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Post by mosue56 on Jun 22, 2018 14:38:54 GMT -6
A couple minute downpour in Bonne Terre at cedar lake!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 22, 2018 15:42:48 GMT -6
Couple of good downpours today. Temps in the 70's all day with rain in late June around here is awesome
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 22, 2018 18:20:32 GMT -6
Monday through Wednesday of next week looking prime for some intense 'ridge runner' MCS complexes (maybe even a derecho or 2) before the motherload of heat comes in Thursday through at least early the following week.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jun 22, 2018 19:42:20 GMT -6
The sky is looking like storms are upon us.
And yet its only a dying sprinkle.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 22, 2018 22:10:15 GMT -6
Nam and even Gfs are prettt robust with storms Monday through Wednesday like Belleville said. Would be nice to get some good rains before the heat wave so we don't dry out too bad. Of course having said that the humidity will be worse but at least we won't be in drought.
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Post by jmg378s on Jun 23, 2018 7:01:38 GMT -6
ECMWF was jussssst a bit unstable around here Wednesday evening....  Ok, not to be taken literally of course. Dewpoint profile especially in the lower part of the forecast sounding isn't realistic....I mean 29C at the surface and very little mixing in the PBL...c'mon. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 23, 2018 8:44:18 GMT -6
Nam shows one hell of a complex moving across the state late Sunday evening followed by more storms tues.
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 23, 2018 10:24:01 GMT -6
The GFS has dewpoints near 80F north of I-70 on Tuesday with prolific convection. We probably need to keep an eye on Monday as well. And like STGOutdoors said I wouldn't rule out something tomorrow afternoon/night either.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 23, 2018 11:07:15 GMT -6
Could late Sunday night into Monday morning be one of those large hail threats along the warm front?
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 23, 2018 11:18:27 GMT -6
Nothing on radar but the sky doesn't look much different than yesterday.
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Post by mosue56 on Jun 23, 2018 11:50:01 GMT -6
Warming up again though, guy!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 23, 2018 14:11:36 GMT -6
Warming up again though, guy! Indeed. At 11 AM on my thermometer it was 80 here. Which is warmer than it was all day yesterday |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 23, 2018 17:00:36 GMT -6
Moderate risk tomorrow out on the plains. Should be a "Big Boy" MCS
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Post by unclesam6 on Jun 23, 2018 19:49:20 GMT -6
Some impressive velocity on an absolute behemoth HP-super down near San Angelo, TX
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 23, 2018 19:58:55 GMT -6
Landed in Boston at 5pm. 1 mile vis in fog and drizzle... 59 degrees. It looked like it was snowing! It was wonderful!
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 23, 2018 20:18:30 GMT -6
I have no idea what's going to happen the next 2-3 days- well I do think Monday morning may be interesting.
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 23, 2018 20:51:02 GMT -6
NAM Monday evening  |
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 23, 2018 21:15:50 GMT -6
It seems between Monday and Tuesday odds look somewhat favorable for some kind of severe watch close to or even including the metro area.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 23, 2018 21:53:20 GMT -6
It seems between Monday and Tuesday odds look somewhat favorable for some kind of severe watch close to or even including the metro area. Some good chances of severe storms the next few days. I think we will see something interesting here, maybe multiple times |
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 23, 2018 21:57:44 GMT -6
A blend of the EPS and GEFS suggests the highest odds of convection are north of I-44 on Monday and along and north of I-70 on Tuesday. Combining Monday and Tuesday together yields an area around Columbia has having the highest odds of seeing severe weather at some point on either Monday or Tuesday. EPS and GEFS are very aggressive with CAPEs on Tuesday, but wind shear will probably be less that day than on Monday. Of course, I have to point out that models (even the ensembles) have hit the northern half of MO pretty hard and it ended up that those setups completely self destructed twice already this year. As is often the case we might not really know the actual risk until the morning of. But, potential is certainly there.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 23, 2018 22:15:17 GMT -6
Ya the models never do to well in these multi day MCS setups, and understandably so. Tomorrow evening through Tuesday night is a good time to keep an eye to the sky
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 23, 2018 22:20:16 GMT -6
0Z GFS has one of those high theta-e force-fed MCS's forming near KC on Tuesday.
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 23, 2018 22:27:29 GMT -6
Dewpoints are stupid high in the corn belt and relatively low in the dryer Mark Twain Forest on Thursday according to the GFS.
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Post by jmg378s on Jun 23, 2018 22:30:36 GMT -6
May have to think about the potential for heavy rainfall at some point as well. With precipitable water values approaching or exceeding 2" at times and high instability combined with periods of scattered storms and MCSs some areas that do manage to get in on repeated action could end up with some hefty rain totals. In fact WPC currently has the area north of I-44 highlighted for a slight risk of excessive rainfall on day 3.
In any case by midday Wednesday should be upstream of the shortwave axis with subsidence/drying and hot humid weather to follow.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 23, 2018 22:42:41 GMT -6
HRRR hints that the MCV from the complexes in Oklahoma and Kansas will survive into south/central Missouri into southern Illinois leading to redevelopment along and ahead of it Sunday afternoon between 3 to 6PM. Could be interesting tomorrow.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 23, 2018 22:48:58 GMT -6
HRRR hints that the MCV from the complexes in Oklahoma and Kansas will survive into south/central Missouri into southern Illinois leading to redevelopment along and ahead of it Sunday afternoon between 3 to 6PM. Could be interesting tomorrow. Great, I have an outdoor party from 2-7 tomorrow. The absolute last thing I need is that thing holding together |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 24, 2018 7:16:09 GMT -6
I have a parade in Staunton this afternoon. I'll be watching...
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 24, 2018 8:22:59 GMT -6
I assume that big line will be moving north into the area by early afternoon. Not to mention anything it sparks in front of it.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 24, 2018 9:59:08 GMT -6
NWS does not seem sold an any severe possibility in the future, givin the zonal forecast. But that could change. Just making a correlation observation.
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 24, 2018 11:27:51 GMT -6
About 75% of the D2 moderate risk from yesterday has now been paired back to marginal. The remaining 25% is a slight risk. Who would have thought that forecasting busts occur in states other than Missouri?
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