|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 25, 2020 10:04:36 GMT -6
Cool eddy seems to be doing at least a little bit of slowing atm.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 24, 2020 19:05:24 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 23, 2020 12:47:58 GMT -6
that's a hell of an active pattern on the back end of the GFS.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 23, 2020 0:39:30 GMT -6
00z Ukie slams Laura into Houston as a major hurricane EURO playing ball in the same area |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 22, 2020 22:51:30 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 22, 2020 20:37:12 GMT -6
Seems like the globals/CFS agree on some semblance of a longwave trough to break up the ridge around the first week of September. GFS/Euro hinting at a good shot for some seasonally chilly temp front potential.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 22, 2020 17:12:40 GMT -6
I believe they simply combine the names. So if Laura is dominant and absorbs Marco, they become Lamarca. This is the ideal outcome for a certain Proseco brand. Was referring more like weather effect wise. typically one just dies and the other lives. |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 22, 2020 13:33:24 GMT -6
Brian Brettschneider @climatologist49 · 16h The 06 UTC GFS shows that TS #Laura and TS #Marco are unlikely to generate any snow in the next 16 days. Image This might be the only thing we know for sure lol I remember when remnants of Dorian produced snow in Newfoundland last year. Nuts. |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 22, 2020 13:16:15 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 22, 2020 11:21:04 GMT -6
I mean, let's say that SE trough doesn't rip the storm apart & Marco goes captain insane-o over the gulf, does the disturbance of that ocean water/upwelling make a difference in Laura's eventual evolution over that area? Does it take multiple strong systems for that type of thing to be non-neglible?
This forecast is a GD nightmare.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 22, 2020 5:33:02 GMT -6
06z guidance is suggesting a track even further s and to the w
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 22, 2020 5:32:19 GMT -6
I'm not the most tropical savvy weather nerd out there, just wondering how reliable is the HWRF? It keeps turning Laura into a monster before striking the US  I'll never doubt an organized area of vorticity in a warm gulf after michael. |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 21, 2020 21:32:47 GMT -6
Past Cuba, Laura looks to take a nearly identical path to Katrina (when she made it east of FL)... Definitely enough turf to strengthen quickly.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 21, 2020 20:29:20 GMT -6
It looks like TD14's pressure may be dropping some now. BTW...this is the wave the GFS has been tracking for days now and which had originally been advertising development this weekend that Luke mentioned way back on Aug. 5th. sometimes you close your eyes and the dart hits the board. |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 21, 2020 19:35:01 GMT -6
I haven’t really ever compared the hurricane models to the globals. Is the euro still king even with hurricanes? Or could it be completely whiffing on this thing? The spread is pretty big... like borderline Category 5 hurricane vs. tropical storm lol Models are still struggling with these two storms but the EURO in particular has been playing catch up...it's not done very well with the large scale pattern lately. 18z nam suggests a similar development scheme a la the GFS |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 21, 2020 11:52:30 GMT -6
It's way out there but the 12Z GFS has Laura struggling until it reaches the coast where it does strengthen some and then sweeps it into Missouri. Obviously with any GOM storm there is a chance we'll see the remnants. 12z HWRF still is spinning up a major hurricane. In fact, at face value, it looks like a strong category 4 Definitely an outlier... NHC forecast certainly supports the mean. |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 20, 2020 15:44:48 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 20, 2020 12:43:04 GMT -6
UKMET even playing a bit of Fujiwhara along the gulf coast.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 20, 2020 10:11:32 GMT -6
and the HMON/HWRF... yikes.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 20, 2020 9:30:15 GMT -6
06z GFS hopping on board with what the GEM has been printing the past 36 hrs
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 19, 2020 22:44:44 GMT -6
Unreal. 14:05 and 16:15 are the some of the most remarkable severe SLW gusts I've ever seen on tape.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 18, 2020 14:44:45 GMT -6
Not surprised...that RIJ was unlike anything I've ever seen. What were the velocities in the RIJ? I've been meaning to go back and look at the radar just haven't had time. This was the closest thing I could find scanning FB i.imgur.com/aiQBLyY.jpg |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 18, 2020 10:35:59 GMT -6
Just thinking off the top of my head, I wonder if the NWS has considered implementing some kind of “extreme straight line wind warning” or “derecho warning”. I feel like a strongly worded severe thunderstorm warning doesn’t convey the threat to the public 90+ mph winds can bring. One of the warnings issued that day was specific to the Derecho, with wording. I cannot remember which office or if it was posted here. IMO an event like this is rare enough that you may end up confusing more people than you help. |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 18, 2020 10:26:24 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 17, 2020 20:35:47 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 12, 2020 9:55:53 GMT -6
Chris saying I-64 @ science center is shutdown, cars stuck apparently?
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 10, 2020 18:23:58 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 10, 2020 18:16:17 GMT -6
There was just a clap of thunder in Ballwin that might have shaken the house off the foundation. Holy crap! Yup. It was very close to my house! I havent heard a blast of thunder like that... maybe ever. I had that here. Except it was 3 strikes within 30 seconds. Very strange day. |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 10, 2020 15:10:59 GMT -6
skies darkening back up here, winds beginning to pick up too
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Aug 10, 2020 15:00:00 GMT -6
|
|
