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Post by bdgwx on Jul 20, 2018 16:15:50 GMT -6
Give credit where credit is due...I show both Lambert and Spirit hitting 99. That's pretty close. And it's also impressive because according to the RAP analysis 850mb temps were 20C and surface winds were from the W or even NW the entire day.
It's been said multiple times, but it'd sure be nice if they could make the aircraft soundings public.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 20, 2018 16:54:23 GMT -6
Iowa DOT caught the Bondurant tornadoes on an I-80 traffic cam
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Post by Snowman99 on Jul 20, 2018 17:03:03 GMT -6
Looks like the Marshalltown tornado was ef 3 with winds of 144mph. There were a couple ef 2s i believe also.
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Post by REB on Jul 20, 2018 17:15:26 GMT -6
17 precious lives lost due to negligence. It makes me sad ,but more than that, it makes me very angry.
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Post by ajd446 on Jul 20, 2018 19:56:08 GMT -6
Oh I am pisssssssssssed and sorry bout the language of what happened to the duck.
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jul 20, 2018 21:33:52 GMT -6
9 of the fatalities were the same family? Holy s#*t.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 20, 2018 22:19:18 GMT -6
If some of the new sets of models coming in are on the right track with temps on Sunday; it would be quite possible that areas along and east of the Mississippi River might not even get out of the mid 70s with an overcast sky. Almost hoodie weather... Almost. When was the last time we've seen mid 70s for a high, early/mid May? Maybe this is a sign of things to come along with the seasonable to somewhat cooler then average August the CFS is printing out as well as the IRI.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 20, 2018 22:20:52 GMT -6
Two of the victims my dad knew. They were a married couple. We just found out today. They were the two from STL. MY dad is a DJ. The gentlemen was also a DJ. Very sad indeed.
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Post by ams3389 on Jul 21, 2018 1:02:35 GMT -6
Chris made a post on fb and the casual person is tearing him and everyone else a new one lol. These people I just don’t understand. Just reporting facts here. Nothing else. I see nothing wrong with post. I feel so sorry for all involved. While the storm was forecast and predicted, it didn’t come out of no where. I think folks just underestimated the storm. The captain calls back to base before entering and someone there gave the greens light. Driver was experienced of 16 years and gave it his all. So close to land yet so far away. Life jackets on would have trapped all as it sank. Still so many questions.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 21, 2018 1:19:00 GMT -6
Just read the captain had told the passengers they wouldn't need life vests. When the boat got in to trouble it was too late.
The negligence on this thing just doesn't stop!
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 21, 2018 7:41:10 GMT -6
So do we know what time they entered the water? There's conflicting information about whether they just entered or were already on their way back.
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Post by ams3389 on Jul 21, 2018 8:01:14 GMT -6
So do we know what time they entered the water? There's conflicting information about whether they just entered or were already on their way back. I believe they were already out and on their way back in. They would have beat the rain. I don’t think they expected the gust front which cost them. Ducks go out rain or shine but if lightening in area they don’t go on water. I still wouldn’t have cleared them to go out but they have done this for almost 50 years so I’m sure they have it down to a science. Sadly this is most likely the once in a lifetime type event. I hope they can tweek the ducks and it can still be a tourist attraction |
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Post by Tilawn on Jul 21, 2018 10:05:03 GMT -6
So do we know what time they entered the water? There's conflicting information about whether they just entered or were already on their way back. I believe they were already out and on their way back in. They would have beat the rain. I don’t think they expected the gust front which cost them. Ducks go out rain or shine but if lightening in area they don’t go on water. I still wouldn’t have cleared them to go out but they have done this for almost 50 years so I’m sure they have it down to a science. Sadly this is most likely the once in a lifetime type event. I hope they can tweek the ducks and it can still be a tourist attraction There was a similar situation in 1999 in Arkansas |
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Post by ams3389 on Jul 21, 2018 11:47:15 GMT -6
I believe they were already out and on their way back in. They would have beat the rain. I don’t think they expected the gust front which cost them. Ducks go out rain or shine but if lightening in area they don’t go on water. I still wouldn’t have cleared them to go out but they have done this for almost 50 years so I’m sure they have it down to a science. Sadly this is most likely the once in a lifetime type event. I hope they can tweek the ducks and it can still be a tourist attraction There was a similar situation in 1999 in Arkansas The one in Arkansas wasn’t affiliated with Branson Ducks |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jul 21, 2018 13:08:48 GMT -6
There was a similar situation in 1999 in Arkansas The one in Arkansas wasn’t affiliated with Branson Ducks The similarity was the type of craft |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 21, 2018 14:03:26 GMT -6
As I've restated multiple times on FB....the purpose of the story is not to point the finger of blame at anyone or any entity. The investigation still has a long way to go. But the number one question in everyone's mind is what was the weather at the time of the crash and why was the boat out there? To even begin to answer those questions, you MUST look at the timeline of the events. The public wants that information and frankly the public has a right to have that information. I sincerely respect the opinion of those who feel the story was in poor taste - but I disagree. I am most certainly not pointing to the passengers - they are vacationers who became victims. But serious questions need to be asked now about why the boat was out on the water when the storm hit when warnings were issued 30+ minutes before hand. Something went wrong and we need to figure out what...how and why...and fast...so it does not happen again. I can guarantee, had the same thing happened and NO warning or watch been issued, the public would have been breaking down the door of the NWS in Springfield...THAT NIGHT...looking for answers..and rightfully so. I would have been one of them...and I would have done this exact same story...outlining the facts of when the storms formed...the strength they showed...and the times they arrived at Table Rock. It is a matter of presenting the facts as they are discovered so as to keep inaccurate statements like "it came out of nowhere" or "there was no warning" from taking over the narrative. Because as we all know, the more it gets said...if it is not true...the more people believe it.
Prayers to the families and friends of the victims.
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Post by ams3389 on Jul 21, 2018 14:13:23 GMT -6
The one in Arkansas wasn’t affiliated with Branson Ducks The similarity was the type of craft Oh I understand. I just don’t think this ride needs to be banned. The tourist attraction is a staple and I will ride again. Folks pass in car accidents and plane crashes etc. life will go on. They just need to better themselves for the future. So many questions still to be answered. |
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Post by yypc on Jul 21, 2018 14:15:09 GMT -6
Good work Chris! Im sure the lawyers for the Duck Boat Co are feeding the owner that narrative. He will likely have to use an “unpredictable act of God” defense at trial. Surely there will be some weather experts involved.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jul 21, 2018 14:24:00 GMT -6
The similarity was the type of craft Oh I understand. I just don’t think this ride needs to be banned. The tourist attraction is a staple and I will ride again. Folks pass in car accidents and plane crashes etc. life will go on. They just need to better themselves for the future. So many questions still to be answered. Well, they better come up with a solution to what needs to be done in a sinking. Simply going down with the ship is unacceptable. Boats sink. Shouldn't mean better than 50% chance of death. They were on a populous Lake, not some isolated stretch of open ocean. Serious design flaw. Actually it's beyond design flaw. Experts say those boats simply are not meant for this. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 21, 2018 15:04:23 GMT -6
chris i hope you are happy with the changes taking place. looks like you may be up with the corner ppl slicing and dicing the midnight runs. as for car, my 2010 malibu has 262k miles on it. been a chevy fan since late 80s. took alot of heat for driving a honda around in the 80s. the terrain on american made vs foreign has changed no doubt. but its hard wired in my brain. no hondas or toyotas for me. just like i dont ever look at off hour model runs. i know ppl on here trust them. (had to tie this post to weather). only complaint i have on my malibu....headlight and thermostat.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 21, 2018 17:11:08 GMT -6
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jul 22, 2018 9:05:36 GMT -6
If it is true that the crew told folks to not use the life jackets they must have known about the dangers of the canopy. Such a screwed up thing.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jul 22, 2018 15:43:00 GMT -6
I'm sure we'll find out more as the investigation progresses, but do we know the protocol of how they approached severe weather? Do they have someone continually monitoring it? I know that my phone gets push notifications when there is a warning issued for the county that I am in-- did they have access to that?
I understand that there was plenty of warning in place, but I truly wonder for the accessibility of this information. Someone would have had to have been monitoring the situation before hand and would have been aware of something approaching. I can't truly begin to think if anyone "running the show" actually knew this storm was on a collision course with the lake, along with it's wind history would have thought twice about sending anyone out.
I was discussing it with one of our production assistants last night-- I showed her a typical severe storm warning product and she told me, "That looks like a manual, I can kind of understand what they're trying to say, but if I was in a situation where I am trying to figure out if it effects me and where I am (well aware we can't cover every single person...), there needs to be something other than a wall of text. All I really first noticed from this was 'Severe Thunderstorm Warning' in bold text."
We talked about all different ways that could be made more accessible to the general public because not everyone is a "weather weenie". We thrive on that stuff, we love that text product stuff like anything because it's simple for us to break down and understand. For others, it may not be that easy. I'm in no way faulting the NWS for their process, however I think there needs to be some serious thought put into simplifying the science (and they have definitely made those strides in the past decade) if we really want to have the public become engaged in taking warnings seriously.
Maybe special warning products for people within the vicinity of dense recreation? Who knows... we do special lake warnings up north? There's a lot of people in the water down in Southern Missouri every summer...
Or maybe even special facebook live coverage from the NWS... Or maybe we keep that the job of the local news outlets. I'm curious the accessibility of coverage on a platform like facebook last Thursday...
Just some food for thought, my two cents... et cetera.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 22, 2018 15:55:39 GMT -6
I'm sure we'll find out more as the investigation progresses, but do we know the protocol of how they approached severe weather? Do they have someone continually monitoring it? I know that my phone gets push notifications when there is a warning issued for the county that I am in-- did they have access to that? I understand that there was plenty of warning in place, but I truly wonder for the accessibility of this information. Someone would have had to have been monitoring the situation before hand and would have been aware of something approaching. I can't truly begin to think if anyone "running the show" actually knew this storm was on a collision course with the lake, along with it's wind history would have thought twice about sending anyone out. I was discussing it with one of our production assistants last night-- I showed her a typical severe storm warning product and she told me, "That looks like a manual, I can kind of understand what they're trying to say, but if I was in a situation where I am trying to figure out if it effects me and where I am (well aware we can't cover every single person...), there needs to be something other than a wall of text. All I really first noticed from this was 'Severe Thunderstorm Warning' in bold text." We talked about all different ways that could be made more accessible to the general public because not everyone is a "weather weenie". We thrive on that stuff, we love that text product stuff like anything because it's simple for us to break down and understand. For others, it may not be that easy. I'm in no way faulting the NWS for their process, however I think there needs to be some serious thought put into simplifying the science (and they have definitely made those strides in the past decade) if we really want to have the public become engaged in taking warnings seriously. Maybe special warning products for people within the vicinity of dense recreation? Who knows... we do special lake warnings up north? There's a lot of people in the water down in Southern Missouri every summer... Just some food for thought, my two cents... et cetera. Luke, It really isnt a matter of IF a company had access to it... a business is responsible for the safety of their paying customers. It is their responsibility to GUARANTEE access to it as part of their business operations...whether that is via cell phone, weather radio, internet, etc. It is also a businesses responsibility to understand the information and interpret it properly. If a business fails to do so, and it results in injuries...or worse...they should be held accountable. Pretty much every cell phone now alerts if a warning is issued for your area. There is only so much we in the weather business can do to simplify this. Oversimplify and the data is useless...and you cannot possible tailor warnings for every possible scenario. We can only provide the warning...that is OUR expertise...but how that kind of weather may impact a business is THEIR expertise. |
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Bruce - N0NSR
Weather Weenie
Posts: 57 
Snowfall Events: 2.5" - Jan 15, 2015
0.5" - Feb 4, 2015
2.0" - Nov 14-15, 2018
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Post by Bruce - N0NSR on Jul 22, 2018 18:59:27 GMT -6
I've been thinking since first hearing news of the accident why they were even on the lake. Even my parents have a radar app on their smartphone and watch it when the clouds start rolling in - they can figure out if they're in the path of an approaching storm. In this day and time, it's a simple matter for a business to keep an eye on the weather. You don't necessarily have to have a trained meteorologist on staff (sorry Chris) to figure out if you're likely to be affected. I'm sure we'll all be second-guessing till the final accident report comes out, but one thing I wonder about also is whether the company's estimation of how much rough weather the boat could handle was overblown. There's nothing like actual experience to learn a lesson that you'll remember. My flight instructor let me totally scare myself by staying out in the practice area too long when a storm was approaching the airport - till then it was all theoretical knowledge.....
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jul 22, 2018 19:10:31 GMT -6
Bruce, I dont expect everyone to have a meteorologist or even have the knowledge, but erroring on the side of extreme caution has to be the rule when you are in charge of the safety of others. Ive heard some mention the boat may have already left before the warning was issued. That's fine...but then you turn the thing around the minute the warning is issued. If they had no way of receiving that warning out on the water....then that is a HUGE problem. Those are definitely things that investigators will be looking into.
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Post by Jeffmw on Jul 22, 2018 19:24:11 GMT -6
Feels like Early September outside.
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jul 22, 2018 19:34:50 GMT -6
Apparently, a surviving family member in the family that lost 9 has come out and stated that the ducks reversed their course....BECAUSE THEY KNEW THE STORM WAS COMING. They normally do the land portion first, but decided to do the water portion first to try to beat it and b back on land when it hit, trying to find a link.
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Bruce - N0NSR
Weather Weenie
Posts: 57
Snowfall Events: 2.5" - Jan 15, 2015
0.5" - Feb 4, 2015
2.0" - Nov 14-15, 2018
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Post by Bruce - N0NSR on Jul 22, 2018 19:49:04 GMT -6
Bruce, I dont expect everyone to have a meteorologist or even have the knowledge, but erroring on the side of extreme caution has to be the rule when you are in charge of the safety of others. Ive heard some mention the boat may have already left before the warning was issued. That's fine...but then you turn the thing around the minute the warning is issued. If they had no way of receiving that warning out on the water....then that is a HUGE problem. Those are definitely things that investigators will be looking into. Agreed - always error on the side of caution. I've ridden the Ducks multiple times and the last time, I was able to Facetime my great-niece "driving" the duck out on the lake for her grandmother so there's cellular reception. There should have been phones sounding off like crazy when that warning was issued. Also, if I remember correctly, they have radios in the vehicles and they checked in with someone before entering the water. |
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jeeper
Wishcaster
Rosewood Heights, IL
Posts: 183
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Post by jeeper on Jul 22, 2018 20:02:59 GMT -6
We were camped just outside of Springfield MO, at the KOA (Between Springfield and Republic basically, three miles from the airport or so (Farm Road 140 if you know the area). I had been watching/tracking that storm for the better part of the afternoon, knew it was coming in...but I gotta be honest...when that gust front hit, it was earlier than I expected it, and it came in fast...and strong. KY3 (I think it was them) TV out of Springfield said they had a 75MPH wind at the airport (that's what I remember) and they were begging people who might have families/friends "out on the water" to contact them and warn them...Springfield is roughly 45 miles or so north of Branson/the lake. It was a massive strong straight line wind Fortunately, there was a good line of trees on the edge of the campground which broke the wind. Then calm...about five to seven minutes later (best guess, I was too busy watching the TV in the outdoor kitchen of the camper) the main front came in...and the tornado sirens went off. The campground folks didn't warn anyone, no "get to the bathrooms, ect... California folk in the camper next to us had no clue what to do...so we marshelled everyone we could to the bathrooms. And just that quick, it was over. Maybe ten drops of rain with the whole thing. One heck of a lot of wind...And I certainly was not expecting the tornado sirens. Very little warning...the weather channel was busy reporting wall to wall on the big tornados up north...fortunately, I was able to pull up a decent radar even where we were...
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