blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Dec 18, 2022 23:24:31 GMT -6
My first instinct, without looking at any other model, is to do just this. The GFS significantly weakened the upper low over the Hudson Bay which allowed for the surface low to occlude so quickly. Likely this is an outlier. There is a chance it is on to something, but without more data, I dont believe that is the case. I need to witness a 2ft snowstorm in my life and I am definitely on the wishcasting bandwagon that this one will do the trick đ
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Dec 18, 2022 23:11:48 GMT -6
weather.cod.edu has a nice feature where you can look at any product (say the 250mb winds on the GFS) for a given time and then toggle between each run of the model for that time so you can see trends. The 00z GFS has the 250mb trough a smidge farther west and a smidge more negatively tilted... and then it makes the cyclone much stronger. Or atleast thats what it looks like at first appearances.
After much closer inspection, the trough is only marginally deeper at 250mb than the previous runs. However, it has several more closed isoheights so it appears much stronger. So what gives? Making North America as my domain instead of the CONUS I found that the upper low over the Hudson Bay is quite a bit weaker than previous runs. My guess is that the increased heights over the northern US and southern Canada allow the downstream ridge to amplify a bit which, with the already highly amplified pattern, causes the trough to cut off and for the ridge to fold over the developing closed low. With previous runs, the stronger Hudson Bay upper low slowed the trough from going as strongly negatively tilted, which kept the surface-850mb lows from occluding as quickly, which kept the low farther south and for it to have more time to mature.
tldr, the weaker the Hudson Bay low, the quicker this trough will become strongly negatively tilted, meaning the surface low will more quickly occlude and gain latitude.
tldr v2.0, what everyone else has been saying
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Feb 14, 2021 19:12:06 GMT -6
Yâall, we got 5â of snow in San Angelo, TX from this bad boy and temp is currently 8F. Yâall are in for a treat the next 24 hours. Enjoy it!
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Jan 12, 2021 20:08:43 GMT -6
Hi it's been a while since I've posted!!
Just adding a little insult to injury on the snow front- I am in San Angelo, Texas and we got 3.5" of snow on Sunday and there's still some on the ground even now. What a brutal winter for St. Louis :/
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Dec 16, 2019 10:52:33 GMT -6
SN+ and 1" in the last hour here in South County. The snow rate has definitely picked up in the last 15 minutes.
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Jul 17, 2019 13:34:07 GMT -6
If the dew point went over 98 degrees, would the human body still be able to cool itself with sweat? If you were coming from inside to outside, initially water would condense onto your body from the air as your skin temperature is cooler than the dew point (similar to how a glass of ice water condenses water on the outer part of the glass until all the ice melts and the glass warms up). However, as you stay out there longer, your body would probably warm above the dew point, which would quit the condensation process, and would make evaporation more likely. With your body temperature being so close to the dew point, evaporation would be quite slow, so there would not be much cooling of your body. Regardless, you would be sweating a ton without much if any cooling to show for it. Edit: Looks like I was beaten to the response!
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Jul 10, 2019 9:43:05 GMT -6
Also can we just talk about the 12z NAMNEST for this? It turns it into a borderline cat 5 hurricane still lurking in the gulf. IN 60 HOURS. If this thing can stay a little farther over the gulf and can organize its core by like tomorrow evening, this thing is going to explode. I mean it also drops its central pressure to 866mb lol. So obviously its not in the realm of possibilities, but I do think it shows the potential this storm has for rapid intensification if gets its act together. People in Louisiana and Texas better watch this very carefully.
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Jul 10, 2019 9:18:54 GMT -6
Also can we just talk about the 12z NAMNEST for this? It turns it into a borderline cat 5 hurricane still lurking in the gulf. IN 60 HOURS. If this thing can stay a little farther over the gulf and can organize its core by like tomorrow evening, this thing is going to explode.
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Jul 10, 2019 9:03:17 GMT -6
Im in KC this summer volunteering at the Aviation Weather Center (which has been an awesome experience so far), and that MCS passed over me as I was driving into work. The shelf cloud was awesome!
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Jan 13, 2019 10:09:51 GMT -6
Finished with 10.5" in South County. Still cant believe that I was under ~50dbz echos for a brief time while it was all snow yesterday
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Jan 12, 2019 6:15:13 GMT -6
Ive been clearing snow on one part of my car at synoptic times (noon, 6pm, midnight, 6am) and taking a measurement, and the grand total in the last 18 hours? 9.5" Only 1" since midnight Max snow depth is 9.25"
So 9.5" in South County. I only need 2.5" to break my personal record which was from March 2008
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Jan 12, 2019 0:25:12 GMT -6
8.75" at midnight. Not too shabby considering that came in about 11 hours
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Jan 11, 2019 23:19:10 GMT -6
8.5" in South County at 11pm. Just had a brief snow break but its picking back up again. It looks like Tesson Ferry at Susan Hills has been unsnarled- we'll see if its still like that in the morning though
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Jan 11, 2019 20:16:19 GMT -6
Tesson Ferry at Susan Hills is a disaster. Both ways are a complete standstill because cars cannot get up either hill.
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Jan 11, 2019 20:12:31 GMT -6
7.25" at 8pm. only .5" in last hour
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Jan 11, 2019 19:06:24 GMT -6
6.75" in South County. 1.25" in last hour. No sign of any compaction yet.
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Jan 11, 2019 18:45:39 GMT -6
Before you write this commute down as the worst ever, let's not forget the freezing drizzle in December 2016 where it took some at least 8 hours to get home (and I believe that is the one where some school kids were stranded overnight). I remember another storm about 5 years ago where snow started around 11am or noon and many businesses closed early. The highways were horrible then by 1-2pm that day and in many of the exact same spots they are right now (40 near Timberlake and 44 at the Antire hill). I am probably more surprised that I have not heard of any issues around 70 and the hill at Lake St Louis as that is the 3rd one that frequently runs into issues. No matter the forecast, this is what happens when precip falls at the same time everybody is on the road. It is unfortunate, but 99.9999% of the people will eventually get to their destination without any serious harm. I will never forget that December 2016 day. Took me 10 hours to get to Fenton from Columbia after my last final.
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Jan 11, 2019 18:16:19 GMT -6
5.5" in South County at 6pm. Snowfall rates have been 1-1.25"/hr since 2pm
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Jan 11, 2019 16:05:41 GMT -6
3" in South County near Tesson Ferry at 4pm. ~1" in last hour
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Jan 11, 2019 15:04:49 GMT -6
1.75" at 3pm near Tesson Ferry in south county. 1.25" since 2pm.
My car is a pretty good snowboard lol
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Nov 25, 2018 22:29:39 GMT -6
The Columbia airport reported winds of 25mph+ for five straight hours, but visibility was never reported below 1 mile, much less 1/4 mile. It just didnt snow hard enough for the blizzard to verify. I honestly don't know how much snow has fallen here because it has all blown around, but my guess is 2" or 3". We've had blowing snow, and my street is snow covered though. Its hard to believe this is the third storm that has more or less covered the grass, and it's still November.
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Nov 25, 2018 14:52:32 GMT -6
Just had a heavier batch of rain roll through and there was a little hail/sleet with it.
Also, NWS just issued a blizzard warning for Boone County with 2-5" forecast.
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Nov 25, 2018 12:52:55 GMT -6
Holy cow im stoked. This seems to be dropping a fair bit south of where it had been modeled and CoMo seems to be ready to have blizzard conditions starting within a couple hours. The HRRR has been showing 6" for several runs in a row. Hopefully this can wash some of the bad taste of groundhog day 2011 out of my mouth. Temp is 42 and dropping.
Needless to say, the meteorology group chat here at Mizzou is pretty excited for this storm
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Nov 25, 2018 9:00:58 GMT -6
The hrrr makes me excited. Please let the hrrr be correct.
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Nov 8, 2018 22:25:18 GMT -6
Didnât really get to measure here in Columbia, mo but seems like 1-1.5â. Maybe weâll get to 2â, but rates are decreasing and melting and compaction should do a number on what we currently have. Everything is white except the roads, and snow is just starting to stick in spots on that too. Itâs absolutely beautiful to watch.
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Aug 30, 2018 7:58:34 GMT -6
Hurricane Norman is going berserk. It had 85mph winds at the 8pm update last night. At the 5:30am update this morning, it had 145mph winds. Itâs winds increased by 60mph in 9.5 hours. Goodness.
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Apr 1, 2018 16:50:32 GMT -6
Finally started to see some steady snow in CoMo. There is a solid coating on the grass and even our concrete patio.
T:26.7
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Apr 1, 2018 15:23:00 GMT -6
Getting a quick hit of what I guess is technically sleet. When closely inspecting each pellet, you can see a crushed up snowflake with a thin layer of ice covering it, which is leading to some huge ice pellets.
T: 27.9 Td: 22.1
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on Apr 1, 2018 14:31:45 GMT -6
This is frustrating. Still have had absolutely nothing here in CoMo. The MZZU radar does show that the gap between the southern precip and the northern stuff is filling in, especially out by Sedalia. Hopefully thatll fill in and actually make it over here.
T: 28.4 Td: 20.1
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blizzard123
Wishcaster
South County home; Columbia, MO college
Posts: 117
Snowfall Events: 27.0"--2013/2014
<2"--2016/2017
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Post by blizzard123 on May 30, 2017 15:02:54 GMT -6
Hello All, I want to bring you up to date on what is happening in my life. I just finished my freshman year at Mizzou and am still pursuing my degree in Meteorology and will be minoring in math and possibly philosophy. I absolutely love Mizzou! It has been my dream to attend since I was a kid, and it is amazing that I have finally made it. I play the clarinet in Marching Mizzou and in Mini Mizzou (yes, I am extremely excited for basketball season next year!). In addition, I became very active at the St. Thomas More Newman Center on campus and I met so many people there who point me towards Christ. Over the past year I have invested a lot of time and energy into my education. Now I want to invest my life into helping others. This summer, I have a wonderful opportunity to spend almost two weeks in the Holy Land doing mission work with FOCUS (Fellowship of Catholic University Students). I need to raise $4,100.00 by July 1st, 2017. I would love it if you could visit my fundraising website www.focusonline.org/goto/tylerpeterson and read my story, and if you feel called to, donate (any financial gift given online is tax-deductible). Either way, please pray for me and the rest of the group going! Thank you for your consideration!
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