determine what part of Missouri will see more or less rain/snow. As well, how long the snow wants to last. Location and timing of this trough of warm air aloft will determine if we do get a heavy dusting of snow (maybe more). Some more cake and icing on the cake (i.e. wrap around cyclonic driven snow). This would be in the later Wednesday to Thursday timeframe. Expect changes in the time of this Part 2 wildcard feature.
This system has to generate its own moisture profile as the Gulf of Mexico looks to be mainly closed off. As well, PWAT values seem very low so in terms of moisture this system is not impressive in terms of amounts. The initial waves with Part 1 do have an influence from some warm air advection. Warm lolâŚit still feels cold after all this warm wet weather weâve seen. Warm relatively speaking. Out ahead of the system today winds will be gusting out of the South. Before the wet snow spreads into the area, winds will shift toward the SE. The cold air advection part of the system is (Part 2) when winds switch to the NNW.
One of the last important pieces to the puzzle is the temperature profile. In addition to generating its own moisture supply, this system will also have to produce its own cold air supply. A very borderline setup. The one thing we do have going for us when looking upstairs in the atmosphere down to the surface, thereâs no pesky warm wedge creating a headache with precipitation type. It will either be rain or snow. None of that yucky freezing rain or sleet haha.
Itâs important to stress that timing and details of when the system decides to close off and develop a TROWAL late Wednesday into Thursday will affect the potential strength of this cyclonic piece of energy. As well, determine if we do get more a heavy dusting (more than 1â of wet snow accumulation). The models will start to hone in on the more accurate solutions later today.
Timing:
Part 1: After 3am till midday Wed (12-27-23)
Rain or snow could break out as early as Wed morning after 3am across the area from west to east. The recent short range model (HRRR) is showing it breaking out as rain. Temps will be above freezing so anything that falls (rain or snow) wonât stick. I canât rule out it sticking to the grass or elevated surfaces if it does want to snow. This is going to be a mood wet snow and it wonât cause any issues for drivers Wed morning. Break then
Part 2: Late Wed or early Thursday start time. Lasting potentially into early Friday. (12-27-23 to 12-29-23). Timing is going to change.
Look for a little break in the precipitation as it warms up later Wed. Part 2 with the TROWAL if it happens will begin any time during the day Thursday. This will most likely start out as rain, but as the sun sets look for a transition to snow late Thursday into Friday as the system starts to wrap up and we lose solar insolation. Winds will begin to increase out of the northwest as it generates is own source of cold air. As we get closer, Part 2 will be become more clear.
Amounts:
Expect some rain with this system and potentially expect some wet snow. Mainly rain with Part 1 maybe a dusting of snow on the grass or elevated surfaces with part 1. Depending on how much energy is associated with part 2, we could get an additional heavy dusting, dare I say more (1â+)!
We are starting to get back to more seasonal temperatures and the white stuff is trying to fall from the sky. Another tid bit of information is if the mysterious Lambert Airport receives at least a trace of snow it will be latest trace of snow of any winter season ever recorded since 1900. Though Lambert was at a different location than its location now in 1900; thatâs important to note! Enjoy this little set down into winter. A more colder and wintry pattern looks more likely during the first week of January. Too far out to get fancy!
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 25, 2023 11:36:49 GMT -6
Merry Christmas! Radar looks mighty dope this late morning.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 24, 2023 22:47:56 GMT -6
GOES East shows some clearing from just east of Columbia, MO to the central Mississippi Valley thru south central Illinois. A better chance for some areas to reach 65* + today! 70 is a stretch. It's one of those days in the winter where high temps could overachieve! 68 at KSTL, 67 at KSUS. Temps overachied more than the forecast this morning. The clearing really helped add that boost.
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