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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 21, 2022 12:15:19 GMT -6
12z euro is dreadful
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 21, 2022 11:38:25 GMT -6
The St. Louis metro area was under Wind Chill Warnings back on Jan. 29-30, 2019 for wind chills in the -20 to -30°F range. Lambert got down to -6°F as a low on the morning of the 30th with the high only being 8°F. Wasn't that the one that was super hyped up for quite a while, but really only ended up being about a day and a half of cold? I believe Lake Michigan looked like a cauldron during that too. Yes, January 30, 2019. Lake Michigan cauldron video from my old apartment: youtube.com/shorts/g5srMMA0-bw?feature=share
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 21, 2022 9:05:18 GMT -6
STL got upgraded to a winter storm warning before Chicago? What?! The storm is hitting STL sooner and the regional standards are different so not surprising. They are considering a WWA instead of a WSW here too.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 22:51:35 GMT -6
The 00z Ukmet is bad.
Very consistent model for this storm.
Hopefully, it is consistently wrong for this one.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 21:55:32 GMT -6
The 00z gfs is good.
More like that please.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 18:04:28 GMT -6
It has trended to be a lot less snow up here, but still 3-7 inches with 50 mph winds and temps below 0. Tons of blowing snow on Friday. I just can't believe you were locked in as the bullseye just 18 hours ago and it has drastically changed that much... Yeah, STL gets screwed a lot, but so do most other places. Still should be impressive, just not historic for up here.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 17:07:15 GMT -6
OK serious question for a young buck and his wife who plan to head from STL to Chicago tomorrow morning despite my warnings. I feel like the boat captain telling Clooney on the Andrea Gail that he is heading into the mouth of the monster. I feel confident that when he sees the storm Thursday he will have second thoughts correct? Maybe Friday will be drivable? It has trended to be a lot less snow up here, but still 3-7 inches with 50 mph winds and temps below 0. Tons of blowing snow on Friday.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 11:46:59 GMT -6
Man, there are some awfully bare looking GEFS members on the 12z run. We’re starting to get out of the ensembles window for usefulness, but still makes you pause when looking at it. Most of the ensemble members are much further northwest with the low which is interesting given all the other operational runs. Hard to put much weight in that unless the ggem and euro ensembles agree. Edit: looks like the cod meteorology 12z run is messed up and showing old data. Don’t know what the deal with that is, but explains what I’m seeing compared to the operational run. Please disregard.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 10:51:34 GMT -6
12z Ukmet is still being really stingy.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 9:17:08 GMT -6
12z Icon is good for 2-5 inches.
Looks like the nam’s failure to really generate a southern low is an outlier.
Hardly surprising that it is struggling.
Rgem/ggem currently get the award for consistency, but 48 hours remain…
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 9:14:48 GMT -6
Curious where you are getting your sref numbers. The sref plumes I’m seeing are lower than what you are seeing. Are you just applying a personal ratio to the QPF? For which area? For 9z Total Snow I see 5 members with 6" or higher for STL and 7 members at 5.6" or higher for BLV. Mean just over 3" I can’t read lol. I read the number of members above 6 inches as the mean. My bad, carry on.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 9:09:02 GMT -6
Wind chills on the rgem are around -30 F Friday morning.
Definitely hope there are social supports in place because that is just ridiculously cold to be outside in.
Yikes
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 8:57:05 GMT -6
RGEM is going to come in solid again. It's my pick to click. Curious where you are getting your sref numbers. The sref plumes I’m seeing are lower than what you are seeing. Are you just applying a personal ratio to the QPF?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 8:51:48 GMT -6
Nam and FV3 are pretty putrid regionally. That giant snow maker for the Great Lakes looks dead. Got sucked in again, damn. I wouldn't be bailing with one run of the NAM, lol Not bailing, just acknowledging the trends since 18z yesterday for my region. Resetting my expectations from potentially 12+ to the same 2-5 for STL. No bigee. Trading off snow for even more ridiculous cold it appears.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 8:43:56 GMT -6
Nam and FV3 are pretty putrid regionally.
That giant snow maker for the Great Lakes looks dead.
Got sucked in again, damn.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 20, 2022 7:35:41 GMT -6
Significant delay in bombogenesis on all models has a large impact on temperatures. With the low making it further east, the core of the cold penetrates into the area. The euro is around -10 F Friday morning.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 22:51:03 GMT -6
00z Ukmet is east as well.
Looks like Indiana might be the place to be unless we see quicker strengthening in future runs.
So it goes. Hard to stay in the bullseye for 3-4 days.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 21:31:37 GMT -6
00z Icon is solid. Definitely a shift east. ICON is frozen on hour 63 for me on Tidbits lol Yes, that happens a lot. Hate to give away my secret, but weather.us is way faster for the Icon.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 21:27:27 GMT -6
00z Icon is solid.
Definitely a shift east.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 21:13:48 GMT -6
RGEM rock solid, looks 4-6” through the area meh..with 10-1 ratios it's half that You two have switched roles lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 20:55:31 GMT -6
It’s really not an organized low just a glorified post frontal 4-6 hours of snow, definitely not a good outcome for snow lovers It’s not transferring the energy to the southern low soon enough. The northern wave is too dominant at first messing the whole thing up.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 20:48:34 GMT -6
I know, out of it's range, but I'm not 'impressed' the the 0z Nam. 500 and 850 lows way north from my view. The 00z nam would be awful lol. Thankfully, it is way outside its reliability window.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 19:57:28 GMT -6
21z sref creeping the snow totals up for STL.
The mean is now up to 3 inches with some big members in there.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 19:24:52 GMT -6
Chicago NWS disco mentions possible 1-2’ totals in banding and winds gusting over 55mph. Not really looking forward to working on my holidays with this one. Would really like to spectate from my couch. WSC, we’re heading down to STL for New Years as well. Sounds like the best bet. Stay safe out there! You weren’t here for the GHD storm, right? Sounds like that is the benchmark unless you want to go way back to the 70s.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 16:14:48 GMT -6
WSC, are you driving or flying from Chicago to STL Looking like Chicago might be shut down for a couple of days Supposed to be driving… It’ll be interesting to see how things are Saturday, but not going to risk anything with the baby. Next week looks nice so could just come back for NYE
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 16:09:42 GMT -6
18z gfs is solid for 2-5 inches as well.
Nice. Things are coming together.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 15:53:49 GMT -6
How often do we get a 72 hour lead time WSW?
Has to be pretty rare.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 15:39:08 GMT -6
I was just reading the Chicago area AFD and they are already talking about this one potentially surpassing the infamous 2011 Groundhog Day blizzard The top end potential is actually quite life threatening up here. Definitely scary when you have a 4 month old compared to the shear excitement I used to feel.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 15:16:38 GMT -6
18z Icon is also very nice.
Would be more like 3-6 inches with the Illinois side favored for the highest accumulation (potentially 6+) .
Pretty nice runs and consistency developing.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 15:11:56 GMT -6
18z rgem is nice for the metro.
General 2-5 inches continues to look good.
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