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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 10, 2024 8:53:01 GMT -6
Guess we can stop worrying about Friday and move on to Sunday as far as snow goes. This system is even warmer then the last. In short the cold air just came in too late to little. Sunday now our best bet otherwise maybe around the 19th-24th. Short of that the pattern starts to get crappy towards the End of January and we're waiting on mid February into March fighting a dissolving El Nino and strengthening sun angle/longer daylight so what falls won't really stick for long. That or we just keep on torching into next Summer.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 8, 2024 12:21:39 GMT -6
Lots of MPings for Rain and even regular snow and sleet down southeast of us as the moisture streams in. Might get a brief wintry spell before it goes all over to rain as the warmer air gets drawn in. Not Thrilled about Friday swinging north. Still like to think that it will correct itself back south a bit, but models are consistent with both today and Friday's systems being pretty much carbon copies of each other.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 6, 2024 10:47:25 GMT -6
12Z ICON is pretty close to what I think Friday could look like. Almost to the letter.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 6, 2024 10:45:06 GMT -6
gem still a bit southbut further north than previous on tuesday..way north and rain friday. Hshahaha Gem is off it's rocker for Friday. With the cold air mass coming it, I'd be worry about surpression then over shooting. GFS actually looks a bit more realistic and not just because it gives us the most snow, but seems to handle the polar air mass coming in. Truth is likely somewhere in the middle, which is why I'm personally more interested in the Friday system as that would put the I-44/I-70 corridor in the sweet spot if you took the difference between the 2, but Tuesday could still end with a 2-5" event for the metro area on the backside. Friday could be double digits but too far out to talk about numbers specifically. Just saying it has the potential, but we know how that goes...
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 6, 2024 10:41:42 GMT -6
This loaded gun pattern is probably the best I've seen since the famous 2013-2014 season. Looks like it keeps on giving into almost February. Sure there will be shifts in the models with individual systems, but overall you really can't ask for a better pattern. Weak/ening PV should keep us pretty good into March, but there will be a milder period at the end of January into mid February before possibly returning to a colder snowier pattern after President's Day into St. Patrick's Day in March. Should be a pretty quick flip to Spring with El Nino gone by then and La Nina pattern setting up by April if not May and it looks moderate to strong with a Modaki Look to it (coldest waters in the central Pacific as opposed to an east based one off of South America).
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 5, 2024 23:22:32 GMT -6
Yeah, still looks like 1-2" left to go before it winds down. Light snow/flurries keep wanna to backbuild southwest though, but regardless we should be wrapping it up for accumulations by around 1-1:30AM. So there we go I'm calling... 5" for Belleville when it's all said and done at least briefly before compaction and melting start settling in.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 5, 2024 22:40:12 GMT -6
Radar just keeps getting better and better for the immediate metro the next 2 to 3 hours with moderate to heavy snow with large flakes. I'm upping this up to a 3-4" event. Part of me wants to go 5" for some lucky dog, but compaction and marginal temps prevent me going that high. Nevertheless this is the heaviest snow for some since 11/11/2022, and the first 'impactful' event of the season as far as roads despite the marginal temps and uncertain ice crystal availability. I'd retroactively call this a 'surprise' low-end advisory level event.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 5, 2024 22:33:54 GMT -6
GFS showing over 60" of snow throughout it's run north of St. Louis and it's not even done yet with an overrunning storm growing at the day 10 mark. That's a first even for model land!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 5, 2024 22:29:17 GMT -6
Hit 2" at my place and still coming. Everything is covered now except under the densest bushes and trees that still have any foliage. I think Belleville has a 33% of hitting 4", but really liking that 3" to 3.5" at least until compaction settles in. Have a feeling tomorrow that the grocery stores will be dead, at least in the morning. Sadly I don't go in until almost Noon, so it'll be picking up then for sure. Looks like I'll miss the bread, milk, butter, and eggs runs on Monday and Tuesday ahead of whatever that system brings.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 5, 2024 20:48:38 GMT -6
Getting under some 35dbz returns and it's pouring dwarf hamsters out there. Solid Moderate almost borderline heavy snow. Heaviest I've seen in a while.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 5, 2024 20:29:19 GMT -6
The fact that rain has largely stayed out of the mix and allowed better cooling has really help booster this thing, despite marginal temps at the surface.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 5, 2024 20:26:28 GMT -6
Everything is white over here with only shaded areas under pine trees or otherwise mostly sheltered still being exposed. Probably coming on an inch now on the grass. Mailbox looks like it's at about an inch of snow on top. Don't have any good flat surfaces, so no official measurements, just eyeballing it.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 5, 2024 20:23:40 GMT -6
I'm seeing some nice radar returns popping to the southwest and heading northeast. That's the next thrust and possibly heaviest part. Not much eastward progression yet with backbuilding to just east of Rolla. This thing is the work of an overachiever.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 5, 2024 20:03:00 GMT -6
Slush and light snow accumulation showing up on the streets and driveways. Still coming down at a moderate clip. Looks like another thrust of energy and moisture is heading our way, most models keep moderate snow with a couple pockets of heavy snow through about 12-1AM before gradually diminishing. 2-3" might be golden for the metro east into central Illinois by the time it all shuts down.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 5, 2024 19:35:48 GMT -6
Still ripping Hamsters and Quarters here. Looks like about a half inch already.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 5, 2024 19:11:28 GMT -6
Hamsters starting to fall @ West Belleville, IL
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 5, 2024 18:59:48 GMT -6
Moderate snow in West Belleville, IL. Looks like a solid dusting already on the ground. A couple tenths of an inch or so.
Radar looking sweet and building southbound, so seems like my original guesstimate of Park Hills, into the metro-east and Decatur, IL seems to be more or less holding true. Somone could walk away with 2-3 inches from this.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 5, 2024 17:00:21 GMT -6
Flurries in West Belleville, near the West High School.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 5, 2024 14:34:18 GMT -6
Park Hill, MO to Belleville, IL to Decatur, IL seems to be where models are honing in on the best chances of a sloppy 1-3" of snow by sunrise Monday and that's using the Kuchera and Snow Depth Change methods. 10:1 popping out nearly 5" for some, but ratios are closer to 7:1 for most of the event when snowfalls.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 5, 2024 8:39:16 GMT -6
Does seem like the models this morning do seem to want to jackpot the metro area tonight with a couple inches of snow, so a weaker more borderline scenario of 11/11/2022 is on the table, but anything over 2 inches is going to be hard to find. A inch or so on the grass, roof tops and cars isn't out of the question. If it does cool more quickly, or precip is heavier then maybe 3" in a spot or 2, but not the 4-8" we got back in November 2022. That was something special what was only supposed to be a dusting or less.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 28, 2023 8:42:59 GMT -6
Models seem to be waffling again with snow/rain chances tonight with some showing .2-.4" of QPF while others split the metro in the middle and produce next to nothing while areas to the east and west pick up on the moisture. Any clarity of what to expect or why that is, or is it just model 'noise'?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 27, 2023 14:44:26 GMT -6
Latest Point forecast from NWS shows 1-2" of snow tonight in Belleville, IL.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 27, 2023 14:33:33 GMT -6
Looking at the Short Range/Meso models it looks like the RAP is leading the pack with the pivot/stalling point along I-70 and about 15 miles south to 20-25 miles north of it. pretty much encompassing the entire metro area with precip lasting till almost sunrise or 11Z before diminishing, then the next batch kicking in in the late afternoon tomorrow into tomorrow night/Friday AM.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 27, 2023 14:23:56 GMT -6
Radar seems like this thing wants to overachieve a bit, as mentioned a bit earlier once the sun goes down. Temps are 34-36 throughout the drive from home to Swansea/Fairview Heights and back to west Belleville.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 27, 2023 14:22:16 GMT -6
Came back from an appt, have some very patchy light accumulation on the leaf filled areas of the lawn, nothing anywhere else.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 27, 2023 11:59:41 GMT -6
Radar still looking good out west, seems to be backbuilding especially along and north if I-70, southward to about the I-270/I-255 loop and north of that. South of that looks to be dry slotted later this afternoon.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 27, 2023 11:49:19 GMT -6
Back to mostly light snow with some rain. 'Standard' sized flakes.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 27, 2023 11:38:41 GMT -6
Now small 'slushy' flakes and mostly rain now. Pretty while it lasted.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 27, 2023 11:35:20 GMT -6
Flakes now down to about dime to penny sized, but more numerous still mixing with a bit of rain though. About a 50/50 mix.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 27, 2023 11:32:46 GMT -6
Got large flakes here at my house off of Old St. Louis Rd/Rt. 13 area 1 mile north of Belleville Crossing Shopping Center and the High School.
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