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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 20, 2020 14:26:50 GMT -6
People are never going to respect minor snowfall events with 20/25:1 ratios.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 20, 2020 12:26:28 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 20, 2020 0:17:15 GMT -6
EURO continues to do the thing
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 19, 2020 22:39:18 GMT -6
GFS has a shallow subsidence inversion, even though the column 900mb and up is saturated. I wouldn't worry about it. Mesoscale stuff isn't meant to be analyzed through the GFS Thanks, I am watching this pretty close because I have to be in Chesterfield at 2pm tomorrow and probably wont get back home until 6-7pm. I'd just take it slow. Expect to need extra time. These systems are sneaky and the public typically doesn't give them enough respect.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 19, 2020 22:25:31 GMT -6
For the more experienced, how about a teaching moment here? On the GFS precip/surface MSLP it shows some light snow well west of STL at the 24hr panel then it disappears. At 24hr, there is no surface reflection of anything at that time. At 700mb it shows a closed circ. near Vandalia and a closed 850 circ. centered between Mexico and the MS River. Why is the model precip snow blob at Columbia-Jeff City to the west?? Seems off to me. GFS has a shallow subsidence inversion, even though the column 900mb and up is saturated. I wouldn't worry about it. Mesoscale stuff isn't meant to be analyzed through the GFS
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 19, 2020 21:07:10 GMT -6
Kinda feels like the nam is just throwing a wet noodle at us Wednesday night. Such a weird setup.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 19, 2020 19:44:39 GMT -6
Looks like the HRRR and the RAP are very similar to the NAM’s now with a band Of light snow working right down the river. Probably .25”-.50” with maybe an inch somewhere. Hopefully the NAM will continue its trends. These Quick clippers can be quite the little snow producers once they saturate. These powdery type snows can really cause traffic problems, they pack down quickly and really get slick. It also won't help that the snow will be falling when it's 19-22º... It's a good thing there's no schools in session tomorrow, coulda been messy.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 19, 2020 12:30:01 GMT -6
EURO looks good. Kind of reminds me of the November storm from 2018.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 19, 2020 11:06:46 GMT -6
Icon misses the phase
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 19, 2020 0:30:20 GMT -6
EURO is actually a dream storm.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 19, 2020 0:29:41 GMT -6
EURO cuts off and sits on top of us dumping cold core snows.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 18, 2020 22:20:14 GMT -6
GFS holds on to another soaker... interested to see what the Euro's got.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 18, 2020 16:35:31 GMT -6
It's too early to speculate too much but if these trends of above average precip in the Missouri and Upper/Middle Mississippi river basins continue we have to wonder if we are again getting preconditioned for river flooding this Spring. So far the CPC is nailing the 3 month outlook they had back in November...
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 18, 2020 10:59:22 GMT -6
Malfunction due to the ZR according to LSX.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 18, 2020 10:50:27 GMT -6
I'm not sure if the ASOS at COU is right but it says we got 4.54" of rain yesterday... Seems off.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 17, 2020 19:59:18 GMT -6
34º
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 17, 2020 15:02:36 GMT -6
How are things in central Mo unclesam? Saw a storm report of power poles down and lines sagging from ice Messy, but not impossible. Trees/power lines are sagging. We're about as close as you can get to a high-impact event. The warming saved us.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 17, 2020 14:26:34 GMT -6
Eyeballing what's probably a quarter inch of ice on vegetation. It's enough to highlight tree branches from several hundred feet away. Very lucky the surface low got as far north as it did. This could have been a a very high impact storm in central MO.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 17, 2020 11:35:14 GMT -6
Uncle Sam what is your temperature their in Columbia? 28º Been jumping between 28 and 29 between heavier precip.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 17, 2020 11:23:18 GMT -6
ain't nothin stoppin the WAM train
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 17, 2020 11:16:54 GMT -6
Power lines and tree limbs already starting to exhibit motion that their weight has started to increase
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 17, 2020 10:49:50 GMT -6
Enhanced snow accumulation along the nose of Minnesota due to a strong southeasterly fetch on the front side of the sfc low. Now that's cool i.imgur.com/kPSzJGM.png
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 17, 2020 10:23:55 GMT -6
Eek.. temperatures dropping with enhanced precip. This thing ain't over y'all.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 16, 2020 23:58:25 GMT -6
altho temps jump to ~30 during the heaviest across metro STL.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 16, 2020 23:55:35 GMT -6
EURO very icy.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 16, 2020 22:46:23 GMT -6
moderate IP has broken out in Neosho on the MO/OK border.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 16, 2020 19:52:53 GMT -6
Sitting at a balmy 24º
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 16, 2020 14:56:00 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 16, 2020 14:39:21 GMT -6
looks like 28 is all we're going to get to today. High/mid levels clouds have occluded the sun
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 16, 2020 14:36:16 GMT -6
Nothing relevant to report from the NWS Conference call, unfortunately I was only able to call in and was not able to view via webinar and see the latest graphics. Updates should be coming out around 3:30 - 4:00, sounds as if some expansion to advisory products will be occurring, but I cannot accurately report what those will be as I missed viewing the graphics. WWA** included stl county. they were going to attach an areal flood advisory as well.
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