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Post by jmg378s on Sept 10, 2018 5:26:05 GMT -6
Holy crap! I mean this *could* be a glitch, but if not we're going to need some hurricane warnings ASAP! I'd put landfall somewhere around Union...  |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 10, 2018 5:35:20 GMT -6
I have not heard anything about rainfall rates from this system that just went through. I'm going to guesstimate that some of the stuff I drove through on the way home Friday night had to be in excess of 3 in per hour. Anybody get one higher than that?
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 10, 2018 5:44:58 GMT -6
Holy crap! I mean this *could* be a glitch, but if not we're going to need some hurricane warnings ASAP! I'd put landfall somewhere around Union... Yeeehaaaww! Giggdyup ya'll! |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 10, 2018 5:47:41 GMT -6
They will most likely lose thousands of acres of corn and soybeans along the Little Wabash from this event. It's incredibly flat next to the river in many areas and it spreads out for miles and miles when it floods. If it didn't do that it would get much higher during these events
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 10, 2018 6:08:14 GMT -6
The weather prediction center already has a large area of North Carolina and Virginia projected over a foot of Rain by early next Monday. The rule of thumb is I believe 100 divided by the miles per hour for maximum rainfall from a tropical system. So if the average speed drops below 5 miles per hour 2 feet is pretty easy to come by. If it actually comes to a complete stop for any period of time you can see how absurd it can get
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Post by mosue56 on Sept 10, 2018 6:20:16 GMT -6
They are talking about something in the Gulf developing in the Yucatán area and Isaac besides Florence all by the weekend hitting land! Three at the same time! Amazing! This is why I don’t mind living in MO!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 10, 2018 6:23:34 GMT -6
I'll have to see how it develops but I may have hit a snag in my trip. Canada's Weather Network is saying I could be hitting major snow as I get northwest of Edmonton and towards the southern end of the Alaska Highway tonight into tomorrow
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Post by mchafin on Sept 10, 2018 6:25:02 GMT -6
Didn’t Dave say something about not worrying about the tropics in the long range?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 10, 2018 6:33:32 GMT -6
Didn’t Dave say something about not worrying about the tropics in the long range? He did. I feel bad for saying this since he is retiring but he missed that one big time. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 10, 2018 6:39:22 GMT -6
Microwave and IR data show the eyewall is nearly closed with a large CDO...Florence is looking very healthy this morning and should continue to deepen.
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Post by mosue56 on Sept 10, 2018 6:46:30 GMT -6
The three at the same time this weekend is just Atlantic! Totally forgot Hawaii! My gosh! So much at one time!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 10, 2018 6:49:44 GMT -6
That wave getting ready to enter the gulf is looking pretty healthy too. Could be two MAJOR flooding areas in the US by the end of the week if it becomes a storm and sits on the TX coast.
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Post by mchafin on Sept 10, 2018 7:38:53 GMT -6
Didn’t Dave say something about not worrying about the tropics in the long range? He did. I feel bad for saying this since he is retiring but he missed that one big time. Given Dave's longevity, I doubt he would be displeased with this criticism. That said, since he missed this one, perhaps it's a prelude of things to come. Follow this thought: He said not to worry about the tropics. Wrong. He said that this winter won't be that great for the snowbunnies. Maybe Wrong, too? I'm just being sassy. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 10, 2018 7:59:06 GMT -6
That beast is "breathing" very well right now. Look at the scope of the outflow...I hate that this is going to inevitably cause a tremendous amount of damage and loss of property and likely loss of life, but you can't help but admire it spinning out there in the ocean. You just hope people heed the warnings and get the hell out of the way. Depending if/when it parks, it is going to be devastating over the higher terrain of the eastern Appalachians as well as the Lowcountry of the Carolinas. Also wouldn't shock me if this is a Cat. 5 at some point before weakening a bit on approach to land.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 10, 2018 8:43:58 GMT -6
Working this morning at Scott AFB... and with the potential for multiple threats in the next week or so... wondering if we may get tapped for support.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Sept 10, 2018 8:59:56 GMT -6
Working this morning at Scott AFB... and with the potential for multiple threats in the next week or so... wondering if we may get tapped for support. You would have to think that is likely |
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 10, 2018 9:35:08 GMT -6
Working this morning at Scott AFB... and with the potential for multiple threats in the next week or so... wondering if we may get tapped for support. Potential AF interests in Hawaii and Guam as well, eh? |
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 10, 2018 10:01:13 GMT -6
New data in...946mb and 130 mph winds.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 10, 2018 10:05:39 GMT -6
New data in...946mb and 130 mph winds. She's bombing out! |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Sept 10, 2018 10:09:44 GMT -6
NEW: Florence is now a category 4 hurricane. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter indicate that Florence has continued to rapidly strengthen and has maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (195 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 946 mb (27.93 inches) hurricanes.gov She has really got her act together. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 10, 2018 10:10:48 GMT -6
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Post by yypc on Sept 10, 2018 10:59:47 GMT -6
GFS has a sub 910mb monster sitting just off the coast of NC for ~80 hours before finally making landfall. That seems like worst cast scenerio for flooding and destruction.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 10, 2018 11:26:50 GMT -6
GFS has a sub 910mb monster sitting just off the coast of NC for ~80 hours before finally making landfall. That seems like worst cast scenerio for flooding and destruction. Canadian does this too, but not as strong. NAM also looks like it wants to park it just off shore. Seems very unlikely and would be unprecedented. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 10, 2018 11:27:26 GMT -6
GFS has a sub 910mb monster sitting just off the coast of NC for ~80 hours before finally making landfall. That seems like worst cast scenerio for flooding and destruction. Looks like it even gets down to 900mb per 12z gfs. YIKES!!! |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 10, 2018 11:31:31 GMT -6
GFS has a sub 910mb monster sitting just off the coast of NC for ~80 hours before finally making landfall. That seems like worst cast scenerio for flooding and destruction. Looks like it even gets down to 900mb per 12z gfs. YIKES!!! GFS always well-overcooks low pressures. Even with typical mid-lat cyclones. With that being said it has really bombed out today, and I stand by my thinking that this will be a Cat. 5 at some point in its life. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 10, 2018 11:37:36 GMT -6
Looks like it even gets down to 900mb per 12z gfs. YIKES!!! GFS always well-overcooks low pressures. Even with typical mid-lat cyclones. With that being said it has really bombed out today, and I stand by my thinking that this will be a Cat. 5 at some point in its life. Ryan Maue is a good follow... Apparently gfs isn't coupling with ocean conditions when it is stalled. Solution is completely erroneous. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 10, 2018 11:54:33 GMT -6
GFS always well-overcooks low pressures. Even with typical mid-lat cyclones. With that being said it has really bombed out today, and I stand by my thinking that this will be a Cat. 5 at some point in its life. Ryan Maue is a good follow... Apparently gfs isn't coupling with ocean conditions when it is stalled. Solution is completely erroneous. Ya not even saying that is what is going to happen. Just scary to look at for those folks. That would be awful! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 10, 2018 12:58:25 GMT -6
I think a track that stalls inland would be a much worse scenario for many more people and one that is more likely, IMO. The mountainous terrain where orographic enhancement takes place would see astronomical rainfall totals...as well as closer to the coast. To make matters worse, it has been a very wet summer across the SE, with some stations recording the wettest on record...so the soil is primed for flooding and landslides.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 10, 2018 13:12:48 GMT -6
I think a track that stalls inland would be a much worse scenario for many more people and one that is more likely, IMO. The mountainous terrain where orographic enhancement takes place would see astronomical rainfall totals...as well as closer to the coast. To make matters worse, it has been a very wet summer across the SE, with some stations recording the wettest on record...so the soil is primed for flooding and landslides. I’ve been reading on other forums people from Virginia saying how wet of a summer it’s been around there and even garden variety thunderstorms are causing flooding. I can’t imagine what 20”+ of rainfall would do |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 10, 2018 13:26:26 GMT -6
I think a track that stalls inland would be a much worse scenario for many more people and one that is more likely, IMO. The mountainous terrain where orographic enhancement takes place would see astronomical rainfall totals...as well as closer to the coast. To make matters worse, it has been a very wet summer across the SE, with some stations recording the wettest on record...so the soil is primed for flooding and landslides. And much of that area has been already saturated with a couple of slow moving lows. |
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