|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 19, 2018 13:01:46 GMT -6
Severe t-storm warning for Warren, Lincoln and St. Charles Counties. Potential for wine and hail. Healthy bow echo showing on radar. Cells fired and came together pretty quickly
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on May 19, 2018 13:02:07 GMT -6
Many of the short term models are also bringing what forms in northern Oklahoma today through here later this evening
|
|
Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
|
Post by Jeke on May 19, 2018 13:11:04 GMT -6
Severe t-storm warning for Warren, Lincoln and St. Charles Counties. Potential for wine and hail. Healthy bow echo showing on radar. Cells fired and came together pretty quickly These really developed fast. Ruined our short term plans all of a sudden. |
|
|
|
Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on May 19, 2018 13:21:35 GMT -6
Looks like I’m gonna get the union split here in st clair
|
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 19, 2018 13:50:32 GMT -6
Storm south of Farmington is darn near stationary.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 19, 2018 13:58:04 GMT -6
And it's done in 10-15 minutes. Had a couple of ~tiny~ hail stones and some estimated 30 mph winds. Not a big deal here.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 19, 2018 14:01:04 GMT -6
The storm south of Viburnum looks like it might be trying to develop some rotation.
ETA... and just that fast the rotation is gone
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on May 19, 2018 16:25:35 GMT -6
That's an impressive line of storm in western MO. Strong rotation aloft in the cell near the apex of the bowing segment.
|
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 19, 2018 16:43:13 GMT -6
That's an impressive line of storm in western MO. Strong rotation aloft in the cell near the apex of the bowing segment. Will it make it here ? |
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on May 19, 2018 17:03:11 GMT -6
Most models seem to think it will make it here... but it will be challenged by the worked over airmass it will be moving thru.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on May 19, 2018 17:17:32 GMT -6
That's an impressive line of storm in western MO. Strong rotation aloft in the cell near the apex of the bowing segment. Will it make it here ? Well...I'm skeptical. At least I don't think the line/cluster of storm will make here severe. Previous storms have stabilized the atmosphere in eastern MO and effective shear decreases further east as well. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on May 19, 2018 18:17:22 GMT -6
Well...I'm skeptical. At least I don't think the line/cluster of storm will make here severe. Previous storms have stabilized the atmosphere in eastern MO and effective shear decreases further east as well. I agree with JMG..Rain and some thunder will most likely makr it to the river...but I doubt severe. The effective bou dary is well to our south now thanks to earlier storms. There is a sharp instability gradient over central to south central MO that marks the outlflow. I expect the northern (and currently warned) small bowing line segment to be near peak now...and should weaken considerably in the next hour. A meger of sorts will take place between its southwest flank and the other storms over SW MO and a pronounced southeast motion should evolve between 8pm and 9pm...taking the core over xoutheast MO...grqzing our southwest counties. |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 19, 2018 18:20:20 GMT -6
That's quite a line of storm cells evenly spaced from central Missouri back to Lubbock and Wichita Falls
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on May 19, 2018 18:23:27 GMT -6
I think tomorrow may be very severe with the boundary on I 70 by afternoon
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on May 19, 2018 18:41:30 GMT -6
I think tomorrow may be very severe with the boundary on I 70 by afternoon That would be my luck. Tomorrow is my son's graduation and I will be out of touch all day. |
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 19, 2018 20:16:42 GMT -6
Stringing out and going flat.
|
|
|
|
Post by ElburnDave on May 19, 2018 21:22:37 GMT -6
Severe t-storm warning for Warren, Lincoln and St. Charles Counties. Potential for wine and hail. Healthy bow echo showing on radar. Cells fired and came together pretty quickly I prefer beer with my hail, but to each his own.  |
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on May 20, 2018 3:05:37 GMT -6
Will the batch in central MO hold together.......
|
|
csafozzie
Wishcaster
Wildwood, MO. Jefferson, Franklin and St Louis County borders
Posts: 139
|
Post by csafozzie on May 20, 2018 4:44:29 GMT -6
Will the batch in central MO hold together....... Not only does is it holding together, by the look of the radar it is intensifying as it enters the area. Could be a noisy morning. |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 20, 2018 5:16:51 GMT -6
And the next batch is queued up in Southwest Missouri and is heading this way. Same question - will that one hold together?
|
|
|
|
Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on May 20, 2018 5:34:42 GMT -6
Looking ESE  |
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 20, 2018 5:59:49 GMT -6
No longer a slight risk today... its marginal.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on May 20, 2018 6:18:41 GMT -6
Hrrr says the stuff out west falls apart whereas the fox2 radar sim (wrf?) brings it through the area. Which is more likely?
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 20, 2018 7:24:55 GMT -6
Looks like it's holding together pretty good; possibly even intensifying and growing in coverage.
Looking further upstream wondering if that batch over DFW is going to head this way, as well.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on May 20, 2018 7:57:38 GMT -6
It is graduation day in the Higgins family. With my son graduating from high school and all the events surrounding that....my updates will not be as detailed today...nor as frequent
So before heading out the door....I am watching a massive spinng area of heavy rain and storms lift slowly out of central and southwest MO. As impressive as it looks on radar...I have my doubts it will make it to STL...at least in its current form. I thinknit will start to slowly fade as it drifts north/northeast...with our western counties of Pike, Montgomery, Gasconade, Phelps, Crawford and Dent most likely to see downpours between now and noon.
That leaves the rest of the area in line for mixed clouds and sunshine with steadily destablizing air. The remnant energy from the system in central MO should work with our destablizing air to reignite storms this afternoon and this evening. A few strong wind gusts, spot large hail and even some flash flooding may be possible because of the slow movement of the storms. The tornado threat is low... but not zero...so it is possible...but far from likely.
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 20, 2018 8:08:17 GMT -6
Dang was hoping to hold off until later to cut grass!! Looks like I better get my butt outside if I want to do it today!
|
|
|
|
Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 20, 2018 8:23:47 GMT -6
It looks like it already rain this morning too! Cutting grass is going to suck today....
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on May 20, 2018 8:41:20 GMT -6
Dang was hoping to hold off until later to cut grass!! Looks like I better get my butt outside if I want to do it today! <iframe width="27.319999999999936" height="2.9399999999999977" style="position: absolute; width: 27.319999999999936px; height: 2.9399999999999977px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none;left: 15px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT1_66405689" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="27.319999999999936" height="2.9399999999999977" style="position: absolute; width: 27.32px; height: 2.94px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1303px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT1_37591538" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="27.319999999999936" height="2.9399999999999977" style="position: absolute; width: 27.32px; height: 2.94px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 15px; top: 88px;" id="MoatPxIOPT1_28326230" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="27.319999999999936" height="2.9399999999999977" style="position: absolute; width: 27.32px; height: 2.94px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1303px; top: 88px;" id="MoatPxIOPT1_63744875" scrolling="no"></iframe> I just mowed. I had to with the risk of the next batch of showers & storms moving in. It was tall and soggy and gross, but I'm leaving for vacation tomorrow and won't get another chance. |
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on May 20, 2018 8:52:57 GMT -6
It is graduation day in the Higgins family. With my son graduating from high school and all the events surrounding that....my updates will not be as detailed today...nor as frequent So before heading out the door....I am watching a massive spinng area of heavy rain and storms lift slowly out of central and southwest MO. As impressive as it looks on radar...I have my doubts it will make it to STL...at least in its current form. I thinknit will start to slowly fade as it drifts north/northeast...with our western counties of Pike, Montgomery, Gasconade, Phelps, Crawford and Dent most likely to see downpours between now and noon. That leaves the rest of the area in line for mixed clouds and sunshine with steadily destablizing air. The remnant energy from the system in central MO should work with our destablizing air to reignite storms this afternoon and this evening. A few strong wind gusts, spot large hail and even some flash flooding may be possible because of the slow movement of the storms. The tornado threat is low... but not zero...so it is possible...but far from likely. Tell your son congrats and good luck with the next chapter in his life!! |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 20, 2018 9:09:05 GMT -6
Hanging together so far. Though it looks to have lost the bow echo
|
|
