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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 8:59:22 GMT -6
Some of these models show the SLP tracking left of the 500mb track...that's a bit hard to believe. Hard to believe a lot of scenarios that have come through the MW this winter! Unfortunately for us, they come to fruition when we don't want them to. If this storm brings a rainy deformation, we're 100% cursed.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 8:50:35 GMT -6
Some of these models show the SLP tracking left of the 500mb track...that's a bit hard to believe.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 8:15:32 GMT -6
00z GEPS mean looks great with a 990mb low tracking right across the benchmark and the 0* line through the Metro by 12z Fri. That certainly favors the heavy snow band setting up through the Metro. The EEPS and GEFS mean is slightly NW of that but still a favorable track for the Metro and N/W counties.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 7:23:47 GMT -6
Looks like last night's model runs pretty well stayed the course with the GFS remaining on the amped/NW side of the envelope and the GEM on the sheared/SE side with the EC right in the middle. The GEFS looks to have shifted maybe 50mi N/NW with the SLP tracking across the bootheel and up the Ohio River but the 850mb low track is still pretty ideal. Models are suggesting a changeover around daybreak in the Metro with the heavy band setting up roughly along/NW of 44 into IL. Several inches of snow could fall under that band, but the timing of changeover is crucial. The GFS has a much more marginal temp profile because of how amped it is and the strong TROWAL it shows. The EC is colder overall, which is a good sign as it typically handles thermo profile a bit better.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 27, 2023 6:31:47 GMT -6
Breezy
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2023 20:35:57 GMT -6
I will say this, I don't think I'm quite as skeptical of the marginal temps (and they are very marginal if we're being honest with ourselves) as I should be. There just doesn't seem to be a good connection with the cold air to the north. But I suspect a system that strong, if it turns out that way, is going to be very effective at dynamic cooling. I mean the surface low, as modeled, is deepening at a rate of almost 1mb/hr as it approaches...not surprising given the incredible lift in the atmosphere between a coupled 150+kt upstream jet and a 200+kt downstream jet. Yeah, as it's modeled currently it's way more potent than the last storm that struggled. Cyclones of that strength pull winds in and coax the cold air closer to the center with time. We may loose a good chunk of the precip to liquid if that takes too long. But dynamic cooling and heavy snow rate should overwhelm the warm layer pretty efficiently I would think.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2023 20:26:02 GMT -6
The 210-220kt 250mb jet in the eastern Great Lakes region that the GFS is forecasting (see 18z hours 102-114) is top tier according to SPC sounding climatology. It may even be record breaking for some of those stations. The magnitude of jet energy across N America going into this week is astonishing.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2023 19:35:03 GMT -6
Being 5 days out, wherever models are showing the potential narrow heavy snow band now probably isn't where it'll end up. This is very true. That said, the main synoptic features are starting to come into much better focus and consistency with a consensus track that is very favorable for heavy snow in the Metro. You have to love how rock solid the GEFS has been...hopefully it's leading the pack.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2023 18:45:42 GMT -6
I think 3-6" is a good start for expectations of the high end at this point. That could still go way up or way down though.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2023 17:50:43 GMT -6
We need to maintain the flat height field out front of this, and it looks like the developing -NAO block is helping out with the vortex lobe up near James Bay pressing in as the storm ejects. That's a textbook setup for winter storms here, as it forces confluence aloft and surface ridging over the Lakes. But if the SE ridge flexes a bit more and the storm is deepening rapidly, it may trend further N with a warmer column.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2023 17:44:34 GMT -6
This thing is an absolute beauty to look at in the upper levels, BUT the near-surface temps are definitely marginal and one concern I have after looking at the runs from today is the strength of the TROWAL and overall intensity of the storm. If that pans out, it would likely be a cold or slushy rain until the mid-level front pushes through and cools the column. That would make the difference between a storm that drops double digits or one that drops a few inches on the backside like the last storm we had. A weaker storm and less intense TROWAL would probably be better for us. This is a much better organized and potent storm though, so the dynamical cooling and precip intensity should be more efficient at helping snow break through.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2023 11:08:13 GMT -6
Woah...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2023 10:49:04 GMT -6
The CONSISTENCY of the GEFS mean is almost unbelievable. It's had the same track pegged for days now.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2023 10:17:53 GMT -6
99 said we're getting a dusting maybe, yay!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2023 10:16:39 GMT -6
Cutting too far north is the other concern...the blocking ridge over the top isn't real strong so a rapidly deepening low would sneak further N/W than models depict. God knows these strong cyclones love to dump on COU to UIN. But luckily there's still plenty of guidance on the weaker/SE side of the envelope.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2023 10:14:26 GMT -6
Batten down the hatches. A wild ride is upon us with high winds overnight into the early morning hours along with rain and storms, although at this point the potential for storms looks a bit subdued courtesy of timing. Beyond that, nice week shaping up with temperatures in the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday, falling back just a bit on Thursday. ...and?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2023 9:16:30 GMT -6
Last night's UKMET looks phenomenal with a 985mb SLP passing the benchmark and a band of heavy snow setting up right through the region.
This potential is starting to gain a lot of traction...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2023 9:08:18 GMT -6
Starting to see a rough consensus developing that the phasing/neg tilt will happen soon enough for a favorable track of the 500mb low and other key GYB features next week. The GEM and EC have jumped aboard the more N/NW train of solutions last night, so that's giving a lot more credence to the GFS. The big question is whether the cold will become entrenched enough for snow. A storm of the magnitude that most models are showing should be able to pull winds in and drag the cold towards the center along with strong dynamical cooling. This looks like a heavy, wet snow maker to me.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 26, 2023 8:59:07 GMT -6
06z GFS goes full HAM!
Really trying to keep in mind that it's shown this outcome before and failed miserably, lol
Please make it happen...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 17:40:30 GMT -6
In other news, models are showing one of the jankiest setups for snow in NYC I think I've never seen Mon PM/Tues...will they get screwed or finally break their snow drought? I'm thinking they get hosed by the onshore flow/warm layer. Last check, they had only recorded 0.4" of snowfall for the entire season.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 17:31:17 GMT -6
At the risk of getting way the heck too far ahead of things, the 12z EPS shows wave after wave of overrunning precip the following week with building pressures across the N tier. March may be coming in like a lion!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 17:11:53 GMT -6
Wow, GFS with the double-barrel sub-990mb cyclone crossing MEM and tracking up the ORV...if it pulls this stunt again I'm writing my congressman.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 13:45:29 GMT -6
12z GEFS still pretty much right through the wheelhouse with the SLP/850/500 features...maybe even a tick NW of where you'd like it. Great spot for this range with about half the guidance further S/E.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 13:40:33 GMT -6
Nice to see the UKIE jump on board but the GEM/EC operationals are still solidly in the sheared/suppressed camp. Given how the EC has performed lately, I'd put more weight in the phased/NW solution of the GOOFUS/UK. The GFS was the first to jump north with the last big storm that hit MN IIRC, so that gives it some credence.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 9:28:29 GMT -6
The uber low-res JMA has a nice hole in the QPF field around STL...lock it in, lol!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 9:10:03 GMT -6
The GEFS actually tracks the mean 850mb low across the Metro along I70...a blend of the two paints a pretty picture. Yep. And the GEPS is right down the middle of the strike zone. A blend of the three paints a perfect picture. Let's hope the paint sticks. Very close to the benchmark for sure. Operational runs are likely too far suppressed considering how far N/NW their ensemble means are. Plus, there's not a lot to keep the storm from lifting...the block over the top isn't overly strong by that point and there's a SE ridge in place. I like where we sit currently. A bit quicker negative tilt/phase would put us solidly in the game.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 8:03:45 GMT -6
Check out the EPS. We now have a cohesive low at 850mb and its pretty close to the benchmark. I'm just sayin... The GEFS actually tracks the mean 850mb low across the Metro along I70...a blend of the two paints a pretty picture.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 25, 2023 7:11:38 GMT -6
Little bit of glaze here in Brighton this morning. Was expecting more sleet/snow than ZR...guess there was no snow growth in the column.
GEFS mean remains remarkably consistent with the track of the SLP through the benchmark next week...this latest run has it near 990mb as it lifts into the lower OHV.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2023 22:48:32 GMT -6
Yep, definitely signs that the Nina is on it's last leg. I was waiting to see a downturn in the SOI before I got too excited and there it is.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 24, 2023 22:42:19 GMT -6
The signals are starting to stack up for a colder, wintry pattern to develop into March. SOI took a big downturn And the MJO is forecast to emerge into the favorable quadrant with a strong signal for a cold pattern in the E US
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