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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 25, 2018 20:56:00 GMT -6
Some development now over sw mo. All models agree so maybe it will be a stormy late night into the morning hours.
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on Jun 25, 2018 21:00:57 GMT -6
NAM is just alittle wet over the next 36 hours Map? |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jun 25, 2018 22:17:34 GMT -6
I sure hope to get in on some rain. Missed everything lately.
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 25, 2018 22:47:40 GMT -6
Don't see this in June very often. Jet streak coming around the base should keep storms developing  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 26, 2018 0:48:41 GMT -6
Could you guys share some of the rain? Ditto!! In spades!! So far I got a rock. Although at 2 am things are looking a little promising |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 26, 2018 0:51:35 GMT -6
I sure hope to get in on some rain. Missed everything lately. Me, too. If I've had half an an inch in the last three weeks I'd be surprised. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 26, 2018 2:52:15 GMT -6
Well, this is an interesting snippet from the morning disco:
The warm front will lift north Wednesday night as low level flow
turns to the west-southwest. The GFS spits out some light QPF after
06Z in response to the warm advection...however the ECMWF and NAM
are dry over our area so will hold off adding PoPs for now. Of more
concern is Thursday afternoon/evening. Both the GFS and NAM are
developing a strong MCS over Iowa, and then turning it southeast and
moving the system along the Mississippi River late Thursday
afternoon into the evening. Both models are showing some pretty
extreme instability with MLCAPE in the afternoon in excess of 5000
J/Kg ahead of the MCS track. This set up is reminiscent of the July
19th 2006 derecho which impacted western Illinois and eastern
Missouri. We currently have a dry forecast on Thursday and Thursday
evening and we still have a little while to watch this develop in
the models, but Thursday afternoon and evening could get very
interesting. Regardless of precip chances, it looks hot on Thursday
at the beginning of our heat wave with highs likely reaching the mid
and upper 90s. High humidity in the wake of rain earlier in the
week will likely produce heat index values in excess of 105 degrees
across most if not all of the forecast area.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 26, 2018 3:31:11 GMT -6
Lots of lightning and thunder here, but only light rain. The bulk is JUST southeast of me.
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Post by bear1 on Jun 26, 2018 3:48:57 GMT -6
Same here. got .27" while it lasted.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 26, 2018 4:20:14 GMT -6
I noticed the same thing on the NAM/GFS earlier 99 and that’s the first thing my mind jumped to as well.
Currently getting an deluge here in Arnold with non stop lighting and thunder. I didn’t want to sleep anyway
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Post by dschreib on Jun 26, 2018 4:25:44 GMT -6
2.65" yesterday
5.68" for the month.
Thunder in the vicinity. When the sun pops out, you'll be able to hear my grass grow.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 26, 2018 5:16:30 GMT -6
This looks NASTY from Bloomsdale. I'm not willingly driving into that and choosing to sit here and ride it out a bit.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 26, 2018 5:18:38 GMT -6
Idk, but if these storms don't stop developing out west and sw of here, there won't be much severe wx this afternoon.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 26, 2018 5:20:42 GMT -6
Idk, but if these storms don't stop developing out west and sw of here, there won't be much severe wx this afternoon. Very true, this could be transitioning into more of a flooding threat though. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 26, 2018 5:54:16 GMT -6
Driving from Mascoutah to Arsenal was not exactly easy this morning. I love tropical rain... the drops were the size of tennis balls hahaha.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 26, 2018 6:23:31 GMT -6
Again, the heaviest is south and east of the city.
On the bright side any problems this much rain causes on the rivers will also be well south and east of the city
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Post by bororug on Jun 26, 2018 6:32:57 GMT -6
Just drove from Desoto to Festus for work. Torrential rain from my house to Festus. Many of the small streams/creeks were out of their banks down here. Still pouring
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 26, 2018 6:41:05 GMT -6
Just drove from Desoto to Festus for work. Torrential rain from my house to Festus. Many of the small streams/creeks were out of their banks down here. Still pouring Yea, you'd think a flash flood warning would be issued. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 26, 2018 6:45:44 GMT -6
Not sure how much severe weather we will see today, but flash flooding looks to be a real threat
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Post by REB on Jun 26, 2018 7:00:57 GMT -6
Just so you can compare. In east Belleville I have received. .14" since yesterday. I am a little over one inch for the entire month of June. We need rain.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 26, 2018 7:28:09 GMT -6
Next round coming together out west. Nam nailed this one.
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Post by Tilawn on Jun 26, 2018 8:15:26 GMT -6
Sunshine is peaking out now at my shop behind the house
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 26, 2018 8:57:35 GMT -6
I guess the cluster in central KS is going to blow up and race across the state? That will be the one to watch. In the meantime, more rain is developing over the southern half of the viewing area.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Jun 26, 2018 8:58:21 GMT -6
.20 in the gauge. More please.
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Post by mosue56 on Jun 26, 2018 9:01:56 GMT -6
Flooding at Goose Creek in St Francois Cty near St Genevieve. On Facebook!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 26, 2018 9:04:47 GMT -6
Thinking the severe threat today is pretty marginal but flash flooding is definitely a concern with multiple rounds of deep convection rolling across the state. Definitely not your typical late June pattern...
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 26, 2018 9:24:05 GMT -6
Heat index wise parts of upstate New York and Vermont aren't going to be much better than us this weekend.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 26, 2018 9:36:25 GMT -6
Sunshine is peaking out now at my shop behind the house I have sunshine here now, as well. |
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Post by mosue56 on Jun 26, 2018 9:37:13 GMT -6
Suns out in Festus!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 26, 2018 9:42:06 GMT -6
I have a feeling there is a lot more to come before today is over with.
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