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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 3, 2018 12:13:17 GMT -6
Looking at Key West and Miami radars it appears Gordon has a very tight inner core. Yes it does. Now over open water we will see what it can do. |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Sept 3, 2018 13:02:18 GMT -6
Had a track loader scheduled for delivery tomorrow am for a week. Just pulled the plug on that
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 3, 2018 14:01:15 GMT -6
Eastern eyewall looks good, if it can wrap up around the western side this things got a good chance of getting to solid Cat 1 strength before landfall around Biloxi to Gulfport, MS maybe even a slim chance of a low-end Cat 2. These small storms can intensify quite rapidly under the right conditions even in short amount of time. Just look at Charles or was it Charlie back in 2004 That thing went from a low-end storm to a cat 4 within 8-12 hours of landfall over Florida. It can happen.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 3, 2018 18:30:48 GMT -6
Gordon up to 60mph now as of the 7PM CDT advisory. Should make it to hurricane tonight if not tomorrow morning.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 3, 2018 18:47:53 GMT -6
Gordon looks like a light t storm on ir sat.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Sept 3, 2018 18:49:39 GMT -6
Check out the Missouri river on the radar! Fog or bugs?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 3, 2018 20:27:37 GMT -6
Hurricane Warnings now to the right of Gordon's eye
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 3, 2018 20:37:08 GMT -6
Gordon looks like a light t storm on ir sat. The satellite imagery of it looks very disorganized. Ive been busy lately and haven't had time to keep up with Gordon or the tropics in general. I guess the NHC expects some quick organization before it makes landfall again to issue hurricane warnings |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 3, 2018 20:37:30 GMT -6
I am not liking how this pattern late this week is setting up at all!
A weak front stalling out somewhere from Missouri into Illinois...already enriched by tropical moisture will get a supercharge hit of moisture when Gordon pulls north. Things could get ugly quickly. This is likely to not be the only bought of tropical rain as the pattern appears to be set-up to repeat...almost like a pitching machine.
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Post by Tilawn on Sept 3, 2018 20:47:07 GMT -6
I am not liking how this pattern late this week is setting up at all! A weak front stalling out somewhere from Missouri into Illinois...already enriched by tropical moisture will get a supercharge hit of moisture when Gordon pulls north. Things could get ugly quickly. This is likely to not be the only bought of tropical rain as the pattern appears to be set-up to repeat...almost like a pitching machine. Great!! Can’t keep up with the growth of the lawns now much less after many days of tropical rain possibly. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 4, 2018 0:18:38 GMT -6
Given Chris's prediction, and given that the major rivers in Iowa are already in flood, and they continue to get thunderstorm's with only a one day break before Gordon's moisture arrives there should we get a head start and begin filling sandbags and putting up the flood walls now?
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 4, 2018 0:44:35 GMT -6
With the track of the remnants of Gordon so far consistently modeled being across central in to northern/ne MO, I would think the heaviest rainfall would be up there. With many inches possible. In our area being on the south and east side of the system, if there is still a good circulation, we could have some severe wx..and tornadoes. Depends on some things obviously, but large scale that's what I see anyway.
Mississippi and Missouri river flooding could become an issue in coming weeks, maybe as far south as St Louis. I sure wouldn't start freaking people out. Let's see what Gordon does and how the end of the week and weekend play out.
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 4, 2018 9:36:12 GMT -6
GEFS and EPS have the highest totals along the MO/IA border. Of the hurricane models HWRF matches the globals pretty well both in terms of track and rainfall amounts. HMON and COAMPS have a more southerly track and higher rainfall totals for us. I'm going to discount the HMON run for now because it's an outlier and it's rainfall amounts in MO are laughably absurd.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 4, 2018 9:39:53 GMT -6
Even if the core remnants go north, we will still be in a favorable position for some rounds of heavy rain and storms. We have several days of very hot and humid weather leading up to this as well. Just kind of a gut feeling that most of us will get plenty wet from this setup.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 4, 2018 9:50:57 GMT -6
Well... turns out I am 0-for-2 when it comes to promotions this summer.
I failed to get the chief job... and then I found out last night that I was passed over for promotion to Lt Colonel. There is less than 20% chance I'll get picked up on my second try next summer...so it looks like my USAF career may be over.
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Post by cozpregon on Sept 4, 2018 9:59:45 GMT -6
Sorry Chris- I think it's beer time.
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Post by cozpregon on Sept 4, 2018 10:00:14 GMT -6
PWs won't be a problem for heavy rain.  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 4, 2018 10:02:05 GMT -6
Yes, so sorry Chris. You are so deserving of it too!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 4, 2018 10:03:40 GMT -6
Wow Chris I am sorry to hear that. Unfortunately this kind of thing happens all too often, and usually has its roots in some political BS. Someone kissed a little (or a lot) more arse than you. As someone who has followed you for a really long time, I would bet something like that got in your way. I can't speak to your proficiency in the military, but I'm sure you are head and shoulders above most others just like you are in the weather world. Sometimes it is the "failure" to be promoted that makes us re-evaluate where we are in our lives and careers. It does give us the opportunity to debate whether we settle in and get comfortable after accepting that we didn't get what what we deserved, or we take some time to reflect on another door that is sure to open.
You know how everyone feels here, and most if not all of us have been shot down on something we deserved in the past. Keep on keepin' on. Who knows, maybe there's a reason for all this. From my experience, there is.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Sept 4, 2018 10:04:32 GMT -6
Chris, so sorry to hear that. You definitely deserved both!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 4, 2018 10:28:03 GMT -6
Well... turns out I am 0-for-2 when it comes to promotions this summer. I failed to get the chief job... and then I found out last night that I was passed over for promotion to Lt Colonel. There is less than 20% chance I'll get picked up on my second try next summer...so it looks like my USAF career may be over. Sorry to hear. Discouraging is too weak of a word for it. |
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Post by mchafin on Sept 4, 2018 10:37:10 GMT -6
Well... turns out I am 0-for-2 when it comes to promotions this summer. I failed to get the chief job... and then I found out last night that I was passed over for promotion to Lt Colonel. There is less than 20% chance I'll get picked up on my second try next summer...so it looks like my USAF career may be over. I'd love to know the thought process on the chief decision, but that's probably a beer conversation. I will say this -- my viewing habits are going to change. And I'll leave it at that. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 4, 2018 10:50:43 GMT -6
Flood warning just went up for Grafton. Going above flood stage on Sunday with additional rises expected.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 4, 2018 10:57:49 GMT -6
Good thing Gordon won't be over water much longer. Radar suggests its starting to really get its act together.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Sept 4, 2018 11:20:08 GMT -6
Chris, you are most deserving of any and all promotions coming your way. It does always seem to be some of political or other factors and not always the "best person for the job", gets what they deserve. Keep your head held high. You have a loyal following of people that depend on you for your forecasts and expertise and most importantly, a loving family. You do have a lot of people behind you. But it still stings for sure
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 4, 2018 12:52:41 GMT -6
Well... turns out I am 0-for-2 when it comes to promotions this summer. I failed to get the chief job... and then I found out last night that I was passed over for promotion to Lt Colonel. There is less than 20% chance I'll get picked up on my second try next summer...so it looks like my USAF career may be over. I stand with everyone elses sentiment-- would have loved to see you at chief. As far as public outreach, especially how you've dominated the social platform, especially over the past several years... it's likely put more butts in seats to watch the T.V. broadcast than a lot of these "consultants" give credit for. You're easily the best in the business across the bi-state region when it comes to tracking and covering weather, even getting in the thick of it with the storm runner... but "what do we know" Sorry to hear it, Chris. |
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 4, 2018 13:19:20 GMT -6
The 12Z Euro has widespread 4" amounts especially on the northwest side of I-44 with isolated 6"+ amounts in the next 5 days. At least up until the 12Z global model runs I'd say the hurricane models have been better at advertising the rainfall risk for Missouri and Illinois. We're still waiting on all of the products from the 12Z hurricane model runs, but I wouldn't expect any significant changes from previous cycles.
If you have plans for the weekend I would start considering the possibility of a washout on either Friday, Saturday, or Sunday. It's certainly not a given yet considering we're still several days out, but model trends are starting to move toward this direction. And a track sort of up and along I-44 or at least through Missouri is climatologically favored so it's not like this scenario would be out of the ordinary.
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Post by jmg378s on Sept 4, 2018 15:42:50 GMT -6
99 may need to post "that" meme again...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 4, 2018 20:36:36 GMT -6
Mobile 88d is showing winds in excess of 80 mph in the quasi-eye wall that is crossing the coast near Pascagola right now... that's around 2k feet. So...a standard reduction gets that really close to hurricane force right now...but probably just a touch below...and on par with the 70 mph winds in the 4pm advisory.
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Post by ams3389 on Sept 4, 2018 23:34:30 GMT -6
Well... turns out I am 0-for-2 when it comes to promotions this summer. I failed to get the chief job... and then I found out last night that I was passed over for promotion to Lt Colonel. There is less than 20% chance I'll get picked up on my second try next summer...so it looks like my USAF career may be over. I'd love to know the thought process on the chief decision, but that's probably a beer conversation. I will say this -- my viewing habits are going to change. And I'll leave it at that. I second this. Chris should have been Chief. No questions asked. |
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