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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 24, 2023 22:47:56 GMT -6
GOES East shows some clearing from just east of Columbia, MO to the central Mississippi Valley thru south central Illinois. A better chance for some areas to reach 65* + today! 70 is a stretch. It's one of those days in the winter where high temps could overachieve! 68 at KSTL, 67 at KSUS. Temps overachied more than the forecast this morning. The clearing really helped add that boost.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 24, 2023 10:55:46 GMT -6
GOES East shows some clearing from just east of Columbia, MO to the central Mississippi Valley thru south central Illinois. A better chance for some areas to reach 65* + today! 70 is a stretch. It's one of those days in the winter where high temps could overachieve!
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 21, 2023 23:28:44 GMT -6
18z gfs is trying to have a 10 year anniversary on Jan 5 lol This is already gone on the 00z GFS. 🥹
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 15, 2023 21:52:39 GMT -6
So who's staying up tonight tracking the rain coming in? LOL I just checked the radar haha. I figure we should get all the rain we can get in Dec before it gets "cold" and dry later. It will be interesting to see if we can get any snow when we finally do see our first true Arctic airmass front of the winter.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 13, 2023 17:49:54 GMT -6
End of run but GFS and GEM are showing pattern change...let's hope. Probably a day or two late for Xmas but at least moisture and eventually Colder..MJO really peaks into phase 8 and 1 by then into New Year. Last time I checked (few days ago) so may have changed but also +PNA -NAO as well..keeping the winter dream alive!! Lol. Something's gotta give at some point...right? Keeping the faith alive!
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 5, 2023 12:26:51 GMT -6
The current drought is the best part . Win win Yes the drought is bad still, but at least we are slowly starting to get out of the hole. Hopefully the upper Midwest gets a lot of snow/moisture this winter too.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 5, 2023 11:50:47 GMT -6
Gust ("cold") front went thru or is about to! Dropping temps this afternoon!
Also it seems to me at least that Dec is getting off to a cloudier start than what was originally forecasted 3-5 days out. Observed highs have been slightly colder relatively than expected. Just more proof that's it's a struggle to have sun for an entire day in December in STL! Unsettled and wet is becoming more common for Dec for STL. Something Snowman knows too well. Hopefully we can change to a snowier pattern the 2nd half of Dec.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 4, 2023 20:37:23 GMT -6
The cold connection the EURO shows looks very borderline with the N stream wave lifting into NE Canada well ahead of the lifting/deepening storm. But I could see how a rapidly deepening cyclone like that could produce enough dynamical lift to change over to wet heavy snow as it passes. We'll have to see how that trends over the next several days. Yep! Deformation snow!
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 28, 2023 8:30:31 GMT -6
Yeah there are multiple other pulses of energy poised to swing our way even after the rain system this week. I'll gladly take rain over snow instead of having no moisture/rain (I know I just hit a nerve to some on here). 😂 If it's not snowing, snowman isn't happy.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 26, 2023 15:25:39 GMT -6
There is a slim chance of accumulating snow on Friday. Several ensembles show something interesting, but will require everything to lineup perfectly. A better chance for you in Chicago. You aren't kidding when you say a slim chance!
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 17, 2023 14:29:36 GMT -6
It seriously as others have mentioned, looks like we are in for a much more interesting pattern for the last week ish of Nov into the first week of Dec. Lots of shortwave troughs coming thru our region! Maybe one will deliver the snow goods here and not miss us to the west or east.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 12, 2023 15:35:11 GMT -6
Chris, happy to see that Rosie has turned the corner and is feeling better!
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 9, 2023 15:34:33 GMT -6
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 9, 2023 15:27:55 GMT -6
12z GFS looks very close to spitting out some back deformation snows for next Fri (11/17). I'm sure it will disappear soon haha. Only thing interesting until something big starts brewing later towards Thanksgiving week.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 8, 2023 22:37:21 GMT -6
Some stats for today's crazy 84* anomaly at KSTL!
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 6, 2023 15:42:28 GMT -6
I'm for keeping DST permanent, for the record; but here's a nice interactive graph.
Interesting, this article is against DST year round. It's saying CST (time we are on now) is the best year round option. This article makes a lot of good points. I agree with it. Thanks for sharing!
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 5, 2023 21:21:11 GMT -6
No matter what time we are on, you can always count on someone to complain about it. 😂
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 5, 2023 20:14:34 GMT -6
I know there’s some really, really smart people on here. Scientific as well. So, here’s my question… Is there any kind of scientific, economic or even strategic reason for DST? Man I really hate it. One thing though that comes to mind is the sun wouldn't rise in the morning till 8ish am or after thru Dec and a good portion of Jan. That would seem weird to me.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 30, 2023 19:11:17 GMT -6
30* this am, impressive with a noteworthy WNW wind all last night into the morning/day. Looks to be about 10-12 hrs below freezing tonight and tomorrow night! Lows around 25-26* early tomorrow morning and lows around 22-23* Wed morning!
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 28, 2023 15:56:47 GMT -6
The Union / STL Metro Special...dry donut hole! Maybe a sneak peak at how one of the winter storms will look like this winter for STL. 😂😊
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 28, 2023 13:11:11 GMT -6
Looks like the unsettled pattern will continue the first 10-15 ish days of Nov.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 27, 2023 16:57:28 GMT -6
I noticed that, and im glad. Too cold too early is not encouraging imo. If we can stay in the 60s for a while, then gradually step down in the 50s for the rest of the month, then i can hope that cold air is building in our source region. We've got a long way to go...I'd be more concerned if it were November. I agree! I don't think we will "drain" our winter cold at the end of Oct / early Nov.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 20, 2023 13:49:54 GMT -6
12z gfs is pretty interesting by next weekend. Big Kirksville snowstorm. Does look intriguing. "Big" snowstorm for Oct standards! Now time to watch it change and see another possible solution. It's nice to see digital snow on the models. That storm looks like it would be more favorable potentially for your neck of the woods instead of STL based on climatology being a week plus out.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 18, 2023 7:33:09 GMT -6
Yeah it really looks like our first of winter is coming sometime after the 25th of Oct into Halloween. Whatever does happen will help us start to understand the puzzle to this coming winter's theme!
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 13, 2023 14:28:35 GMT -6
That magical 540 dm thickness line is getting closer and closer to the STL area each day that goes by with each model run! Almost time to forecast digital snow! ❄️😂😊
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 13, 2023 12:59:18 GMT -6
Is there any possibility of more rain developing towards this evening and tonight? I got another rock. Not even enough to make the pavement fully wet. WTH Yes this late afternoon/evening...pulses of rain cells along the katafront (before the cold air advection) comes knocking on our doorstep! Yes I'm that weirdo who gets excited about the first true fall mid latitude cyclone cold air advection event! 😊
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 10, 2023 20:44:15 GMT -6
37* this morning in Northern Wildwood...technically the first frost of the season!
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 4, 2023 12:54:24 GMT -6
I started to burn a pile of leaves with my grandson while he was jumping in it and I'm taking it away from the side and taking them into the ditch. Then we started to feel a few raindrops then a few more next thing I know I look over at the concrete driveway and it's getting damp but the fire is still going pretty good, then it started raining a little harder and put the fire out. I should have started it maybe 15-20 minutes sooner than I did and I would have had it all burned. This was still a little sketchy even with the hose next to me and I knew rain was on our doorstep cuz it's still pretty dry. Wow yeah sounds like you were caught off guard too with the rain! I didn't think the stuff on the radar was going to make it to the ground! Looks like tomorrow is going to be wet for sure till the afternoon. Then strong NW winds (strong cold air advection) something we haven't seen in a awhile it seems!
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 4, 2023 11:35:29 GMT -6
So much for the rain drying up and not coming till overnight. We need it, but the theme this late summer / fall is for it to dry up over the metro haha! That's what I thought it would do. This is rare. I just went out to start my bike ride, but had to eventually come back. Sprinkles turned into rain. Always a disappointment to cut your ride short (road cyclist talk). Thought I could sneak in a outdoor lunch ride before the rain. Is the rain in Union now going to be steady or light rain in STL? 😊
Edit! Happy to see it was steady rain as I am forced to ride on my inside trainer on Zwift!
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Post by ndolan387 on Sept 26, 2023 20:52:14 GMT -6
I had some major weather anomaly happen at my house today!😅 This extremely moist substance fell from the sky for a short period of time it almost looked like the stuff we used to get... I think they called it rain 🌧️ Then I actually heard some loud noise up in the sky not sure what it was, but I've heard stories about this stuff called thunder! It reminds me of those stories... I got a rock Cell headed for Brighton! You may get a legit amount of rain for once Brtn! 😊
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