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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 28, 2018 13:46:57 GMT -6
I missed the event earlier this week but I am in town for one day today before heading to my niece's wedding. So vacation day cancel I'm heading in to Chase and/or be chased
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 28, 2018 13:47:04 GMT -6
I missed the event earlier this week but I am in town for one day today before heading to my niece's wedding. So vacation day cancel I'm heading in to Chase and/or be chased
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 28, 2018 13:50:22 GMT -6
According to the SPC, DCAPE is 1600 and Derecho composites are around 6. Im not trying to hype anything up, but thats very supportive of a damaging wind event  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 28, 2018 13:51:44 GMT -6
The turn is taking place and this storm is definitely coming South down the river. Starting to see some forced Q development North of metro Saint Louis
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 28, 2018 13:54:57 GMT -6
SPC Outlook is out. Trimmed back Marginal in Missouri, did not expand Slight Risk much further south, more of a shift into Illinois.
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Post by ajd446 on Jun 28, 2018 13:56:46 GMT -6
I think doc is doing a good job following it bit by bit
But this is a mean storm
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 28, 2018 13:58:10 GMT -6
"IT'S COMING RIGHT FOR US!"  |
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 28, 2018 14:00:25 GMT -6
It looks like this MCS has a substantial upwind propagation vector to it. The mean flow vector is slightly east of the Mississippi River line. The upwind propagation vector is bent across the Mississippi River at a 75 degree angle right now. You can tell it is upwind propagating because the cells on the upwind side (southwest flank) are very robust right now. You can even see the cells are being reinforced in this area building more and more southwest ever so slightly. In a nutshell, this MCS has been propagating right of the mean flow and it's hard to deny at this point that the metro area could be in the path. We'll see how this plays out.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 28, 2018 14:05:06 GMT -6
Southern area of that line is starting to look real mean...
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Post by mosue56 on Jun 28, 2018 14:07:03 GMT -6
Thunderstorm watch up north already!
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Post by mosue56 on Jun 28, 2018 14:11:12 GMT -6
It’s almost to Quincy/Hannibal area!
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 28, 2018 14:19:23 GMT -6
From the SPC disco:
Observational data suggest that the small but long-lived convective
system now propagating southeastward into northeastern Missouri and
west central Illinois may finally be in the process of weakening, in
the presence of increasing inhibition and weakening supporting
forcing for ascent. Strongest convection now appears to be an
evolving cell on the southwestern-most flank of the system. It is
not certain that this will be maintained, but the latest High
Resolution Rapid Refresh suggests renewed development and upscale
growth might not be out of the question south southeastward in the
vicinity of the Mississippi River later this afternoon and evening.
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Post by ajd446 on Jun 28, 2018 14:25:40 GMT -6
I think we need excessive heat warning i am 97 so 81. And tomorrow may break 100 if we heat up as fast as we did today
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 28, 2018 14:40:22 GMT -6
It does seem to be petering out a bit but we should still be affected by it to some degree.
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Post by ajd446 on Jun 28, 2018 14:41:38 GMT -6
It may collapse it is hot in the upper levels
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jun 28, 2018 14:44:09 GMT -6
It may collapse it is hot in the upper levels Not likely with all the humidity to juice it up even more |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 28, 2018 14:52:18 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 28, 2018 15:10:59 GMT -6
New Severe Thunderstorm watch up for Lincoln, Calhoun, Green, Jersey, Macoupin and Montgomery counties.
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Post by amstilost on Jun 28, 2018 15:11:15 GMT -6
That was close...I didn't think they were ever going to pull the trigger on the 'Excessive Heat Warning". It is miserable outside. Hopefully, Gulf Shores, AL and body surfing will take my mind off of this heat.  |
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 28, 2018 15:13:16 GMT -6
The western flank looks like it may want to be more supercell in structure. May see an increase in the hail threat.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jun 28, 2018 15:21:09 GMT -6
The western flank looks like it may want to be more supercell in structure. May see an increase in the hail threat. Sure has some wind in it  Edit: Also a severe watch out now and turning right more. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 28, 2018 15:24:01 GMT -6
There’s the watch for the metro. That southern flank is starting to look really healthy
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 28, 2018 15:32:15 GMT -6
It maaaaaaaaay just miss my house to the north. But BRTN might be in a better spot.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 28, 2018 15:38:36 GMT -6
Small cells seem to be developing just ahead of the SW corner and then merging in to the main MCS
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Post by yypc on Jun 28, 2018 15:41:46 GMT -6
How big is the hail in the western flank? Are we talking broken car windows?
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Post by ajd446 on Jun 28, 2018 15:44:49 GMT -6
Looks like a hook trying to form
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 28, 2018 15:57:58 GMT -6
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jun 28, 2018 16:01:54 GMT -6
We’re in the watch, but it sure looks like it’s going to miss us.
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dadof6
Weather Weenie
Posts: 58
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Post by dadof6 on Jun 28, 2018 16:08:13 GMT -6
Small cells seem to be developing just ahead of the SW corner and then merging in to the main MCS I’m east of BRTN. Just went under warning here in Staunton in macoupin county |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 28, 2018 16:18:04 GMT -6
Looks like it'll miss me east, unless more development happens west.
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