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Post by mosue56 on Sept 26, 2018 10:26:36 GMT -6
It doesn’t know how to stay cool in MO! Almost Oct and still warm!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 26, 2018 10:32:22 GMT -6
I noticed that last night's Euro run now shows Pacific tropical activity coming onshore in the southwest part of the CONUS. This has been a scenario the GFS and PGFS have been showing for days. So if that scenario does indeed pan out then great job by the GFS on sniffing that out. I saw Rosa was turning north in the Pacific. Was wondering if it was going to get far enough north to get caught by the westerlies |
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Sept 26, 2018 10:49:47 GMT -6
The Pueblo NWS is tracking Rosa's moisture for early next week. Rain on me! Just not while we are packing out the house starting Wednesday.
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Post by mosue56 on Sept 26, 2018 11:53:22 GMT -6
Where are you going, Labrat?
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Sept 26, 2018 11:59:18 GMT -6
Where are you going, Labrat? Offutt AFB, Bellevue NE |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 26, 2018 12:00:12 GMT -6
Where's that front? My outside a/c unit is humming but won't kick on. Anyone know their hvac? From what I've read maybe as simple as the capacitor. Could be. Compressor may be getting tight. Capicitor is cheap. I would give it a shot. If it doesn't work call the pros |
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Post by mosue56 on Sept 26, 2018 13:05:39 GMT -6
Nebraska has fun winters too, Labrat! When do you have to be there?
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Sept 26, 2018 13:42:13 GMT -6
Nebraska has fun winters too, Labrat! When do you have to be there? We drive out on the 12th. We closed on a house this past Monday and I start a new job on the 23rd! |
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Post by mosue56 on Sept 26, 2018 15:15:38 GMT -6
Let us know when you arrive safe, Labrat! Will you miss COSprings?hope you were able to see lots of Colorado scenery while you were there!
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Sept 26, 2018 15:22:47 GMT -6
Will do! I won't miss it out here, was never a fan of this area. We did get out to Cripple Creek and down to the San Isabels. I get carsick, so windy mountain roads are not good for me.
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 26, 2018 20:26:03 GMT -6
I've seen a few posts over the years with the hypothesis that ENSO cycles or solar cycles may be predictor of snowfall for St. Louis. I decided to test these hypothesis. To do this I compared official seasonal snowfall at Lambert since 1950 with the ONI value from here and sunspot numbers from here. For the ONI I picked the DJF value corresponding with the season in consideration. And for the sunspot data I computed the DJF mean myself and used that. I chose to use sunspot data because it is a pretty good proxy for total solar irradiance and it's easy to find data back to 1950. So what were my results? For ENSO the coefficient of determination (R^2) with snowfall was less than 0.01. For solar activity/radiation the R^2 was again less than 0.01. What does that mean? It means there is essentially no correlation between snowfall and either of these of variables. In other words, if you can predict ENSO or solar cycles in advance (usually possible) you'll still have essentially zero skill in predicting how much snowfall the airport will get. What about considering ENSO and solar activity/radiation together? Yep, you guessed it. There is essentially no correlation whatsoever. I even tried finding a correlation between these variables and whether we could at least predict if snowfall would be above/below average. Still nothing. The statistics say it's impossible to draw any conclusions about how "good" our winter will be from either ENSO or solar cycles. Who knows...maybe I made a mistake so if anybody has anything to add please feel free to do so! |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 26, 2018 20:38:02 GMT -6
Where's that front? My outside a/c unit is humming but won't kick on. Anyone know their hvac? From what I've read maybe as simple as the capacitor. Could be. Compressor may be getting tight. Capicitor is cheap. I would give it a shot. If it doesn't work call the pros Gave the fan a kick start tonight to see what would happen. Took off then started rattling real bad. I have a bad feeling about this one. Been one thing after another lately. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 27, 2018 7:17:56 GMT -6
Could be. Compressor may be getting tight. Capicitor is cheap. I would give it a shot. If it doesn't work call the pros Gave the fan a kick start tonight to see what would happen. Took off then started rattling real bad. I have a bad feeling about this one. Been one thing after another lately. oh boy. Have you checked my return message yet? |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 27, 2018 8:50:02 GMT -6
Gave the fan a kick start tonight to see what would happen. Took off then started rattling real bad. I have a bad feeling about this one. Been one thing after another lately. oh boy. Have you checked my return message yet? Just did...will respond soon. Does a rattling usually indicate the compressor? I mean it is very loud. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 27, 2018 10:49:34 GMT -6
Couldn't resist posting this. Hopefully it hasn't been circulated too much.
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Post by yypc on Sept 27, 2018 18:19:02 GMT -6
90s are back next week
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 27, 2018 18:51:36 GMT -6
Ya its going to be pretty warm for several days next week, but looks like a good cool down after that. Pretty typical temp swings for this time of year |
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Post by mosue56 on Sept 27, 2018 18:59:42 GMT -6
Noooooooooooo 90s! I just turned my air off! Argh!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 27, 2018 20:17:27 GMT -6
On his Facebook page Dave Murray said somewhere around October 10 is looking like a pretty strong cool down.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 27, 2018 20:19:29 GMT -6
On his Facebook page Dave Murray said somewhere around October 10 is looking like a pretty strong cool down. Models have been showing this for a while. All part of the step down into fall and eventually winter. I could certainly do without what looks like a hot early to mid next week though. I was just sitting out on my patio enjoying the crisp fall air. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 28, 2018 3:19:02 GMT -6
I read online that the euro will start running 6z and 18z runs soon. That could make winter storm forecasting that much more fun
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Post by guyfromhecker on Sept 28, 2018 3:51:08 GMT -6
oh boy. Have you checked my return message yet? Just did...will respond soon. Does a rattling usually indicate the compressor? I mean it is very loud. Really not sure, but it sounds like it. You only have two moving parts out there. Fan and compressor. If it ain't the fan it must be. www.rossandwitmer.com/ac-compressor-noise-when-you-should-worry/ |
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 28, 2018 4:48:58 GMT -6
Starting Oct 1, the Euro will have 6z and 18z runs available commercially. Yay!
Edit: lol..just noticed I was beaten to this. Sad!
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 28, 2018 6:54:30 GMT -6
That's pretty cool actually. It looks like the EPS will be provided 4 times a day as well.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Sept 28, 2018 7:06:14 GMT -6
With the addition of the "off hour" runs of the EURO, things should be that much more furious around here. Are the off hour runs of the GFS still wrought with errors? IS the data used to initiate them any different than what they used to be? I only ask because I havent model surfed in quite some time. I havent had the time. I hope that the EURO "off hour" runs are as good as the regular runs. Friday is my second favorite F word! Have a great day everyone!
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 28, 2018 8:18:13 GMT -6
These are called "Medicanes". The waters north of Libya are warm enough (barely) to support semi-tropical development right now. The FSU cyclone phase page lists this as being in the grey area between warm-core and cold-core so it's probably technically subtropical.  |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 28, 2018 8:41:40 GMT -6
I-90 at the Wyoming/Montana state line this morning. Most of I-90 in Wyoming looks similar.  |
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 28, 2018 8:44:21 GMT -6
And here is an even more rare phenomenon taking shape. Watch the Arctic region over the next week or two. Models have been forecasting an incredibly rare warming event that will take place. The Euro has this as +4 SD event and I've even seen some model runs approaching +4.5 SD. For those that don't know SD is standard deviation. A +4 event is said to have a 1-in-10,000 chance of happening. +4.5 is 1-in-100,000 odds. So this is a very unusual once in 100yr (or higher) event.  |
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 28, 2018 9:12:16 GMT -6
With the addition of the "off hour" runs of the EURO, things should be that much more furious around here. Are the off hour runs of the GFS still wrought with errors? IS the data used to initiate them any different than what they used to be? I only ask because I havent model surfed in quite some time. I havent had the time. I hope that the EURO "off hour" runs are as good as the regular runs. Friday is my second favorite F word! Have a great day everyone! I believe the off-hour runs were problematic at one point, but this has since been resolved. NOAA's official position is that the 6/18 cycles are almost always better in most respects than the previous 0/12 cycle for the same forecast time. And yes, the off-hour runs assimilate new data. Having the off-hour runs is pretty useful for a few reasons. First, you can form a time-lagged ensemble by mentally morphing the last 2 or 4 runs together to get an average. Second, it also helps to discern the stability of the forecasts. If the different cycles have a lot of variability from run-to-run then that particular weather pattern is likely sensitive to new data inputs and thus your confidence of a forecast is lower. It's basically a way of teasing out what the signal-to-noise ratio is on the forecasts. I suspect the Euro off-hour runs will be just as good as the GFS or better. The Euro uses a more advanced data assimilation system that I suspect will result in their off-hour runs being more consistent with their on-hour runs as compared to the GFS. Just a hunch on my part. I can't back that up with facts though. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Sept 28, 2018 9:21:31 GMT -6
Thank you bdgwx.
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