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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 10, 2018 13:32:47 GMT -6
It looks like Helene will be a non-issue dying in the middle of the Atlantic
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 10, 2018 13:33:29 GMT -6
They probably got quite a few dams up in those hills too. This could get really bad
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 10, 2018 14:40:45 GMT -6
And keep in mind, modeling tends to under-predict QPF in heavy QPF events, especially extreme events. While on the other end it tends to over-predict QPF in light QPF events. So the 30-50" inch totals coming out of some runs of some models, especially in the higher terrain, is believable IF the system stalls inland.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 10, 2018 14:50:37 GMT -6
NAM Looks like it keeps it off shore...seems unlikely and the American models are likely failing at this pretty bad at the moment.
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 10, 2018 14:59:37 GMT -6
Latest WPC 7-day outlook has a 15+" contour for the mountains of Virginia.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 10, 2018 16:16:07 GMT -6
Latest WPC 7-day outlook has a 15+" contour for the mountains of Virginia. They could have more than that less than 5 full days from now. |
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davem
Weather Weenie
Posts: 9 
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Post by davem on Sept 10, 2018 16:57:00 GMT -6
Hi Everyone...Dave Murray here...as I wind-down my work at Fox 2...last shows Friday at 5 and 6pm...want to thank everyone here for their support over all these years...I love all your interest in weather...you are all great!
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 331
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Post by bob on Sept 10, 2018 17:08:51 GMT -6
Hi Dave will miss your weather reports and hope you have a wonderful
and well deserved retirement. hope you will still Facebook your long range forecasts and also drop in here to give you insight on the weather.
Thanks again Dave!!!
Bob
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 10, 2018 17:15:36 GMT -6
It's been a pleasure watching you over the years Dave. I echo the previous comment and hope you chime in here often! It'll feel for us like you never left.
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320
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Post by Jeke on Sept 10, 2018 17:51:35 GMT -6
Dave...My wife and I have watched you from the beginning except for when you were on national network. Didn't watch any of the AM shows. Also watched Janice but can't remember if she was on your channel or not. Long, long time ago.
Best of luck to you and your family. As suggested do stop in here whenever you like and keep us advised of any future endeavors you engage in.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 10, 2018 18:43:21 GMT -6
Best wishes, Dave! Enjoy the deserved retirement.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 10, 2018 18:44:05 GMT -6
Dave, I remember you from 82. I really do. Have a wonderful retirement. You earned it.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 10, 2018 19:20:16 GMT -6
Really going to miss you Dave! You have been awesome! Enjoy your retirement. Hope you and your wife do alot of traveling! And most importantly having your evenings together! 😉
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Sept 10, 2018 19:21:31 GMT -6
Dave thank you for the long hours keeping us safe during our dangerous weather.... Fox 2 is by far the best !! Good luck and enjoy your retirement!!
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Sept 10, 2018 19:27:50 GMT -6
Best wishes Dave. Thank you for all of your years of professionalism and making us all feel like a little piece of your family. You will be missed but never forgotten! It is only fitting that you have one last major weather story to cover before you sign off.
Enjoy retirement.
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Post by mchafin on Sept 10, 2018 20:04:21 GMT -6
One of the best! Best of luck to you Dave in your retirement. Don’t be a stranger!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 10, 2018 20:14:37 GMT -6
A bit of turmoil in the core of Flo at the moment...lengthy eyewall replacement and reorganization it looks like. Still a healthy system but the next advisory may see a slight rise in pressure.
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Post by yypc on Sept 10, 2018 20:28:31 GMT -6
Dave - when I was in 6th grade I was given an assignment to watch and record the weather every day for a month. I tuned into your forecasts, and afterwards convinced my parents to buy me various weather books and got really into it. Im 32 now and still every bit as interested in weather. Just want to say thank you and good luck in your retirement.
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 10, 2018 20:37:05 GMT -6
Latest VDM from recon has Florence at 945mb and I see a slight secondary wind max in the recon trace. It does appear there is at least an outer eyewall with a remnant inner on the 4 hour old microwave. After the probable eyewall replacement Florence enters warmest water and highest ocean heat content yet with continued low shear.
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Post by amstilost on Sept 10, 2018 20:53:08 GMT -6
Dave, congratulations and thank you for the many years you have kept myself and my family informed and safe. I moved to Missouri from CA in Aug of 1988, and if I could only tell you the number of times that either my wife or daughters yelled out the door or windows of the house saying, "Dave's on". That is how you kept my family safe, by them calling me inside to watch the weather.  I echo what others have said, I wish you the best, you deserve it. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 10, 2018 21:01:47 GMT -6
Given the convection around the core over the last half hour or so I bet Flo will be stronger at its next advisory. May be Cat 5 when we wake up. Looks like it's about to bomb again.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Sept 10, 2018 21:05:37 GMT -6
He did. I feel bad for saying this since he is retiring but he missed that one big time. Given Dave's longevity, I doubt he would be displeased with this criticism. That said, since he missed this one, perhaps it's a prelude of things to come. Follow this thought: He said not to worry about the tropics. Wrong. He said that this winter won't be that great for the snowbunnies. Maybe Wrong, too? I'm just being sassy. I was leaning to a snowy forecast compared to recent years. Relative to solar cycle, we tend to have our greatest winters immediately after minima, and immediately after El Nino. We are not yet at minima, but this solar cycle was weak. There was also an uptick in volcanic activity and we rarely have 3 consecutive winters of well below 30 year average snow. I'm still graphing out trends in teleconnections, so I'm not quite ready to commit yet. I think October will be telling. The one thing I am concerned about - technically last winter was quite active with extensive snowcover across the conus. It really just missed St. Louis, but we were in a drought. I think the thing that helps us this year is that we are knocking down the plains drought. El Nino will take care of the Texas drought. If I had to bet right now, my money would be on the Farmers Almanac vs Old Farmers Almanac. Sure, we may see something in between, but if I had to choose between the two...
now that all said, I do believe we are within 2 years of seeing a blockbuster winter. Even if it doesn't happen this winter, I think we will see things more favorable for snow. What will make this winter hard to predict is that we won't see the cold that we saw last year. We will rely on bowling balls generating their own cold. I think El Nino may be displaced further west than your typical El Ninos and this will allow the Jetstream to dip into the lower Midwest, and if the dip is favorable, will allow for the flow to slow enough to allow healthy storms to develop. I would be even more confident if we were just a bit further south - I think southern areas of the stl forecast area and northern areas of the pah area may get several significant snowstorms, but again, let's see what October holds in store for us.
Climatologically speaking, it seems to me that we are on the cusp of a period of colder and snowier winters than we've become accustomed to. I was never excited about the last two winters - 2 years ago I predicted 6 inches of snow, and last year I predicted 9 inches of snow. We ended up well below my predictions both years, but a lot of people were excited about last winter. I've always been keeping this winter or next winter under my hat as something to watch in terms of a blockbuster winter. Solar cycles, also, seem to more readily impact the weather patterns in large land masses such as across the globe, and tend to lag another year behind for North America. That could temper my "outlook" for this winter, but I think right now, we should see at least normal snowfall.
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Post by mchafin on Sept 10, 2018 21:59:39 GMT -6
I'm no expert on hurricane forecasting, but with both the GFS and NAM saying that Florence is going to hang out off the coast, is there a reason that the NHC sees it coming onshore? Asking for a friend.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Sept 10, 2018 22:20:12 GMT -6
I'm no expert on hurricane forecasting, but with both the GFS and NAM saying that Florence is going to hang out off the coast, is there a reason that the NHC sees it coming onshore? Asking for a friend. The euro and ukmet... Plus, the 00z gfs brings it onshore now. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 10, 2018 22:30:19 GMT -6
I don’t believe the GFS takes into account ocean upwelling either which makes its solution of Florence just spinnning off the coast very unlikely. Last I checked the upgraded “FV3” GFS takes it onshore much like the euro
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Sept 11, 2018 0:43:29 GMT -6
Hi Everyone,
Just wanted to give you all an update. Just like Hurricane Irma, I will be chasing this storm. Pending all goes well, I have booked my flight and a private stay in New Bern, NC about 1/2 mile from the river.
They are forecast to go under a hurricane watch here shortly and model runs show it taking a near direct hit.
I will bring this one to you live. Likely through my Facebook page if there is another better live feed please let me know. I know last time I never brought u the footage. I did take a direct hit from a tornado with Irma but was in no mood as I lost my fiancé just before I left. It’s a new year and all is well and I’ll do anything I can to get you all some good footage.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 11, 2018 3:14:38 GMT -6
Hurricane watches issued for the NC and SC coasts.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 11, 2018 4:13:38 GMT -6
Storm is a bit ragged internally this morning.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 11, 2018 4:31:28 GMT -6
Still going through eyewall replacement. Could take all day, could be over in a few hours. Once it's over, it should intensify again.
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 11, 2018 5:53:26 GMT -6
Hi Everyone, Just wanted to give you all an update. Just like Hurricane Irma, I will be chasing this storm. Pending all goes well, I have booked my flight and a private stay in New Bern, NC about 1/2 mile from the river. They are forecast to go under a hurricane watch here shortly and model runs show it taking a near direct hit. I will bring this one to you live. Likely through my Facebook page if there is another better live feed please let me know. I know last time I never brought u the footage. I did take a direct hit from a tornado with Irma but was in no mood as I lost my fiancé just before I left. It’s a new year and all is well and I’ll do anything I can to get you all some good footage. Just make sure you find a blue shed  |
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I echo what others have said, I wish you the best, you deserve it.
