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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 22, 2018 12:06:07 GMT -6
Hurricane Willa in the Eastern Pacific looks impressive. GOES-16 raw T# is up to 7.3 which is the highest I've seen so far. Recon is en-route now...will they find a Cat 5 storm? 925mb...160mph sustained. It's been a helluva hurricane season! Wow!!! I feel sorry for that small island chain off the coast of Mexico!
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Oct 22, 2018 20:42:35 GMT -6
I’m in the gulf on a cruise until Saturday . It can stay over on that side!
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Post by dragons7stegen on Oct 23, 2018 11:25:20 GMT -6
Too good not to share with you all. From my dad as he finished up soybean harvest. imgur.com/MGSehjJ
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Oct 23, 2018 20:03:26 GMT -6
Too good not to share with you all. From my dad as he finished up soybean harvest. imgur.com/MGSehjJawesome
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 23, 2018 20:56:12 GMT -6
Check out Super Typhoon Yutu in the Western Pacific. That thing is about to turn into a monster. Northern Mariana Islands (pop. 50,000+), which is a US territory by the way, may be in trouble.
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 24, 2018 3:11:09 GMT -6
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arnoldmo
Weather Weenie
141 and Astraway, Arnold MO.
Posts: 29
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Post by arnoldmo on Oct 24, 2018 4:53:10 GMT -6
Welcome to Arnold, Chris.
It is darn cold as you said. 33.8*
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Post by Tilawn on Oct 24, 2018 5:07:37 GMT -6
With so much frost and then 27* on Sunday morning the grass is still growing.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 24, 2018 6:23:14 GMT -6
Raw satellite T# for Yutu is 7.8...insane! Extrapolating the motion it looks like Tinian and maybe even Saipan may get a strike or even landfall. If that does happen it will be yet another major hit for the US. I drew in black the approximate location of Tinian and Saipan (Northern Mariana Islands) in the satellite image.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Oct 24, 2018 6:33:54 GMT -6
Yeah, interesting stuff. The only thing that was continually supported was a colder 2nd half of winter. Otherwise, sounds like his model needs some tweaking to account for some of the nuances this season. Thanks for posting.
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 24, 2018 10:19:15 GMT -6
It looks like most people from the now defunct AccuWx forums have flocked to WXDisco.
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 24, 2018 10:49:44 GMT -6
That was a good read. Eurasian snow cover is low, but North American snow cover is high. He feels like that may support an early start to winter in the northern CONUS. He mentions Arctic sea ice extents a lot but there are a lot of unknowns in how that factors in. I will say that super low extents during the winter haven't exactly helped our cause down here, but there really aren't enough samples to make definitive conclusions since these radical anomalously low extents only began in earnest around 2007.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 24, 2018 11:37:47 GMT -6
some of our coldest and snowiest winters have been slow starters. he has good points. but a more west based el nino and a positive pna shld keep any prolonged mildness from setting in, imo. we just dont want to be under where the split jet converges. i think the jets will converge further west this year on average and that will allow some southern plains storms to spin up.
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 24, 2018 11:42:05 GMT -6
The GFS is tentatively scheduled for a major update on 1/24/2019. This update will replace the embedded GSM model with the FV3 model. This is by far the biggest change the GFS has ever had. There is a huge amount of information regarding the change at the following site. www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/Alicia.Bentley/fv3gfs/
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 24, 2018 19:55:29 GMT -6
I haven't seen anything official, but I think the center of Yutu may have passed over Tinian Island. If so, with 180mph sustained winds that would make it the second strongest tropical cyclone on record for the US.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 25, 2018 7:09:37 GMT -6
Chris what is your big announcement? New storm Pilot? It's hard to make out the blurred (teaser) pic. Lol
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Post by maddogchief on Oct 25, 2018 7:24:40 GMT -6
Nice little battle of winter forecasts shaping up once again.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Oct 25, 2018 8:11:30 GMT -6
Shut this baby down. New thread coming shortly!
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