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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 27, 2023 11:32:46 GMT -6
Got large flakes here at my house off of Old St. Louis Rd/Rt. 13 area 1 mile north of Belleville Crossing Shopping Center and the High School.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 26, 2023 12:48:45 GMT -6
Dave has unleashed the 'H' word for snowflake size Wednesday and possibly Thursday in his latest FB message/post.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 25, 2023 16:02:00 GMT -6
18Z GFS looks kinda of interesting!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 24, 2023 22:13:17 GMT -6
GFS starting to jump onboard pass 2 runs as well with a dusting to spots of an inch or so. ICON says it's to warm and has just mainly rain.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 24, 2023 22:08:00 GMT -6
A couple models like the RGEM/GEM showing some decent snowfall totals around the area with the stacked low pressure system. NAM was close to something sweet, but just a bit to far south and east.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 20, 2023 12:22:45 GMT -6
I think snowfall per year runs from July 1st until June 30th, then starts again with July 1st. At any rate while some snow is possible around or just after the New Year, I'm not hanging my hat on it. Between MLK and if we're really lucky St. Patricks Day is going to be our 'Winter' otherwise it's heat and drought well into next Autumn as La Nina looks to kick in nice and hard.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 20, 2023 10:30:44 GMT -6
Looks like it won't be until after New Years that we see snow, possibly MLK day period when the SSW finally starts affecting the troposphere and gets the cold air to plunge southward as the El Nino starts fading. Of course the MJO is not playing ball either near the neutral circle, so not much help there.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 17, 2023 7:50:58 GMT -6
Well it won't be white, but it does look wet on Christmas, so it's a muddy Christmas. Snowman will be so delighted... (sarcasm)
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 14, 2023 8:15:42 GMT -6
Keep the bean footage rolling through the winter... Jokes aside, looks like our weekend system might be interesting from a meteorological point of view. Looks like a solid phase with a subtropical storm from the gulf into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. Models have been edging it back a bit westward as well. So we might get rains to last into Sunday, especially on the Illinois side. Might get some decent rain from it. Like a half inch to an inch, perhaps more east and south of the Metro.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 3, 2023 18:08:58 GMT -6
18Z EURO has a line from Elsberry, MO to Scott, AFB as the heaviest axis of precip.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 3, 2023 17:49:50 GMT -6
Past 2 runs of the HRRR/RAP are shifting the heaviest axis farther north. Now now showing much for the immediate metro rain or otherwise.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 3, 2023 16:04:22 GMT -6
Always love these systems that come together right as they pass by. Sometimes can be the best surprises!... And disappointments I'm sure.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 3, 2023 16:01:58 GMT -6
RAP 21Z run ups the ante especially north of I-70/I-64. Showing over an inch of QPF and 10:1 Ratios of 6" lollipops in Madison County, IL towards Litchfield. Granted ratios will likely be closer to 6-7:1, so maybe more like a couple slushy inches, system even pivots a bit across the Bi-State, always a nice thing.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 3, 2023 15:11:54 GMT -6
I know this thing is really fighting some surface level warm air up to around 850MB, but if the QPF values are even close to what actually happens, its quite cold at the 700MB level and around freezing at the 850MB. If cloud tops get high enough it could pack some small hail or sleet with some large slushy snowflakes in the heavier returns, but it's going to be very hit and miss with lighter areas seeing mainly cold rain, but with heavy QPF values from the convective models, dynamic cooling along with very favorable time of day/night (after midnight, but before sunrise) could be enough to deliver the goods. I wouldn't be surprised if someone wakes up to a plastering 1-3" of 'stuff' on the ground tomorrow mainly on the grass and elevated surfaces like cars/yard furniture and roof tops, but roads remaining just wet or slightly slushy on the side streets. On that same token, most won't... Just a wait and see kind of thing. This system is compact, but quite potent, so I wouldn't discount it completely.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 3, 2023 15:05:48 GMT -6
Snow, but that won’t be happening. Was wondering. Thought I had missed something somewhere. RAP now says the same thing, in fact, RAP is the juiciest showing around an inch of QPF centered over southern Madison County along I-70.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 3, 2023 14:58:26 GMT -6
NAM shows thundershowers with perhaps sleet or small hail mixing in with it's 18Z run overnight tonight, regardless what happens, rain, sleet, hail, or snow this thing looks like it wants to dump a solid half inch to 3/4ths an inch of QPF between Columbia into the Metro, or roughly the I-70/I-64 corridor. However this heavy band of QPF looks only like 30-50 miles wide at most where it happens, so there's gonna be some haves and have nots. What's new around here... Nevertheless, this clipper looks like it's has some tricks up it's sleeve. Even the Clipper behind it on Monday into Tuesday is coming/tracking farther south. but regardless not much is to be expected out of that, however the northeastern Illinois counties of the viewing area could get sideswiped by it.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 1, 2023 15:09:01 GMT -6
18Z NAM comes farther north with Sunday Night's system and stronger. Paints 1-3" north and west of St. Louis.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 1, 2023 14:22:03 GMT -6
Models looking more amped up with our weekend clippers. First one on Saturday into Saturday night arrives with some decent rains especially along and north of I-70/I-64 and maybe even some snow as south as Quincy, IL back to Moberly, MO. Next system Sunday night into Monday looks more interesting to me with borderline temps and strong lift along with a favorable track for the upper level energy and surface low to bring a narrow but intense band of precip with it, which in the heavier regions might mix with some sloppy wet snow with even some brief pockets of heavier snow in the heaviest pockets. While not much if any will likely stick, it could be photogenic for some lucky few. Right now Columbia, MO to Washington, MO to Carbondale Illinois looks like the best likely area but the metro isn't out of the woods yet if it continues get stronger in the models. In fact this sucker even briefly closes off as it passes before opening back up as it crosses into the Ohio and Tennessee river valleys on Monday.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 30, 2023 11:33:06 GMT -6
12Z GFS brings us some snow in about 10-12 days. Might be something wintry about that time, but it looks brief and the pattern quite transitory, back and forth warm and cold shots, but nothing to extreme for the time of year.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 30, 2023 11:31:30 GMT -6
Rain's about to kick in across the metro in the next hour or so. Looks showery, so the big gully washer won't be till likely evening and overnight.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 30, 2023 8:30:56 GMT -6
December was always expected to be a craptastic month for Winter Lovers, so no surprise there. Those that were predicting some Winter action have generally focused towards the second half of the season, late January into March. So plenty of time for something to happen, but the Holidays don't look to be it. At any rate that's a classic Omega Block on 920's post if I ever saw on. Impressive seeing a ridge go from Mexico all the way to the North Pole. Biggest cold stays trapped in Russia and parts of Europe for awhile anyway.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 27, 2023 9:31:35 GMT -6
Storm system for Thursday Night into Friday is the perfect Memphis Low track which would of been golden for snow across the I-70 corridor and points south... To bad no cold air is present, so it's all rain.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 25, 2023 12:13:21 GMT -6
News article was published a few days ago how how more then 30% decrease of precipitation that is snow over the past 50 years. More like 50% by the looks of things. Probably 30% alone in the 20 years I've lived here. We could see snow disappear almost entirely from here and points south save for once in a blue moon event like every 2-5 years or longer.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 23, 2023 11:12:46 GMT -6
Models look warmer through the column. Looks like only the northern third of counties will see snow, or at least enough to stick on the grass. More of cold rain south of I-70 including much of the metro and some models are looking drier as well. Models flip flopping with how cold December will be or not. 12Z looks warmer where as it looked colder last night and yesterday. Looks like the dry trend continues however the next 2 weeks.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 20, 2023 15:42:46 GMT -6
Louisania on the other hand is dealing with twisters, or at least possible tornadoes. Gnarly cell north of Alexandria, LA
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 20, 2023 15:39:45 GMT -6
This rain event has been real underwhelming so far here in Waterloo....need more rain 🙏. Drought makes more drought...
The St. Louis split is real! Might be something this evening as the low pulls away but probably won't amount to much. To be honest models have picked up very well on the QPF min zone that we found ourselves in. Why I wasn't much excited about this. Sunday looks interesting, but only somewhat.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 20, 2023 10:23:39 GMT -6
Couple models trying to bring a disturbance back into the long range(Weekend after Thanksgiving) again. Has vibes of Last November's Surprise snowfall event. Not saying that's how it will play out, but decent energy and borderline temps could give someone on the southeastern half of the area a surprise on Saturday night/Sunday Morning next weekend.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 18, 2023 7:24:17 GMT -6
Fits the going forecast that if 'winter' shows up it'll be in the latter half of the season. A flip to La Nina in the Spring not good for drought relief prospects however. Signs the next La Nina could be strong as well by mid/late Summer 2024. More middle-east like heat anyone?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 18, 2023 7:22:08 GMT -6
December looking dry and warm again. All is right with the world!?!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 15, 2023 15:23:34 GMT -6
Cold Season grasses still a growing. This November has been nuts with all the warm. Still Looks like a pattern change is on the way though with near normal to even below normal for a change. Just a couple more days.
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