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Post by mchafin on Jan 30, 2022 11:57:17 GMT -6
Hey Chris! What’s your number and then along with it, your standard deviation for Lambert?
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Post by mchafin on Jan 30, 2022 11:40:26 GMT -6
It’ll be interesting, after all is said and done, how closely each modeled mean compares to actuality.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 30, 2022 10:03:51 GMT -6
As Chris has said a number of times when the models show excessively high numbers the initial forecast shouldn't be issued containing the “off the chart“ numbers. Even if the confidence is high. So don't be surprised when the NWS comes out with a forecast of 4 to 6 inches. They’ve already tossed some numbers out in the forecast grids for the initial part of the starm.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 30, 2022 8:25:07 GMT -6
NWS posted on Facebook and then replied to a comment … “Hi Kristin, we're fairly confident we'll see over 6" of snow across most of the area, but we're going to continue to refine the forecast over the next few days.“ I figure to make that comment publicly, they must have pretty significant confidence in that number They mentioned that in their morning forecast discussion: “While its still a tad early to start putting numbers out, the probabilistic guidance from the NBM and post-processed GEFS and EPS indicates a high probability of > 6 inches of snow over a large NE-SW oriented area that includes St. Louis, with good potential for accumulating sleet and ice over southern sections of the CWA where the elevated warm layer is slower to erode.”
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Post by mchafin on Jan 29, 2022 10:41:31 GMT -6
I am going to get excited once i see snowman is excited about storm! I think you’ll be waiting till Wednesday.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 28, 2022 11:03:58 GMT -6
Where can one find the precip maps for UKMET?
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Post by mchafin on Jan 27, 2022 14:50:29 GMT -6
LSX created a weather story highlighting a northern and southern track option. Covering their bases. No no no no northern track please.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 24, 2022 13:56:33 GMT -6
Thanks, WSC. My Golden loves snow - the last little bit we saw had him coaxing us to come out to play in it.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 24, 2022 11:26:39 GMT -6
Had about 4 inches with clipper #1 Saturday night and look to have about 2 more inches so far with clipper #2 this morning with light snow still coming down. Ratios were really kind to me (20:1 type stuff). It finally looks like winter up here, so hopefully we all get in on it soon Gonna show any pics of your winter wonderland so we can all enjoy?
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Post by mchafin on Jan 20, 2022 12:54:58 GMT -6
If there is not any snow the cold can get lost lol 100% agree
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Post by mchafin on Jan 18, 2022 23:00:43 GMT -6
Has anyone checked out the giant ring around the moon tonight? It’s yuuuugge.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 15, 2022 12:46:56 GMT -6
I taught the kids how to push it. Not loft it. With 3/4" of slush at the bottom, even pushing it was a chore. If there was a kid willing to shovel my drive, I'd make it worth their while. I guess shoveling for money isn't a thing with the youths anymore. My boys wanted to go shovel driveways for money. I advised that it wasn’t a good idea this time - the snow was barely covering anything and melting rapidly. They could make bank in this neighborhood - provided neighbors aren’t like me and don’t carry cash.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 15, 2022 12:22:42 GMT -6
For the older members of the board (age-wise)...be careful shoveling this stuff even if you only got a couple of inches. This is the heaviest cement mixer stuff I've come across in a long time. I taught the kids how to push it. Not loft it.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 15, 2022 11:43:52 GMT -6
Here's a few pics from the I'm guessing about 2 inches. Quitcherbitchin’ I had no idea that was one word! I’m adding that to my lexicon.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 15, 2022 9:56:09 GMT -6
Look at the bright side--we've doubled our yearly snowfall amount. We're up to two traces! Or maybe a trace plus a dusting, whatever that is! We had our first 1” —> so we’ll start seeing more and more chances right?
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Post by mchafin on Jan 15, 2022 9:22:20 GMT -6
Well we had plans to sled. I’d guess there’s enough out there for a single run before we hit grass. When’s the next disappointment?
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Post by mchafin on Jan 15, 2022 0:25:26 GMT -6
Radar showing snow line collapsing SW Which radar you using? Mode?
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Post by mchafin on Jan 14, 2022 23:27:55 GMT -6
Flakeage increasing here in Crestwood Same here in Sunset Hills
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Post by mchafin on Jan 14, 2022 22:36:49 GMT -6
The 5400 line blasted thru. I suspect the 2840 is the dividing line?
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Post by mchafin on Jan 14, 2022 21:47:56 GMT -6
Coz - I drove up Gravois by Grant’s Farm - thought I saw some splatters on the windshield. Anything coming down by you? Also - when do you think transition to snow will occur in our general vicinity?
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Post by mchafin on Jan 14, 2022 20:20:37 GMT -6
Is there a site that tracks the critical thickness? 5400 line correct?
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Post by mchafin on Jan 14, 2022 20:08:59 GMT -6
Is there a site that tracks the critical thickness?
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Post by mchafin on Jan 14, 2022 19:21:50 GMT -6
You get access to that with premium? I’m pretty sure it’s free on Pivotal. Under the forecast tab look under NWS Forecast and it’s the snowfall maps Whoa! Mind blown!
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Post by mchafin on Jan 14, 2022 19:12:27 GMT -6
Here’s the updated NDFD which the NWS uses as the official forecast You get access to that with premium?
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Post by mchafin on Jan 14, 2022 18:38:57 GMT -6
Seeing a report of flakes in Jerseyville. Getting closer Edit: Now Alton. Radar looks phenomenal. NWS upped totals to 4-8" IMBY...surprised they didn't go with a warning. Anything frozen coming down?
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Post by mchafin on Jan 14, 2022 18:38:03 GMT -6
Seeing small flakes here. Not many, but it's a start Confirmed or is it mist?
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Post by mchafin on Jan 14, 2022 18:36:44 GMT -6
Seeing a report of flakes in Jerseyville. Getting closer Edit: Now Alton. From mPing?
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Post by mchafin on Jan 14, 2022 17:41:32 GMT -6
For STL, NWS new graphic says 2-4, however zone forecast is still 3-5. Weird That’s because they just updated the zone forecast at 5:22pm Still same numbers as the ~14:00. Doesn’t matter. It is what it is
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Post by mchafin on Jan 14, 2022 17:39:57 GMT -6
For STL, NWS new graphic says 2-4, however zone forecast is still 3-5. Weird It has to do with how the forecast grids get turned into a text forecast. Gracias. I was expecting the graphic to be updated with the 16:00 package. It looks like it was done later (after 16:00 as opposed to around 14:00 when the afternoon zone forecast was produced).
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Post by mchafin on Jan 14, 2022 17:26:16 GMT -6
For STL, NWS new graphic says 2-4, however zone forecast is still 3-5. Weird
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