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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 2, 2018 10:39:13 GMT -6
Biggest concentration of storms tonight into tomorrow morning looks to be along and east of the Mississippi River into Illinois and Indiana with relatively little activity back into central and western Missouri. In fact RAP and NAM suggest some FF (flash flooding) potential along I-64 with the best odds of severe hail there as well. As for tomorrow I could see a very slight shift west of the threat area but that would only put us in the slight risk from marginal. The enhanced risk should still remain east and south of the area. Tomorrow also looks to be the warmest day we'll likely see for a couple weeks with temps likely approaching 70 especially if the front slows down. Doesn't look like we'll see anything above 60 for a couple weeks after tomorrow, possibly not until the last 7 to 10 days of the month. You just know we're gonna pay for this at some point...
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 2, 2018 10:49:01 GMT -6
Snow field easily visible on Satellite GOES-16 in northern Missouri and Illinois also looks like some sun for areas north of I-70 today after all. Metro might get a few peaks here soon before cloud field expands back northward.
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 2, 2018 10:52:09 GMT -6
Interesting snip from NWS Lincoln, IL. “With our fresh snow cover here in Lincoln, our low temperature this morning dropped to 1 degree below zero. This absolutely crushed the old record low of 20 degrees, set in 1961. It is also the first time we've fallen below zero in April! Other new record lows for today include 14 degrees at Peoria (old record was 16 in 1899), and 16 degrees at Springfield (old record was 21 in 1961). We're researching to see if the Lincoln temperature broke the state record low for April.” Interesting, I saw that they got down to at least 1F but didn't realize they had an intra-report low of -1F. That's at least 2 reporting sites below zero which certainly lends credence to the reports...not that I would really doubt the NWS office of course...but ya know sometimes sensors malfunction. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Apr 2, 2018 10:53:39 GMT -6
Biggest concentration of storms tonight into tomorrow morning looks to be along and east of the Mississippi River into Illinois and Indiana with relatively little activity back into central and western Missouri. In fact RAP and NAM suggest some FF (flash flooding) potential along I-64 with the best odds of severe hail there as well. As for tomorrow I could see a very slight shift west of the threat area but that would only put us in the slight risk from marginal. The enhanced risk should still remain east and south of the area. Tomorrow also looks to be the warmest day we'll likely see for a couple weeks with temps likely approaching 70 especially if the front slows down. Doesn't look like we'll see anything above 60 for a couple weeks after tomorrow, possibly not until the last 7 to 10 days of the month. You just know we're gonna pay for this at some point... Maybe we already did with the 80's in February! It's noon on April 2nd and there is sleet and snow on the ground, roofs, and vehicles. This is crazy. Gfs has a much more progressive look Friday but still swings a frontal band of snow through with frigid temps. Gem is a little more amped up. |
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Post by birddog on Apr 2, 2018 11:48:38 GMT -6
Watching Angela on 11, I guess the clearing line is somewhere between here and STL. Have had sunshine up to this point anyway. 38.5°. Snow has virtually disappeared, estimated 2" here yesterday.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 2, 2018 11:51:06 GMT -6
Biggest concentration of storms tonight into tomorrow morning looks to be along and east of the Mississippi River into Illinois and Indiana with relatively little activity back into central and western Missouri. In fact RAP and NAM suggest some FF (flash flooding) potential along I-64 with the best odds of severe hail there as well. As for tomorrow I could see a very slight shift west of the threat area but that would only put us in the slight risk from marginal. The enhanced risk should still remain east and south of the area. Tomorrow also looks to be the warmest day we'll likely see for a couple weeks with temps likely approaching 70 especially if the front slows down. Doesn't look like we'll see anything above 60 for a couple weeks after tomorrow, possibly not until the last 7 to 10 days of the month. You just know we're gonna pay for this at some point... Maybe we already did with the 80's in February! It's noon on April 2nd and there is sleet and snow on the ground, roofs, and vehicles. This is crazy. Gfs has a much more progressive look Friday but still swings a frontal band of snow through with frigid temps. Gem is a little more amped up. Had to double check and your right, it did on the 15th. Didn't feel that warm though and I still needed a hoodie though. Must be the weightloss as it just didn't feel that 'hot'. Summer's gonna be a chilly one then if that's true at least at a personal level. Also interesting to note that March 15th was also the warmest day for the month at around 70. So both Feb 15th and Mar 15th where warm days. Maybe a pattern? |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 2, 2018 11:52:23 GMT -6
Watching Angela on 11, I guess the clearing line is somewhere between here and STL. Have had sunshine up to this point anyway. 38.5°. Snow has virtually disappeared, estimated 2" here yesterday. Still waiting on the sunglasses weather here... Might not get it. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 2, 2018 12:03:36 GMT -6
Getting just a little hazy sun here. Sky is still 100% cloud cover as far as I can see. |
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Post by bororug on Apr 2, 2018 12:16:39 GMT -6
Still cloudy & 32 degrees. Steam has been coming off the lake in our subdivision all day. Pure winter day on April 2. Crazy.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Apr 2, 2018 12:27:09 GMT -6
A few changes to the SPC Outlook for today and tomorrow: www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/Discussion for Today: Have made several adjustments to the previous outlook based on 12z CAM and operational model guidance. The corridor of highest confidence in thunderstorm activity (along with isolated hail occurrences) will be from south-central MO late this afternoon into parts of southern IL/IN and northern KY tonight. Forecast soundings along this axis show ample elevated CAPE, steep lapse rates, and deep-layer shear for at least small hail production, and the potential for isolated severe hail in the strongest cells. Tommorrow looks like Slight boundaries very similar, Enhanced has been expanded and pulled slightly back to west into the bootheel. |
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Post by bdgwx on Apr 2, 2018 12:40:27 GMT -6
The frontogenesis band setup a bit further north than forecasted. Overall though I think yesterday's weather event behaved pretty well.  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 2, 2018 12:43:48 GMT -6
And my hazy sun is gone again.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Apr 2, 2018 13:29:08 GMT -6
Still have snow in my front yard. Usually melts right off the bat but today, no sun. I always like to see 2 reports as well for verification. Even storm reporting...one time i reported 1 inch hail. I was relieved to see that fish also reported 1 inch hail in that same storm a couple years ago. It is just a confidence booster. Some months later my neighbor put their house up for sale. The buyer asked them to replace their roof. My neighbor told me they had hail damage and was able to find a hail report in the storm reports to get a date of loss. He didnt know i was a registered storm spotter and still doesnt know that. Lol
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Post by birddog on Apr 2, 2018 14:21:21 GMT -6
Watching Angela on 11, I guess the clearing line is somewhere between here and STL. Have had sunshine up to this point anyway. 38.5°. Snow has virtually disappeared, estimated 2" here yesterday. Still waiting on the sunglasses weather here... Might not get it. Half an hour after my post .......clouds! 38.7° |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Apr 2, 2018 15:51:06 GMT -6
I'm hitting some showers in Coulterville in the sky to the West is darkening
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 2, 2018 15:57:08 GMT -6
Light dusting of new snow on my deck. Has accumulated in the last half hour
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 2, 2018 16:06:01 GMT -6
18z gfs looks good for Friday-Saturday.
Sweet.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Apr 2, 2018 16:09:10 GMT -6
Showers seem to be intensifying over here. ain't going to take much to get a hailer. that cell just north of Nashville looks like a candidate shortly. Looks like some stuff starting develop along I-44.
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Post by Steven Penrod- HLEW on Apr 2, 2018 17:19:10 GMT -6
Was surprised to hear the tornado siren test today with a chance of severe weather in the forecast.
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Post by nascarfan999 on Apr 2, 2018 17:42:11 GMT -6
The frontogenesis band setup a bit further north than forecasted. Overall though I think yesterday's weather event behaved pretty well. Bullseye in BRTN's backyard [x] Snow in Mad's backyard [x] Anti-bullseye in Union [x] Map looks legit to me. I did measure here this morning and had right at an inch. |
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Post by RyanD on Apr 2, 2018 18:18:00 GMT -6
Thunder ave lightning here. That was fast.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 2, 2018 18:18:34 GMT -6
Radar really popping just south and along I-64. Have a thunderstorm moving into my area or just to the south, hearing thunder now.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 2, 2018 18:21:17 GMT -6
looks like some pea-sized hail up to Lima bean size between Millstadt and Freeburg.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Apr 2, 2018 18:28:28 GMT -6
18z gem really hammers the area Friday evening as well.
Hopefully this trend continues with the 00z suite.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 2, 2018 18:31:47 GMT -6
I must now clean my drawers...
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 2, 2018 18:37:22 GMT -6
Had pea to marble size hail here
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Apr 2, 2018 18:43:47 GMT -6
Is this it for the night for storms? Nothing further north?
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 2, 2018 18:49:14 GMT -6
I should have put my rain gauge back out. This rain is heavy.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 2, 2018 18:49:58 GMT -6
Pea size hail again.
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Post by bear1 on Apr 2, 2018 19:29:52 GMT -6
After a cold/damp/misty & nasty 34° day,...temp has finally started rising... up to 36° now. AND... froggey as all get out!
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