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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 13:24:06 GMT -6
Most signs point to a mild pattern heading into the New Year as the Polar Vortex strengthens and returns to the Pole. Not sure mild is a good way to describe it. Definitely not a blowtorch but also not grueling dangerous cold. I’m actually seeing a “normal” weather pattern developing. Temps look to hover around seasonal norms with ebbs and flows each way. I also wonder if the cold will depart as quickly as modeled, given the teleconnections and blocking. Time will tell. Siberia is getting warm. Polar vortex is strengthening after this event. That is a setup for a mild pattern. These stretched PV events are easier to repeat than a full split though, so could be a temporary moderation. Hard not to have a mild pattern after it gets this cold, especially when your source region (Siberia) gets very warm.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 12:27:03 GMT -6
Does Euro show heavy snow still west and north of us Area wide 2-5 inches, blizzard conditions, temps around -10 F, and WC of -30 F. Snow increases as you move northeast through Illinois.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 11:18:01 GMT -6
We have family coming to town the middle of next week. I know there was mention of some snow on the 26th but is there the potential for anything beyond that? Most signs point to a mild pattern heading into the New Year as the Polar Vortex strengthens and returns to the Pole.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 10:32:49 GMT -6
GEFS with a notable shift east with the surface low Thursday afternoon Individual ensembles are kind of bad though. Not my favorite there
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 10:27:21 GMT -6
Both the gfs and ggem show more energy diving down on the 26th that could add some light snow as well before we rapidly warm up.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 10:11:10 GMT -6
12z ggem is a real solid hit.
A touch southeast of the Icon and gfs increasing snow totals for the metro.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 10:06:31 GMT -6
Depending on snow depth, Friday has a solid chance of staying below 0 F all day, especially away from the city.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 9:55:55 GMT -6
12z gfs looks like it will nudge east from its last 2 runs.
Should be more in line with other models.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 9:50:54 GMT -6
First sref plume runs in range of at least part of the storm.
Mean is just below 2 inches at STL, but with at least a couple hours more snow to fall.
So, big picture I am conceptualizing 2-5 from STL north and occasional blizzard conditions based on current trends.
Subtle changes in track will modulate if these numbers rise sharply or if we need to focus on the low end.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 9:23:58 GMT -6
12z Icon looks a lot like the rgem. It is also a bit northwest of its 6z run. Clear trend emerging. If not for the ridiculous GFS runs yesterday, this mornings runs would have everyone really excited. That is legit wrap around snow with temps in the single digits. Full on Blizzard conditions for 6 hours. No doubt, Icon drops several inches, creates blizzard conditions, has temps at -12 F Friday morning, and keeps temps below 0 all day. That is about as extreme as it gets in STL.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 9:18:06 GMT -6
12z Icon looks a lot like the rgem.
It is also a bit northwest of its 6z run.
Clear trend emerging.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 9:13:41 GMT -6
RGEM goes Kaboom Canada has held pretty steady. The 12z rgem is definitely northwest of its 6z run and the 00z ggem. So, definitely a trend there. So, the huge shift northwest on the gfs is likely overdone, but the idea of a northwest adjustment from yesterday seems to be right.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 9:10:12 GMT -6
12z rgem is good for several inches of snow, strong winds, and temps crashing below zero.
A hair northwest of where we want the low, but obviously still yields quite the storm.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 8:56:24 GMT -6
It would be crazy if the Ukie was right all along, besides one good run it’s been a consistent cutter for days . It is the 2nd best weather model in the world, so wouldn’t be that shocking.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 8:55:02 GMT -6
The 12z nam had a 1071 mb high in Montana at hour 72 lol.
That is absurd to see modeled outside of the fantasy land timeframes.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 8:45:47 GMT -6
I would be more concerned if the nam at 84 hours showed our dream scenario.
It’s like the gfs at hour 272.
And it still shows a high impact event with a couple inches of snow.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2022 5:40:36 GMT -6
6z Icon hammers the area with significant snow and blizzard conditions.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 22:54:03 GMT -6
Ukmet just refuses to join the party. It wouldn’t be as fun if every model showed a perfect outcome for 20 straight runs though, would it?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 22:52:24 GMT -6
To me it appears the GFS is struggling the most with this storm - So we can take that with a grain of salt? - Am I wrong? You should use caution throwing out data you don’t like. But yes, it has waffled from a coastal storm to the most extreme cutter. So, it deserves some extra scrutiny.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 22:43:43 GMT -6
I will say the max band for the gfs ensemble mean is now over 12 inches which speaks to the ridiculousness of this storm.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 22:31:11 GMT -6
Notable shift west (actually very sizable) on the 00z gfs ensembles.
That makes it a little more real, but still sitting in a great spot.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 22:10:47 GMT -6
00z ggem will not cut too far northwest.
Deep breaths everyone. It looks solid.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 22:09:36 GMT -6
It would not surprise me to be too far west for the eastern cwa, but too far west for the metro and western cwa as well ? Geez...lol. If so, good call on that possibility wsc. There were gfs ensemble members showing this exact outcome. It’s in the envelope of possibilities, but it’ll be more important to see how much if any shift occurs with the 00z gfs ensembles. Anytime you have bombogenesis, you can have sharp northwest shifts.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 21:59:51 GMT -6
Lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 21:29:06 GMT -6
00z Icon has the most amazing temp gradient I’ve ever seen.
Very impressive run for STL.
Actually, a bit too far west for me lol.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 19:28:40 GMT -6
Snow, I was wondering that, what do you look at it on? Is it similar position to gfs or not that much digging out west If you sign up on Pivotal you can get a 7 day free trial. $9.99 per month after. Tropical Tidbits has it with limited features for free as well.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 16:44:15 GMT -6
18z gfs ensembles are loaded.
And yes, it is possible for this to cut too far northwest still as evidenced by a couple of the over-amped ensemble members.
Great run there. Probably should be saved somewhere to look back on.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 16:06:25 GMT -6
I approve of that run
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 15:30:59 GMT -6
Starting to see other regional NWS offices use the “B” word.
I can’t remember if this was just a rumor or if there was validity to it, but I seem to recall someone saying the NWS STL would be extremely unlikely to ever issue a blizzard warning following the GHD storm.
Not that it matters what terminology is actually used for actual impacts.
Excited to get in range tonight for the short range models.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2022 15:27:09 GMT -6
18z Icon is solid for snow and extreme for cold.
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